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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, when I envisioned this winter...that 12z GFS run is how I envisioned it(maybe a bit more compressed in terms of frequency). Lots of warmth, but intrusions of cold w/ some chances if timing works.
  2. Carvers Gap
    WARNING: GFS at range. The 12z run wasn't terrible.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has a similar set-up but phases less....but not a terrible look either.
  4. Carvers Gap
    It is only 198 hours out there, and it is on the GFS....but that is the general idea. LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It has been a while since the end of Feb and beginning of March were decent. Kind of an MJO nugget this AM, many models are trying to race through warm phases at low amplitude and cut quickly to 7/8. Even the 6z GEFS is not overly warm after d10(big warmup prior to that). Maybe this is the year where we see 1-2 more windows in the valleys after Feb 20? For your troubles....
  6. Carvers Gap
    This was a textbook over-running event in west TN. When we see cold charge into TX w/ a slight eastward push...it often doesn't make it past the Plateau or even to the Plateau at all. Wave after wave of frozen precip rolled through that area. Modeling did a great job with this event, especially the CMC and RGEM. The Euro was very late in recognizing where the cold air boundary was. Also, the GFS(which was thrown out by some services) was very close to being right w/ its cold air boundary. The GFS has been decent inside of 5 days.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That sound about right. I am watching the timeframe of Feb11-14 as a cold front(timing TBD) is rolling under that big ridge. It would be thread the needle, but is the only game in town after the ice storm.
  8. Carvers Gap
    So, January(after crazy warmth) would close with an ice storm in middle and west TN. West TN, Arkansas, northern MS....those regions appear to have had it the worst. The ice storm would roll into February as it has one foot in one month and one in another. There is a thread dedicated to this event.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that snow storm in the LR is hurting my warm-up.
  10. Carvers Gap
    It is going to likely get warm - almost a certainty. The trick is can we score a snowfall during a warm-up. February is the kind of month where that can happen. Absolutely no promises on my part...this is a stretch, but still interesting.
  11. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba.
  12. Carvers Gap
    JB mentioned it yesterday. He said it reminded him of 2018. Man, nothing like a good strat split to end the month and extend winter into April. LOL. I am going to put up my hoop house this week just so I can hear the strat crackle.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS shows the trough amplification. The EPS shows a weakness. In the force that slips beneath our latitude on the 11th.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I mean it is going to very likely get warm. But a cold front is pretty much our best shot during a warm pattern. I suspect it will be marginal at best, but you never know.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I am mildly interested in the timeframe around Feb 11th. That is a possible seasonal cold front. Most runs have been not had much cyclogenesis along the front...but never know.
  16. Carvers Gap
    It is early in west TN! I did see a post on FB that Rutherford Co bridges and overpasses are very slick and should be avoided. Interstate interchange there is a sheet of ice.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Gopher wood supply chain issues. Better stock up now! And that is great to hear! Hey, if Alabama wants to pay the bills, I think that is great! My former grocery bagger was telling me that his wife used to have a little heater they took to practices and games for early season baseball. They set their blanket on fire! LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Textbook La Nina 90d temp anomaly signature. The Mountain West temps are well below normal.
  19. Carvers Gap
    They hit -44F south of Cokeville, WY, this morning and -35F in Afton, WY.
  20. Carvers Gap
  21. Carvers Gap
    I think spring will be ok. Cosgrove seems to think we have that last cold shot, and then make a break for spring. The transition to Nino is what give me pause(usually spring is late w those). About the time we are all tired of rain, cold weather....Nino doubles down! LOL. Hope the soccer is going well!
  22. Carvers Gap
    I would give it about a 75% of doing a full rotation through the warm phases at relatively low amplitude and be back in the cold phases by the last week of the month. Some plots take it into 4 and then it goes into the COD. But given the actual precip plumes in Indonesia....the warm phase rotation looks likely. Feb10-24 for that roughly.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at weather underground obs for Smyrna, looks like freezing temps are right at the I-65 corridor. You all have an ESE wind. Theirs is from the northwest. If your wind switches and comes out of the west or north....that might be telling.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Icicles add effect, eh? And no, I didn't add those. LOL. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/memphis-tn-38111
  25. Carvers Gap
    So, just for folks working back though these threads during later years(me included), ice storm warnings envelope west TN and WAAs extend to the eastern Plateau, Arkansas, northern MS, KY, and SW VA. Models are trending colder with the storm. The cold air is pressing vs getting warmer. There is a separate thread regarding this winter weather event.
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