Carvers Gap
-
Posts
15,695 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
Yeah, man. That helps with the super scary fire conditions you all were having to deal with. Huge.
-
I think Grit said it best in the MA forum(or it could have been GaWx or both...I am too lazy to go back and look), the MJO is likely going to fire along the equatorial dateline in the Pacific. Right now, 8-2-1 don't favor a cold SE....but do when we head deeper into winter. We have discussed that some earlier(either this thread or the winter spec thread) that the MJO would be likely be a key driver due to the Nino event(and warming SSTs in that region). Great explanation in the MA forum, and worth a read. The 8-2-1 teleconnects to a warm SE right now, but is much colder when centered on DJF vs NDJ or OND.
-
As for the Euro...it has been less dependable during recent years. Honestly, it seems to have the same cold bias as the CMC. It is especially bad during shoulder season. The GEFS seems to have a bigger warm bias of late, but......it seems more dependable during shoulder season though. Right now, it seems modeling tried to inaccurately push a polar air mass into the region at range. That could still verify, but looks less likely. And that is more of a Euro bust....GEFS likely scores the win as it appears to have had a more muted intensity and duration for the Thanksgiving "cold" snap. That said, the Euro identified the switch to cooler first if I remember correctly(at 500 on the Weeklies). But models being inaccurate is not unsurprising given that modeling past d8 really is just halfway decent at longwave patterns. A blend of modeling seems to be working really well right now. Nino climatology favors a move to a SE trough at some point between the last week of December and the third week of January. The timing of that is crucial, and modeling seems to be centered on the last week of December, but......modeling has already this year (on at least one occasion) had a similar lock(and I do mean locked-in) at range, and now looks like it will whiff. For now, it is probably better to ride with Nino climatology...and just say a SE trough is likely by mid Jan. Models will often be too quick to remove a warm eastern air mass(especially w/ little or shallow snow cover over the Plains). Cold source TBD.
-
18z GFS must have gotten a dose of the CMC. Frigid.
-
Also, bout time for the first thread for winter. We can do it by month(Dec, then Jan, then Feb), or we can just do a winter pattern discussion thread part I, and then restart a new thread when part I gets full(or we need some new mojo). Whoever starts the thread, gets to choose. December starts in 11 days, so we are well within range to start it. One year we had a medium and long range thread, and then had a short range thread for days 1-5. We can do that also.
-
Anyone have the link for model verification comparisons? It seems like the GFS is busting badly on temps (warm bias), and the Euro is too cold at range. Usually, it is the other way around.
-
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Powell, we will be praying for you all. -
I am no expert on middle TN. I do think El Nino's tend to be somewhat below climatology the further one goes west in the forum. It does look like eastern areas should see some improvement during the next 30 days. The GOM is what will break the drought ultimately along w/ an active STJ. It will take some time to recover from this. Right now we need cooler weather and even marginal rain - that will end fire season in its tracks. What we don't need are hot days and low humidity like we have had. I think that is at an end.
-
Hopefully, law enforcement will be in these areas looking for any mischief. Fire agencies and forestry folks are going to have to be on their toes.
-
12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8. TIFWIW
-
These discussions are awesome!
-
That is an MVP post right there.
-
Truly, the d8-16 range is pretty impressive at 500mb. Get your hands on all three global ensembles and see for yourself. It certainly could be a head fake, but that it how you draw it up.
-
The 12z GEFS has moved to the 12z EPS/CMC solution. A robust cold delivery mechanism is modeled as being in place beginning just after Thanksgiving. NO IDEA if that verifies, but it is impressive for this early in the season.
-
Massive amounts of HL blocking during that time frame. Euro has the same set-up. No idea where it goes after it traps a piece of the SPV...
-
The 12z Euro looks more like the CMC at around 100hr than the GFS. That is a crazy looking pattern. Real feels would be well below zero. Again, I don't think that is right, but interesting to see this early. Let's see where the Euro goes.........
-
Is that a piece of the SPV on the 12z CMC that pays us a visit? Again, I don't think that is right, but man...
-
The 12z CMC is just insanely cold...low single digits the week after Thanksgiving. That can't be right. Looks like a feedback issue.
-
I think we are gonna be good, but may have to wait a bit. The 18z GEFS did budge slightly towards the other global ensembles. I don't trust the Euro ensemble at this time of year though.
-
Early winter season model war: 12z EPS/GEPS(very cold) vs 12z GEFS (initial cool down followed by warm-up) Vastly different after d8......
-
Rain chances look to be increasing. I don’t think enough to break the drought, but considerably more than what we have had...which isn’t saying much.
-
To further clarify, the Thanksgiving cold shot looks like a reality. Then there is a brief warm-up. The duration of that warm-up, and ensuing cold is what I am interested in. The 500mb pattern after that brief warm-up looks formidable. It might be a head fake as shoulder season modeling is infamous for bad takes in the LR.
-
We've seen this head fake once already this year (trough in the East and ridge in the West). What we are seeing on modeling could also be a false start for winter which is highly common for Nino winters. BUT......ensemlbes (both weeklies and global ensembles) are fairly consistent in showing decently cold pattern during early December. My guess would be that it would ease up, and maybe we are just tracking a 5-7 day cold shot...but modeling is currently showing a longer duration cold event.
-
The Euro Weeklies (control and mean) continue to depict a robust Nino pattern for the second week of December. Transitions occurs prior. 6" snow mean for NE TN and SW VA. Control has snow into New Orleans.
-
The 12z CMC is flirting with single digits late in its run...and well, the 12z GFS is interesting.
