Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,659

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has a second storm behind that one in which the 500vort map looks quite potent. The 12z Euro seems to match ensembles and the MJO the closest FWIW. Now, back to the upslope event nearest you...........
  2. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good pass on the 22nd on both the Euro and GFS at 12z
  3. Carvers Gap
    The GFS this morning is on an island and is an outlier in the d1-16 range. It is either going to score a coup or miss badly. The CMC and Euro(along w/ ensembles) show a return to seasonal or BN beginning the 22nd/23rd. The pattern of the past three months looks to continue, but quicker cycles. The Jan 23rd to first or second week of Feb looks to be our window for winter storms this go around. Then the trough is almost universally forecast to retrograde into the northern Rockies which is no surprise there as that is classic Nina climatology. However, due to shortening wavelengths, we should see waves of cold push int eastern North America as the cold source regions will have been restored to winter type levels. If we really want fun and games, we need to pull for the CMC to be correct as it locks the trough over eastern NA w/ PV source regions. I don't totally discount the Canadian run as it has scored highly this winter at that range. At some point, however, the MJO plots should dictate a rotation through warmer phases down the road. For now, I would blend the Canadian and Euro suite(including ensembles), and go with that.
  4. Carvers Gap
    If Mt Leconte would donate a couple of inches of snow for MBY(from its 600 inches of predicted snow), that would be good.
  5. Carvers Gap
    So, did the 12z Euro get the thunder in the mountains message? Indeed. Reel that baby in!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Man, have you ever watched a series and it ends on a cliffhanger? I know everyone has, but the 12z Euro.... ....only 20 more runs to go.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks a bit interesting late in the run....
  8. Carvers Gap
    For posterity....and why following the weather is sometimes boring.............and sometimes not.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Thunder IMBY @Holston_River_Rambler
  10. Carvers Gap
    I put this in the main pattern thread, but it probably needs to be here as well. To tag onto what @John1122said earlier...
  11. Carvers Gap
    Warm start, cold, flooding, snow, severe wx, and variable....those are the tags which I gave the month of January when I created the thread in December. Little did I know it would happen all on the same day. SW VA, SE KY, and the mountains of E TN/NC are in for a wild, wild ride.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the January hurricane run from earlier this week brings home that point.
  13. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I mean it is a regular buffet of weather solutions. In all seriousness, it is having an issue w/ a slp stalling in the southwest. Could it happen? Sure. I have learned never to complete discount the Four Corners low(which stalls out).....but I am not sure it will have support from its own ensemble. We'll see here in a minute. I also think some of those wild runs have to be skewing the GEFS as it likely contains multiple crazy members.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 22nd-23rd timeframe slipped inside the 10day window today...so, it needs to be watched. The 12z GFS is out of sync w/ previous ensembles which is no surprise as its verification scores this winter have been pretty bad at this range. The 12z CMC has a decent look at 240, but that is about all will say w/ it being that far out there. Just some interesting stuff to watch for this weekend as that timeframe comes into view.
  15. Carvers Gap
    One thing to note, wavelengths often begin to change in February. Long story short, storms can appear quickly and unexpectedly on modeling due to shorten wavelengths during February. So, what looks like a barren pattern may actually just be a mirage.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS has sped up the pattern change a bit to the 21st. That looks a bit quick to me, but does support the operational. I do think the SER is going to try to flex at times. It is a blessing and a curse...we need it in small doses to prevent systems from going OTS or being too suppressed. Get too much of it, and E TN folks will see warm-nose city. I think the pattern will be base cold after the 23rd for a 2-3 weeks. However, like the past three winters, the cold comes in surges and the SER is present as the cold departs, and then the cold comes back. Wash, rinse, repeat. The MJO "should" rotate back into warm phases at some point. Though, for the past couple of days, there have been hints that it will try to cycle back into the COD w/a a chance to skip them. My guess is it takes the warm tour, but there should be plenty of cold prior to that.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Good catch! That is a pretty rapid drop.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That is 18z BTW. I doubt 0z changed by much in terms of wind direction. I am going to try to get up to the mountains(as far as I can safely anyway) to see it. I hope the ski resorts make out like bandits.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Powell, not sure if this is what you are looking for, but you can see the banding which should indicate the winds. Winds are slightly more WNW prior to this.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The message of LR modeling today is the rapid cooling of the North American continent after Jan 20th. Source regions for storms after that should be cold. That doesn't mean a ridge won't roll through. It has happened all winter, and it isn't going to stop now. It is still far enough out there that it could change, but it is just about "go time" for that transition at 500mb. The storm this weekend cracks the old pattern. The HB block will briefly try to re-establish after this weekend's storm, and then the next system will weaken it again. Then, a fairly large scale hemispheric pattern change would appear to be on the table. The GEFS at noon tried some can kicking, but 18z has resumed the drum beat. The 18z CFSv2 and GEFS Ext are coming in very cold. We had noted that as modeling began to "see" the MJO plots, they would eventually cool off. That has begun. Plenty could go wrong as we live in the sub tropics. For now, this is a good look. I will try to post some maps later
  21. Carvers Gap
  22. Carvers Gap
    With modeling jumping around (see GEFS today) and the overall construct of blocking and the height of the western ridge...I think the set-up is there for another severe cold snap, but this time w/ normal precip.
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS appears to have sobered up. Major league 500mb cold delivery pattern. @John1122, that is your pattern, man. PNA/EPO driven. Looks good.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I missed the early 80s storms as I suffered through two winters in Orlando - not the place to be for a snow loving kid! Really, I suffered through central Florida summers. Then we loaded up the truck and moved back to Tennessee. I did hear about them via some relatives though.
  25. Carvers Gap
    On second thought...edit meaning I am changing my original comment and was in an ice storm. I was actually in that one in Knoxville I think. I snowed on top of the ice and was terrible for days. I just remembered the snow. But the ice was indeed bad. The interstate was only 1-2 lanes getting to campus. If I remember correctly, there was terrible cold which followed.
×
×
  • Create New...