Carvers Gap

Yeah, I think the air mass is marginal for middle of next week. Time of day might account for some differences in precip type. I haven’t look at the storm for more than 2-3 minutes. LOL.

Bonus snow! Wind chills this morning are around 25. It feels like the middle of winter. Our spring sports groups were sent inside yesterday by graupel. I am pretty sure I haven’t felt it this cold since December....LOL.

I think the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe next week has some marginal interest for me. As for the Weekend...looks like rain chasing cold to me. Maybe the mountains? That said, MRX does have snow listed for MBY Sat morning (light variety that doesn’t accumulate...if even that). I always think spring has surprises. TRI is seeing fairly steady and light snow shower activity this morning. I wasn’t expecting that or the snow yesterday. Never know!

Re: Tuesday system....The odd thing about the GFS...it spots systems from way out...then trends them sharply westward. The Euro and CMC have been 24-36 hours behind its trends. It has taken the Euro to school during Feb. Oddly, the Euro has had a recent progressive bias recently. Right now I prefer the GFS at all ranges. We are still at the point for next Tuesday where the operational is still pretty much a single member of the ensemble. 48 more hours and then we can talk seriously about it. I don’t have high confidence in any model seven days out...to the good or bad. As Jeff noted yesterday...there is one idea that the storm gets suppressed and another that comes north into a marginal air mass. To me, the only differences in tracks of the 0z Euro and 6z GFS was precip type. But again, as new data is inputed...those solutions will most certainly change.

This weekend I am less enthused about. The Euro does support the GFS for next Tuesday. That said....it is seven days out and things could change, and highly likely will.

Spitting snow here in Kingsport this morning.

The NWS point-and-click has light snow chances for my area Fri night and Sat AM. The 6z GFS shows that as well for NE TN - unrelated to the post above. The post above is related to next Tuesday - LONG way to go there.

The 6z GFS has it again for far eastern areas. The Euro is weaker, but has a front end thump for the eastern valley. Really, until it gets closer, I don't have much else to add. The 6z GFS puts 1-2 feet in eastern mountain communities of TN and western NC gets hammered..

The 18z GFS has the storm yet again at 192.

Quick ensemble peek...cold should be the dominant air mass with periodic ridges rolling through, notably a ridge around the 25th w/ more cold following.

Sleet/graupel is falling here in Kingsport. I will record a trace of frozen precip IMBY for the month to this point. Amazing that is was in the 70s and 80s just a short time ago.

Kingsport for the next couple of days. 22 for tomorrow night is going to be a problem for plants which have bloomed. Again, this has been accurately portrayed for several weeks by modeling. The only can-kick was from the 10th-11th to the 13th-14th for the cold shot. There will be some warm-ups, followed by more cold for the next 2-3 weeks. NWS hourly forecast chart.

Wind chills tomorrow aren't supposed to get above 32F in Kingsport according to the hourly point and click. Some locations will not get out of the actual 30s in NE TN and SW VA. Winch chills tonight are supposed to be in the upper teens and mid teens for tomorrow night. Those LR models are showing some skill w/ this cold. Current WC at TRI is 38F.

Starting to see some games moved up(UT baseball) and outright cancellations for tomorrow night as wind chills are going to be pretty brutal.

Freeze warnings are posted for the entire forum area tonight. That means at least 2-3 hours below freezing. Temps Weds are morning for MBY are forecast for 21F.

Snow fell on Mt Leconte overnight. Looks like they have been re-supplying the lodge by helicopter during recent days. Helicopter re-supply is a normal thing during spring if I remember correctly. They use llamas during the season.

Pretty strong signal on modeling this morning.

Freeze watches are posted for much of the forum area.

18z Happy Hour back at it again.

I like that stone edging, Powell.

My suggestion, before pruning wait and see what comes back. Holly bushes are as tough as the come. They may just be damaged at the tips of the branches. If you break a branch, and it is green underneath...it prob will produce more leaves. If it is brittle, no good. I found this article....we have had some severely damage plants beginning to show life again. The hollies on the south facing (bricked side) are in good shape. Also, if hollies are established, I can cut mine almost to the ground and they will be 2-3’ high by the end of the season. Double that or more next season. I trim back some hollies to about 12” of the ground and just leave a stump. They bounce right back - those are the hollies with smaller leaves. I did this last season as they go too big....they come back quickly. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/home-garden/2023/01/13/5-ways-to-help-save-your-plants-after-decembers-extreme-cold-snap/69780735007/

Interesting. Yeah, a prolonged bout of phase 8 does imply the water is warming there which would imply Nino conditions are increasing.

This is not the full run either. I noticed that the mean for the 18z GEFS showed a substantial uptick. So, I decided to look at why. Happy Hour is not just reserved for the op. And this is why I won't rule out some late season mischief. P6, anyone?

Yeah, this is the initial trough coming through which kind of breaks the old pattern. This is the very beginning of the new pattern. This is the trough which looked cold at range, but modified as it drew closer. The first shot of truly cold air will be T/W, then a very brief warm-up, then more cold air. Wash, rinse, repeat. This is a base cold pattern where the cold comes in waves. Probably is a warm-up and rain pattern. That said, this is a the type of pattern which can spin one up...I don't see that at this point, but the trough east of HI is generally a good teleconnection for EC storms. This is really a pattern which favors E TN and mountain communities if any storm develops. Again, I don't want cold temps in April. And yes, the weather today as beautiful. I definitely don't like 80s during March. Give me normal, spring weather and I am good to go.

Trough is east of Hawaii on the medium and LR ensembles. That is a signal for an EC storm threat. That is a LONG shot for the valleys, but mountains would be in the game. Ensembles 500mb are not warm.