Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Less cold...and oddly less SER. Still suppressed at 177. -
18z GFS is flatter after 150. No idea what that leads to, but it suppressed the two leading waves.
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Especially at our latitude. It is like trying to get it to rain at 7000’ in Wyoming during the middle of winter. It can, but it really doesn’t want to.....
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I don't even know about trends at this point. I am just looking to see where the general track cone is, and that the storm signal is still there. I would think by Saturday, we will have a very good idea of where this is headed. I, and some others, follow a general rule that we have to get a threat inside 150 hours to really track it. Models are decently good enough now that sometimes we can track out to day7-9, but that has its pitfalls as we have all seen. This is tricky business where very cold air is trying to undercut a weak HP at 500mb. The axis is shifting hundreds of miles right now due to projections of the SER, the strength of the cold air, and number of short waves which drive the boundary. Pretty big cone right now. That cone decreases with each run. Kind of like March Madness, we want to survive and advance. For much of January, we have been in the NIT. This is a legit pattern right now, so we just want to stay in the game with each passing model suite until this narrows the cone.
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So what is the difference between the control and deterministic runs?......The storms which are bigger appear to hold the energy back long enough for the cold to drive into the forum area. When they precip is quicker, it is more cold chasing rain. When that energy holds back, it gets nasty. It may also be that the cold front is stronger.
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I will have to go look in the SE forum. I have an old friend who works for ESPN, and we had been discussing the big storm for Charlotte. It definitely looked like model feedback, but if I remember correctly, most modeling had crazy amounts. He was HOT when that one busted.
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Yeah, at this range deterministic runs will have a lot of variation. But the signal is what I am looking for. I am just looking for some consistency across modeling that we are in the game, and we are at this point. I also know, that can change in a heartbeat. I once watched 2-4'(feet is right!) modeled for Upstate South Carolina, and it busted badly even during the storm. So, we know the drill. LOL. On a serious note, that amount of freezing rain could be a huge problem, especially w/ the cold which follows on the CMC. Not quite sure I want to reel that one in......
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Indeed, I have doing this a long time, and have seen many do exactly that(bust at this range). Busts at this latitude are plentiful regarding frozen precip. And the -30F wind chill event was modeled well at 7-8 days out. I have said this many times, if you want to be right 95% of the time during winter....call for rain at this latitude. Chasing snow is risky.
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And ALL of it could go to the Ohio River valley. That is plausible. However, December is a great example of how it can go the other way - cold and dry. I like the active STJ and cold. That is a good combination for frozen precip in the Upper South, and even Mid-South. Plenty can and will change, but it is worth tracking.
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The GFS and CMC diverge drastically after d7. The 12z GFS sends the boundary to the Ohio River Valley after plentiful snow and ice across the mid and upper south. The CMC actually depresses the boundary further and ends w/ ice in Atlanta. Very cold air is incredibly difficult for modeling to account for. Often it sits below 500mb, and creeps further than modeling depicts, and the CMC is a good example of that scenario. The SER is also a wild card and the GFS is a good example of that.
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The 12z CMC has nearly an identical setup. Again, we all know this is seven days out on the CMC(not eight), and it is the only game in town. Most of us are here during winter to track winter storms. It sure beats tracking mid 70s(and that is on the horizon BTW). This signal has shown up repeatedly on modeling for days to various extents. Does it verify? Who knows, but that is as good a signal as we have had this winter. Could it be a mirage? Sure. But we can certainly enjoy tracking a potential weather event without the caveats. We all should know them by now. It is rare that we all get winter at the same time. So, if this goes to middle and west TN, I celebrate for them(though I definitely pull for snow IMBY).
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That would be a terrible ice storm for SW TN, northern MS, NE Arkansas, etc.
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Yeah, that looks like big winter storm on that run - ice, snow, sleet, overrunning.
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Indeed, at 189 light wintry precip is breaking out across the forum area. Let's see where this goes.
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Looks like an incoming storm at 186.
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Not sure where the 12z GFS goes after 180, but a HP in the Plains/Midwest which is sitting over the top of a low in TX is not a bad setup.
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Gusts here have been 30+mph which is the forecast by MRX for MBY.- 923 replies
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Just looking at ensembles. This is just a blend......Cold arrives in the northwest corner of the forum area around Jan 31st and gets to NE TN on Feb 2nd or 3rd. We are looking at a very strong cold front taking ~72 hours to traverse the forum area. Think about how quickly the December front moved across the state - FAST! This front is going to be crawling if modeling is anywhere close to being correct. That gives ample time for short waves to run that front. A slow crawling, strong cold front is part of the recipe for over-running. The way we don't see wintry precip, and it is certainly plausible, is the over-running heads to the Ohio River Valley as that fits climatology and the Nina induced SER flexes. The way we get wintry precip is for the front to at least get past the MS before stalling or slowing down, and Nino induced BN heights win the day in the Upper South. The way we get snow/ice for the entire state is for the system to move slowly and not stall. My guess is this stalls on the Plateau, and then pushes across as cold air builds. For E TN, we need a system to run that front right as the cold air press past. One last note, the MJO during January is warm for phase 3. However, it correlates to cold during February. As we have one foot in January and one foot in February, it is possible that aspect of climatology might be causing some variation as well. IDK. But as we traverse phase 3 during that time, and it possibly stalling there, the Jan result and Feb result of that phase of the MJO are way different. The ECM BC(Euro ensemble bias corrected) never leaves phase 3 for the entirety of its run. It spends 360 hours in a phase that has two different results depending on whether it is Jan or Feb. BTW, I am not sure I am buying what the Euro BC is celling. Throw in the transition ENSO state and MJO in a phase with two different results depending on the month, I think this is likely why we are seeing some wild swings in modeling.
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Overnight modeling looks quite similar to the thread assessment that CPC released yesterday - the area of low probability for wintry precip. That is the line on deterministic modeling from overnight.
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My guess is that when any model says that the MJO is heading for the warm phases...it is probably headed there. The GFS had it first. The Euro EMON takes it in the week phases. The GFS, as fallible as it has become, has been able to sniff out warm spells as it may be modeling the area around Indonesia and the IO better. IDK. The MJO signal has also been weak for about a month which makes it tougher. I do think it will take a tour through the warm phases. Amplitude is the question for me at this point. The Euro yesterday gives us some hope that it won't, but it is on an island at this point. I think, as noted to start this thread, we will see a big warm-up mid month, and then it rotates into 8 for late Feb and early March.
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This will take some time to sort out.........................
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I was expecting to see no wintry precip on modeling at all this AM after reading all of the overnight comments. LOL. The 0z Euro, 0z CMC, and 6z GFS all have a winter storm signal between Jan31-Feb4 for at least middle and west TN. The Euro has it for the entire region. Long way to go as CMC, which is the earliest, is still 6 days away. Ensembles at this range are the key. Operationals are pretty much just one member of the ensemble. We have said this many times, but the setup with this reminds me of the west TN snow and ice storm from a couple of years ago. Right now, it is timing of the front and short waves along that front which is no easy task. It is worth noting that modeling at this range can and does change at the drop of a hat. That we are still in it at this range is a good thing.
