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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    There is something lurking in that time range. The CMC has a big cold dump which is similar but the run stops. Can the cold get this far? That is the question. The wavelengths and cold air combo is a good one.
  2. Carvers Gap
    My lights are flickering as I look at this run.
  3. Carvers Gap
    What comes after that is just crazy.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And now we know why the GEFD snow mean was honking at 6z. Similar look on the cmc.
  5. Carvers Gap
    This is more like it. No idea idea if this continues or if the GFS has lost a few screws, but yeah.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Here come the PV on the 12z GFS...this should be fun.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Great look at 162 on the 12z gfs.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is noteworthy that the 6z GEFS is quite cold this morning. Warm-up is likely mid Feb, but that is a really good look on a model with a slight warm bias d10+.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Mercy. Talk about a good catch. I am out of pocket again today. I did grab the 6z GEFS snow mean after seeing those looks that you posted. Yeah, that is a good gradient on the ensemble right at the end of the month. Might be easily the best snow ensemble of the season.
  10. Carvers Gap
    On June 14th one year, they had to close the park due to snow. We had 5" of snow in West Yell. It came in like a wall which was a black cloud. They opened one of the ski slopes for a day as they had a foot at higher elevations. We got into the park later that day and fish were rising everywhere.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The thing a about Niña and the Mountain West is to look at snowfall. They are way above normal. The likely aren’t that cold this month since the cold emptied itself in December. I suspect their December is going to even out January or get close to it. I watch that area super closely. Many areas have had their best winter in a long time in regards to snow. That is classic Niña climatology. Nino winters are often BN for water in Montana and Wyoming.
  12. Carvers Gap
    So....if placing bets, go with Asia. If it goes to NA, go West. When we do feel the effects along the East Coast, it is often extreme. I would suspect the cold at the end of Feb is related.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Definitely there is a pattern change at hand.....the big block over HB is about to be gone. The question is whether the output at the mid latitudes is much different. The low in the Aleutians will be replaced by a pesky high which is very Nina like, and has been present during the last two winters(reference the big red ball of fire conversations). That said, temps should be seasonal to below for most days during the next two weeks. Modeling appears to have done well with this window, but was too extreme in its early looks. We will certainly have a day or two AN. Whether we can score another storm is still up for debate - before the MJO likely rotates into warm phases in a couple of weeks. I do see ample potential for yet another upslope event right after storm two. I think the best window for a winter storm will be from Jan28 to roughly Feb 5th(that window could extend a day or two). I certainly concur that cold temps are coming later in Feb and into March unfortunately. Again, with shortening wavelengths, the variability of the upcoming pattern is likely high. Not all pattern changes are net cold, but a pattern change is incoming. Also, the NAO is absolutely difficult to predict with any accuracy. It has been on one model run only to be absent on the next. If it fires....that would again balance a terrible Pacific set-up. As for Nina or Nino characteristics...the atmosphere appears to be showing both. The lack of storms along the eastern seaboard is 100% Nina climatology. Cutter city is Jan-Feb Nina climatology. Now, what is open for hot debate is whether that is about to change. If we begin to see a ton of rainy, drizzly days with highs in the 50s with no en in sight...welcome to Super El Nino. I do think the jet extension a couple of weeks ago was El Nino related. However, the heavy snows in the Mountain West is classic La Nina. Place like Montana and Wyoming see much less snow during Nino winters. They had very bad drought conditions during the 90s due to the excessive number of Nino conditions. The cold spring look on the Euro Weeklies is El Nino. So, it appears the transition has begun. And trust me on this, we don't want Nina climatology to continue into February or it is gonna be torch city. So, I welcome that change if it is indeed at hand.
  14. Carvers Gap
    One last note, and I will be off the forum for some time today, is that there does appear to be a northwest flow and/or clipper event following the second storm. The cold air looks to be in place from Jan27th to ~5th. Within that northwest flow, it does appear some light snow showers are embedded w/ details to be worked out later. NE TN and the northern border counties of TN and southern KY would stand the best chance w/ those(if they don't trend northward which is common).
  15. Carvers Gap
    Not much to add to yesterday evening's discussion. Other than Pivotal, it does look like American modeling is/was having trouble propagating to other websites this morning. A couple of sites that I use were missing large chunks of 0z and 6z runs or was just missing it altogether. That said, the CPC MJO site does support a warm-up after the 5th as the MJO is shown to travel through the warmer phases(low amplitude for now) on several models. Some models just go COD in and around phase 3. So, the Euro Weeklies do look correct in its depiction for February - false spring followed by more winter to end that month. It does look to me like Nino climatology and/or the SSW is going to be felt during the last week of Feb and early March. I should also note that with changing wavelengths, February is not an easy month to forecast. Take a look at the last two GFS runs, and you will see some excellent passes by that model(w/ room to trend nor west). But I am a little wary this morning of modeling as American modeling has taken its time loading onto my normal sites.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS. This is possibly a one-off since there was a big storm at the end of the GFS...but this is a nice ensemble mean for NE TN.
  17. Carvers Gap
    No earthquakes!!!!! LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    It is the 18z NAM at range, but it has 1-3" of accumulating snow on the Plateau w/ rain changing to snow. NE TN has 0.5-1.0" of snow w/ the same system.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies synopsis: Temps: Weeks 1-2: Seasonal to BN Weeks 3: AN Week: 4 Seasonal D28-46: BN (times well with recent strat warming...) 6-10" snow mean for NE TN -NAO develops........
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z ensemble trends at 500mb have been decent (GEPS and GEFS) so far - meaning this upcoming cold shot might not be a one-off.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The real risk is suppression right now. I know that I keep saying it, but take a look at the 12z ICON. It shoves the entire first system almost completely south of us. That is a system that was once modeled to cut through the eastern Plains and Midwest. I would not be surprised to see the system on the 25th jog southwest. The 12z GFS came back a tic east on that run. Let's see where that goes. Honestly, I am almost pulling for a cutter for storm two. That, to sound like a broken record, sets up very good confluence for us for the next shortwave.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I think Memphis is sitting in a good spot for storm 2.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't be shocked to see wrap around snow(from an actual inland runner) on Sunday night or Monday AM.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, that is a good looking run of the 12z GFS. As @tnweathernutoften likes to say, a cutter is not terrible if it sets the boundary w/ the next storm. Honestly, we probably wanted that first storm to be a cutter. But if the second storm cuts, it sets the boundary for the next storm provided there isn't too much spacing. Confidence is growing that we will see some measurable snow in the Jan 23-Feb5 timeframe. It may not be a big storm, but a clipper or snow shower event will do the trick, especially since the cold will be in place.
  25. Carvers Gap
    So, the big cutter for storm one is now being suppressed by modeling with 72 hours to go. It originally was forecast to go into Illinois and Indiana by the GFS and CMC. That really makes me wonder if the second system will cut. Time of day is the issue w/ storm one. If it would be mostly at night, I think we would see wet, heavy snow above 1500'. Fighting off marginal temps w/ daytime heating is tougher in later January for the valleys. Still, all three global ensembles have now switched to a weak Miller A. If we get snow from that system, it will have to crank or arrive at night. If it doesn't cut, it is a good lesson that this pattern is going to press. I would not be surprised to see the mountains get snow with storm one yet again. I do hold out hope that now that modeling has a weak Miller A that maybe it underestimated the strength, and is just now dialing in that system. In the LR, the 0z GEFS is much colder than from a couple of days ago. Again, when it flips colder it is worth noting. The Euro still has the system on the 25th for west TN. The Euro, which was the most suppressed for the 22nd/23rd system, was the only system that suppressed for it, and even it was possibly not suppressed enough as it had an apps runner. For now, it appears the GFS was was to amped up. They system on the 25th will arrive for west TN during overnight hours. I think we have a window from Jan 23rd to roughly Feb5th. After that, it gets murky. Does the NAO develop? Does the MJO loop back into colder phases? I do feel if we can get a third system in this pattern, that has a very good chance of being snow.
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