Carvers Gap

@Holston_River_Ramblerthat was a good, ol' fashioned NAMing....err, GFSing? Happy Hour rides again.

Models seem to be keying on next weekend. Could be a cutter or could be snow about 2500'. The 0z Euro has it. The 6z GFS has a clean pass beneath our latitude. I think the Canadian had something as well. Long shot but worth watching. Overall, the cold pattern is still on time and formidable. The most recent ensembles remain cold. The operationals are cold. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see them get colder. This morning's MJO even shows realistic potential that it could loop back through the cold phases and do it all again...or even stall at low amplitude in cold phases. For most of us that it going to mean cold rain, maybe some pleasant days in the 40s/50s, and maybe some days where it is raw and windy. Nights have the potential to be quite cold. Could be some big swings between nighttime lows and daytime highs. Misery index could be at times significant for outdoor sports people, especially evening stuff. As for the mountains, snow there is becoming more likely with each passing run. I would even think the Plateau is fair game. NE TN, SW VA, SE KY.....outside chance to see some measurable snow. Mood flakes are plausible. This pattern does have the potential to spin one up. Duration? Cold has rarely lasted this winter to the extent or intensity that modeling depicts. Right now, this "appears" (famous last words!) to be a true pattern change which means 4-6 weeks. Now, that isn't all misery as daytime high averages increase rapidly from this point forward. So, BN isn't like BN during winter....but it isn't overly springlike either. I would think that measurable snow chances are off the table after the 20th for the valleys. That said, if there was ever a pattern to do something strange...this is up there w/ some good ones. I want warmth for April. I have held off starting my tomato and pepper seeds. I know the ground isn't going to be ready by week 3 of April IMBY. I am looking at a later planting than normal - maybe the second week of May. Fava beans could go now though.

I don't think the 12z CMC is correct(will likely trend much more NW), but that is how you get winter in March. Again, looks suspicious to me and is playing catch-up.

Right now I can see three cold fronts: 11th, 13th, 18th. Each gets increasingly BN in regards to temps. It is important to note that average temps are increasing. Temps may stay in the upper 40s to low 50s all month in a local for example(there will be more fluctuation than that...just an example). That temp set gets progressively much more BN as we get later in the month. Make no mistake, this looks cold.

Those are the details that long wave patterns are unable to show at range. Basically we get a cold front which lasts 2-3 days. As that cold decays, we get warm that builds in behind it(rolling ridge if you will). Then the next from rolls through. These cold shots are going to be legit. Pattern still looks very much base cold.

12z GFS is verbatim snow for middle and west TN, but I think this is the normal bias...and eventually during future runs it cuts west w/ snow in Indy and rain for the forum area. It just about has that now. 12z CMC is a forum area event, but I think it is just catching up to the GFS...which hasn't caught up to the western trend this winter. This is not a complaint but just general amusement. It has been amazing to see systems along the coast trend into the Plains all winter. I don't think I remember that being such a huge bias/adjustment across modeling in the past. Again, it is at range, so not surprising to see changes. I just don't remember seeing the same bias play out over and over again. We almost want the system in Bermuda(no hyperbole) at 7-8 days out. Used to the Caroinas would suffice to account for the NW jog! LOL.

Nice look. 6z is decent as well. Kuchera is big. The GFS has had a tendency to start here and end up in Indianapolis regardless of setup. The other two models have it....just east. The Euro is a good look but slightly late. For those just now tuning in...this is about 8-9 days out there, so be sure to know that. That look is 100% going to change. Maybe if I speak in a absolutes, it won’t. LOL. But it will change.

When the MJO hits phase one at that extreme, I would suspect we see potential for a severe cold shot. I don’t see that on modeling yet, but that is how I interpret that. We did a phase 6-7 like that (off the chart) a season or two ago...that was extreme warmth.

Cold and suppressed.

John, I always thought Nino winters were bigger for Mammoth(transition there has occurred it appears). I am not sure all of that snow melts this summer. If they get a big Nino winter(looks likely) next season, they could end-up w/ a seasonal snowpack that stick around for a couple of seasons. At the very least, the snow pack will likely sticks around until August or September.

Kuiper Belt.

I can't even imagine 700" of snow. That is incredible. I saw a ton of snow at Crater Lake last year. They had a building buried to the second floor in early June. What it took to get to that point is astounding. Thanks for the link. I will give it a look.

My take on the 12z GFS....I am must going to enjoy the next few days of basking in early spring weather, and pretend it is gonna last all month.

Just looking at the 12z GFS. The "warm-up" after the initial cold shot might not actually be a SER. It looks to me like a chinook is over the southern Rockies, and that air will mix into the pattern. Now, if you follow severe wx...that could pop some big storms. You can see the next cold shot cutting off that chinook. March is rarely boring.

John, what is your link on that? Sounds cool. Yeah, I agree. I would like to see one of those big snows as well. I was fortunate to see a Pacific gale last summer(no snow), but it was impressive. Mammoth is near and dear to us for two reasons....snow and it is where Olympic distance runners train during summer(my family has runners...not Olympians!). I was looking at Euro seaonsals...I am not sure all of that snow melts this summer there.

45-50 for highs w/ the sun shining is no problem. It is those evening/night soccer games, baseball games, and track meets which are gonna be dicey, especially if raining as you note. Deterministic and ensembles are cold this morning. Those nice, deep purple colors for temperature departures are back - and well inside of day 10. I will enjoy the cold snap when it arrives. But trust me, if it is blunted, I won't be complaining. This weekend should be seasonal. Next week, modeling drops the hammer. Again, for me, the question isn't really if the cold arrives...it is the duration and intensity of the cold. FWIW, temps IMBY look particularly cold for Tuesday-Friday of next week. Modeling has been focusing on those dates for weeks. It would not surprise me to see lows in the upper teens(if clear and not windy) at some point w/ highs in the upper 30s/low 40s. That is going to be a shock to the system.

Whatever is 5-12F BN around the 15th. I think WJHL warned everyone this AM about the return of much colder temps.

The Euro Weeklies, which I thought were derived from a warm run, basically maintain the upcoming blocking pattern from March10-April10....and I HOPE it is warm from the on!!!!!!!!

Broke towards cold after being in conflict with its own ensemble for 10-11th.

Pretty big changes by the 12z GFS. Interesting.

The MJO is almost off the charts in phase 8. Crazy look this morning.

Of note, the 0z Euro control does continue its recent daily tradition of a NE TN paste storm around mid-month. The operational was close. Nothing set in stone. Again, higher elevations, SE KY, the Plateau, SW VA, NE TN, and W NC....have better climatology for spring snow.

I should add that medium-range modeling is signaling a higher elevation, upslope snow event around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on.

Cold weather looks on schedule. For now, we will say 10-14 days in duration. This is going to likely come in waves as the spring season is going to send warmth north after each cold air mass grows stale. As I mentioned before, it will be interesting to see if the cold can erase the AN departures of the first few days. Again, the real question for me is whether this cold snap is a long term pattern change at our latitude. I lean 55/45 that it is, maybe 60/40. I do think that the air mass will be less extreme than originally modeled, but still likely to be very cod. Honestly, I am not a huge fan of winter in March. So, I will gladly take the less extreme version if that is the hand we are dealt. The coldest days could be 8-12 degrees BN. Temps should be around normal by the weekend w/ next week likely being the coldest (roughly around the 15th). Winter wx is not off the table, but cold rain is more likely!

From the MRX afternoon disco: Midweek another system will begin moving across the center of the country, and increasing moisture return brings richer moisture into our region. This equates to low rain chances on Wednesday in the southern valley and then more widespread on Thursday afternoon. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light but steady from Thursday going into Saturday, so no impacts are expected. Early look at storm total rainfall is a half inch to an inch. Differing guidance solutions over placement of the rain and evolution of this weekend`s synoptic pattern change leave plenty of uncertainty. However, there is building confidence in cooler weather and frost/freeze issues beginning at the end of this period.