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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Sharpen up those ice skates and dig out the umbrellas.
  2. Carvers Gap
    All three deterministic models have a slider. The CMC is a bit more north and mainly west TN. The Euro and GFS have more of a west to east axis. Again....lots of plates for modeling to juggle. Survive and advance. That is all we can do.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Euro had it at 12z. We are also talking the 105 hour....not day 7-8. But yeah, definitely don't share a foxhole w/ the GFS. We know how that turns out.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Welp, I gott a run. I hate you cut-out mid-run....but that was slider city. Timing of precip, HP or no HP over the top, etc....TBD. I do like that the 18z GFS is similar to the Euro.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah.....Happy hour is here.
  6. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I think the GFS is about to do it.
  7. Carvers Gap
    At 165, this would result in a fairly significant winter storm for the Valley and looks somewhat similar to the 12z Euro.
  8. Carvers Gap
    1t 156, yet another wave of precip attacks the cold boundary and results in a fairly extensive ice shield over much of middle and west TN.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That is oh so close to a multi-day over-running event. And that isn't 7-8 days out. This begins around hour 105. Still TONS of uncertainty.
  10. Carvers Gap
    By hour 111, most of middle and west TN are dealing w/ light wintry mix/snow/ice. It is also spread eastward, but mainly above I-40
  11. Carvers Gap
    First wave of wintry precip on the 18z GFS is at hour 105 and incoming for Memphis, northern MS, and eastern Arkansas.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has a similar slider to the 12z GFS north of I-40. Definite suppression trend across all deterministic modeling for the first 2-3 days of Feb.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z GFS is quicker w/ precip and gets out ahead of HP whereas the 12z CMC has precip sliding along slightly behind HP. That high placement and precip timing makes for very different solutions. For now, we take the GFS. There is some concern on my part that cold air might get trapped in the eastern valley (especially north of I-40) if this rolls in at night. The CMC looks to have a little bit of feedback over Louisiana in holding back energy, but that isn't totally different than the 0z Euro.,
  15. Carvers Gap
    Pick your poison, the 12z suite has a buffet of options so far. Big ol' slop fest on modeling. Interesting to see modeling seeing a stronger and/or more southerly HP. That is an interesting trend. Placement of all features is still up for grabs.
  16. Carvers Gap
    These are not bad trends at all..........more later. But man, models are all over the place. LOL. Trend is pretty extensive suppression...to the point some of that energy just sits there and comes back as a WAA event on the CMC.
  17. Carvers Gap
    At 168, the CMC has ice in northern Louisiana.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is also VERY suppressed. Modeling is "seeing" a stronger HP over the top which means colder I would guess...though I have not looked at the surface. CMC might be a mid-South special.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS might put snow into coastal South Carolina...that suppressed. And honestly, that is where we want that model right now. That gives it room to come back north. I wouldn't be shocked that later runs move to a Miller A. That was close....if real.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has a light snow event....and then is very suppressed...very.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Nice moderate to heavy sleet band in wester Sullivan Co just a few minutes ago. If modeling is correct, those bands continue for a few more hours.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I suspect we have at least one NWS poster on our forum. They are an excellent poster. And that is a great catch. I think that shows that what we talk about here isn't sunshine pumping or the like. That window is a legit window for winter weather. Where is the question? Nina winters often favor middle and west TN, and this potential overrunning event signal favors those areas, though I wouldn't rule out E TN by any means . Those crappy decades of winters Nashville had prior to this recent good run....chocked full of Nino winters from the early 90s onward. During the last decade, we have seen more Nina winters. Another good trend during the past couple of winters is the return of the -NAO. That helps. We have seen what January looks like w/out Atlantic blocking. Many Kocin storms have -NAOs as part of the equation. All of that said, the trend overnight was to bring that frozen boundary from the Ohio River into Central KY. In some cases, the heaviest bands were brought completely to the KY/TN border, including SW Virginia. The Euro ended w/ an extensive Miller B hybrid. So great find and great disco by Nashville. I agree with all of that. We really want to see an aggressive trend southward so that the boundary gets south of us...so that the inevitable northward jog will still leave us w/ frozen precip. I am 50/50 on whether modeling is just sensing the cold, and pushes that boundary further southward. The GFS is less aggressive(though 6z trended significantly colder) w/ the boundary pressing southward. The 0z CMC would bring most of TN into the mix north of I-40 in terms of ice. The 0z Euro is in between the two, and is a nice compromise for now. There is still plenty of time for this to move around(roughly 48 hours before this begins to lock in). The Euro late in the run has me intrigued as it has had a real tendency to trend west with storms(think inland runner which trended to Illinois). I think we want any storm on that model on the coast or just off the coast...at this range.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Definitely our heaviest sleet shower so far. Very wintry day.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Light snow, sleet, and rain falling in west Sullivan Co.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like some light snow showers or flurries will be moving along the TN/KY border this morning. One line is coming off the Plateau and one line is moving onto the eastern rim.
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