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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    We had some minor river flooding w/ the winter weather event a week or so ago. Other than that, this is one of the few recent winters where flooding hasn't run me off of my normal running routes. We need more rain in NE TN.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That will work right there.
  3. Carvers Gap
    We were having that discussion today coming out of church. LOL. I think they better hold-on to those days, especially in NE TN. It doesn't take long to burn through them.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Good find. That last sentence is about right. I think SSWs are such a crapshoot. They often send cold to the mid-latitudes. That is one thing that is common. Where is the question for me. I think Boone noted that late season SSWs tend to go into the East. I have little doubt that strat warming is wrecking havoc on model accuracy d7+. As for '89-90, the forum would not have survived that winter. LOL. Lots of great winters have warm spells during the early to mid parts of Jan after early starts....and there are winters where winter began early and struggled to return(last two winters are that for MBY). Jury is still out on whether this winter will join that "quick start...then fade" analog package. As February hasn't occurred yet, no way to know. This winter for MBY is nearly an exact replica of the past two. We didn't get the good stuff that middle and west TN had during the past two winters. We are used to it, so no big deal here. Uncertainty makes this process interesting for me....lots of exactly that coming up. I will add that I am having a blast watching the Bills vs Bengals game - snow.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS changes at 500mb are stark and cold. If it was a run unique to that model, I would toss it as an outlier. I do approach these changes cautiously as Jax mentioned in the Jan thread that Burger was having issues getting data into his site from the GFS...but this is the EPS.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Past that frame the 12z EPS is kicking all of the cold eastward.
  7. Carvers Gap
    D11 changes. That is a long way out there. That said, I am not sure what was ingested by the 12z suite today...but it is cold. We will see if that trend holds. Even the 12z CFSv2 is much colder. 0z and 12z comparison.
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is coming in much colder.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Was that the ice storm/overrrunning event...if so, yes. I agree.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The interesting thing is the MJO for the Euro favors the cold coming west and the GFS does not...yet, the GFS brings the cold quicker than the Euro around Feb1. Ensembles are probably the way to go here. The MJO would favor cold being sent westward for sure. That said, the cold shot is so strong...I am not sure the SER can hold it back forever. This may be an instance where cold(for a time) overcomes the MJO forecast.
  11. Carvers Gap
    About half that goes over my head. LOL. I certainly looks like the SSW is having effects on modeling now. It has been some time since I have seen that much cold pouring into Canada. Cool thing is modeling has had this for some time. What is not being handled well(understandably) is where the cold goes. It is heading for the snow pack and less friction in the Mountain West...and I would think one or two waves of that make it at least to the Plateau.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z GEPS. That is remarkable similarity to the 12z GEFS in regards to the Siberian cold heading into Canada. When the GFS has a mega run like it did yesterday at 12z(a true outlier), sometimes that is a hint, and it just got ahead of itself...or it just blew a fuse or both. Model mayhem is likely w/ this amount of cold on the table. This change is not in the distant future. The actual discharge of Siberian air into North America has begun.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Great comments, Flash. @Holston_River_Rambler, I saw your post in Banter about Siberia. I though, "I wonder if that air mass is going to move?" Take a look at the 12z GEFS(yes, I know GEFS...), and look at the migration of cold into North America. For those new to this, watch Canada at the beginning of the run, and look at the end. Also, watch that bitter cold air flow across the North Pole into the Western Hemisphere.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The February thread is live. I will have d10+ discussion there.
  15. Carvers Gap
    There is likely going to be some warmth during mid-month - and maybe extreme. So, I am not starting this thread w/ any sugar coating. That said, models are sniffing out a cold shot to start this month which wasn't seen on some modeling even 24 hours ago. In life we go one day at a time. Let us not borrow the troubles of tomorrow until they arrive. 12z Yesterday and 12z today of the GEFS.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS after Feb 1 doesn't even look like the same model when compared to 12z yesterday...it is MUCH colder. Both the GEPS and GEFS seems to be picking up on an unforeseen cold shot right after Feb 1.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Just to add to that....it actually is heading eastward on the 12z CMC, and that isn't the only model to have had that look during that timeframe. There is real model disagreement on whether it gets east of the Mississippi. However, what is lurking around Feb 1st is potentially the coldest air of the season for some locations in the Lower 48.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The cold at the end of the CMC run...whoa. If it manages to find its way eastward, lookout.
  19. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that modeling is ever so slightly pushing back the Feb warm-up. Take a look at the 0z Euro control.........
  20. Carvers Gap
    And one note, there are times the SSW stuff can have an immediate impact on the troposphere, especially with blocking. Can the SSW override the impending MJO likely tour of warm phases? Unlikely, but who knows. Feb is a notoriously tricky month for modeling.
  21. Carvers Gap
    We are going to have to watch the d7-12 timeframe for an overrunning event. I think that tends to favor west TN, but that boundary is in question(meaning how far SE does it go?). The 12z GFS yesterday had one extreme, but the 6z GFS still tries to push that air into the forum area, especially western areas. The 6z GEFS is not warm, and neither is the 0z Canadian ensemble during the d10-15 range(and that is a change for the GEFS). The EPS is warmer. I think the cold heads into the Mountain West and pushes eastward until the warm phases of the MJO take hold. Interesting LR trends for sure. The full run, 6z GEFS snow mean is 6-7" of snow for NE TN, and that has normally been a decent sign of impending winter weather here during the next couple of weeks. Time will tell.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Winter Storm Watch posted for the TN mountains.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro control did the same thing as the 18z GEFS. It popped a southwest ridge at range.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Interesting to see the 18z GEFS remove the SER at the end of its run. Probably is a blip, but I have seen the EPS try to remove it a couple of times this weeks. I don't think this happens, but I do ask this question sometimes? Once the trough goes into the East, is it going to be tough to move?
  25. Carvers Gap
    Just got back from Knoxville. The 18z GFS pretty much doubled down. Wow.
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