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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The other thing which is showing up in the LR is the NAO returning. There is a pretty significant reshuffle occurring (and about to occur) over the western hemisphere. So right now modeling is juggling these things: 1. Elimination of the Hudson Bay block 2. Warming in the stratosphere over the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere 3. A possible return of HL blocking and the NAO 4. Likely return of very cold air to North America and the Lower 48. One of those would cause havoc in LR modeling. Add in four of those, and that leaves people and models sorting through layers of data. This is what makes following the weather fun believe it or not. It may end up in our favor and it may not. But I like my chances at some point with all of that in play. So, in general, I roll with Feb Nina climatology which says the cold drops into the Northern Rockies and pushes eastward against a SER which is gonna fight.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I often don't show my entire hand when looking at medium and LR weather. Maybe I should, but sometimes it causes consternation when folks see it as the gospel. So spitballing, this is what I am looking at w/ the 12z ensemble. That is d11, and that looks quite a bit different than the GFS deterministic. Take a minute and look at the boundary (blue line/red line) over the forum area. That is the setup from the previous post which I am referring. It is highly likely that modeling is getting that boundary incorrect. The axis of that cold air mass is going to be massively important. I suspect the GFS deterministic is too far to the West. Why? Its ensemble hints that the cold may press eastward more.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Also, right now at this range, it is wise to use ensembles w/ models bouncing around all over the place.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I would say at this point that I am growing confident that Canada will be refilled w/ cold air within the next ten days. That resets our cold source. Now, the real discussion is whether it dumps west and holds or heads eastward per the CMC. The severity of the cold is on par with the December outbreak. I would suspect that models are going haywire, because extremely cold air is very hard to model. It would make sense to head into the West as that is the path of least resistance due to snowpack....then I think it spreads eastward between the 25-27th. It is a good rule of thumb that when models are bouncing around, very cold air is likely entering the pattern. In my mind, severely cold air plunging into the Lower 48 is increasing in likelihood. Does it hold in the Rockies or head into the Plains and fight the SER. I have said it once and I will say it again...this is a very good setup for west TN. The timing and severity of the cold is strikingly similar to the ice storm set-up from a few years back.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, just double checking temp anomalies....that is substantial improvement overnight. Most ensemble modeling now shows a 7 day(minimum) window beginning around the 23rd. The cold shot on Friday was the opening round which worked to initiate the breakdown of the HB Block. Surprisingly, ensembles are in decent agreement this morning. Details about the system on the 22nd-23rd are going to be murky at this range. For now it looks like it cuts through mid-state...but the Euro does not and take the low road
  6. Carvers Gap
    There is actually a lot of improvement w/ ensembles overnight. The 6z GEFS is actually quite cold - that is a flip by that model. There is quite a lot of agreement now. HB block should be gone by the 22nd-23rd. Cold should push eastward in 2-3 shots.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro has a nice pass on the 22nd and then a clipper right behind it.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I really think the CFSv2 code must have been written by someone who likes cold and snow. It should win an award.
  9. Carvers Gap
    What is the etiquette for this new emoji? I have you one just as a test drive.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I knew this was going to be a tough one. UK was told all week that they were not good, and couldn't win. The problem is those guys are loaded w/ 5* talent that just needed some motivation. Oscar is maybe the best post player in the nation. He was an incredible player this afternoon.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I think we will know more after we get to the 23-27th timeframe. Looks like we have two looks during that timeframe. It is also important to remember that when looking at LR modeling, we just see the long wave pattern, we don’t see the details.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Well, it is in the cold phases now so it hasn’t skipped them. Some plots show 4-6 in a few weeks, and some show it crossing the COD after 3 and going to 6(which would likely bring it back to 8). Some stall in the MJO in 3. A warm tour is definitely a possibility. I am just glad we are on this side of the Apps.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has a great look on the 22nd.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I would argue the pattern change is at hand. It will very likely be at hand by the 22nd. The MJO is rolling through 8 as we get this cold shot. The HB block is highly likely about to be gone. Now, does the new pattern favor us? That is the question of the hour. I think the changing wavelengths of Feb give us a shot. Also, it is very important to note that our cold source region is very likely about to vastly improve which means storms aren't dealing with marginal air - that is the biggest aspect to the pattern which is likely to change.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is currently mid January. I would be very surprised if we don't see more chances. I mean, how many people say this current upslope chance two weeks ago? I think the windows are: Jan 22-23 Jan27 roughly. As for February, I would again be shocked if February and March didn't deliver some chances. To me, there is plenty of variability in modeling to make me think we see more winter. My mind hasn't changed on that all. That said, I (nor anyone else) don't know the future. So the "winter cancel" or "winter continues" crowd is nothing more than following a Groundhog in Pennsylvania - might be right and might not. But with half of January and all of February to go, climatology says we should have some more chances.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18-19 was it. December 18 was crazy cold. It looked like that might continue and poof!
  17. Carvers Gap
    I continue to really like the timeframe of Jan23-Jan27th for a couple of chances for middle and/or west TN.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling senses a cold shot is coming, and can't decide which system to accentuate. This is nearly the same setup we saw back in December. It took modeling some time to sort through which system was going to bring the cold.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This will work. And this matches ensembles. Way out there, but many were using this model to cliff dive in other forums. This will change I am sure, but this is an example of where this could go.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The d10+ evolution on the 12z GFS is what we want, and is what is on many ensembles - large scale, NA cold outbreak. Is it right? No idea, but we want to see some of those looks in the LR to support ensembles.
  21. Carvers Gap
    DT. is a good forecaster. Oddly, I am not a "glass half full" kind of person. I wish that I was. Positive people are much more fun to be around. So, I can relate to DT on some levels. I am a bit of a realist. So, you all should know that up front as you read my posts. If I lived along the East coast, I would probably have a different perspective for sure. They are watching snow threads pop for places hundreds of miles to their southwest, including today. They also didn't get much benefit from the December cold or get near as cold as we did. La Nina winters don't have many coastal tracks. Most Nina storm tracks are cutters or inland runners. The QBO flip will impact them the most. The QBO is deal is real as well. Some places in the MA are sitting at zero for snow. Our forum area(as a whole...not the entirety) has done much better. As for MBY, we got very light accumulating snow overnight, so I can't complain. I need to go back and look at the coastal forums right before snowmegadon hit. It was pretty dismal. I used to get into the doom and gloom, but not as much anymore. I run quite a bit, and cold winters are tough. Right now, we have gotten in some good miles this month. Plus, I really hate 90 degree days more than I love snow. So, I just enjoy not being smothered for most of winter. Plus, I think living in Florida for a couple of years as a kid really changed my perspective. A snow lover spending a winter in central Florida....that is a snow lover's hell. LOL. There is a lot to be thankful for in life... And one last thing, there is a lot to enjoy about this hobby beside snow. I got into this to follow snow storms. I have branched out a bit, and that makes this much more fun. I really hope to see our forum grown during the "off season." Honestly, I really enjoyed watching the atmospheric river(boy, is that every an overused term nowadays) hit Mammoth and places like that in California. I enjoyed tracking the extreme cold in December. And I don't think we are done tracking interesting stuff in our area.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Man, it is just hard to tell. LR modeling is all over the place. The 6z CFSv2 coming in that cold is a concern in that regard. The set-up for ice/snow in west TN is still there. However, it bounces around a lot. Time will tell if that run is a trend or a blip. However, the 6z GEFS, 0z CMC, and 6z CFSv2 are both centering a pretty cold shot around the 27th. They all still have the 22nd/23rd event. The real question I have is whether this cold pattern holds for a time. When this HB block hit, it looked transient on modeling...but eventually modeling held, and we went warm. Does that happen in reverse this time? Not sure, but there are some signs it could. The MJO this morning is very low amplitude as it transits the cold phases. Does it continue through 4-6 or does it cross the COD, and loop back. I do think we are seeing the Nino begin to have some influence right now. However, that SER showing up in the LR is also a textbook Nina characteristic. And I mentioned this earlier, wavelengths will begin to shorten-up, and that would likely dislodge any cold in the Mountain West and send it eastward. The biggest thing is that we are exiting the HB block pattern which bottled up the cold (in conjunction w/ a terrible Pacific). Short story: I am looking at two windows for snow. One is the 22nd-23rd. Another is around the 27th.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in the mountains during winter, and within ten days it snows. Check. That "saying" is probably more reliable than any weather model - truly.
  24. Carvers Gap
    One important note(and I have about 1/2" of snow in my yard this morning), is that the current MJO is in very low amplitude phase 8.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 has cooled significantly after the 23rd. Its overall look for February(monthly forecast which runs once per day at 0z) is much cooler than yesterday at 0z. As for the flopping around...again, I have to constantly remind myself that when cold air enters the pattern, it causes model chaos. We saw something very similar during early December. And again, the middle and western parts of our forum are favored in this set-up. However, as I noted w/ the EPS post above, eastern areas are also in the mix. Honestly, I think we will look back at this upslope event and see that the HB block pattern began to change at that point. Time will tell what the new pattern is.....
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