Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,262

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Regular crap fest. Cosgrove notes that his analogs for spring are actually warm - so there is that. Maybe we catch a bit of residual Nina to keep things seasonal. The Euro Weeklies were just about as ugly as one could get. I said this earlier...I don't think TRI's last snow has been had yet. I could be wrong. It takes well BN temps in March to score, but that possibility is there early in the month, and maybe even later than that. I think we continue to see the MJO loop through cold phases -> warm phases -> and then cold phases...wash, rinse repeat. The signal for March is a bit more conflicting that it would seem on the surface. April looks nasty as does the early part May. Hoping this doesn't got to a super Nino next winter. The QBO in conjunction w/ a weak-ish Nino would be really good following a La Nina triplet of winters.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think it is here now. LR modeling (weeklies) are textbook Nino looks.
  3. Carvers Gap
  4. Carvers Gap
    I do think our folks in southwest Virginia have a legit shot at a decent event, even lower elevations. Both the 6z Euro and 12z GEFS have moved the deformation band about 75mi to the east. That would be jackpot there if true. The short range models are fairly void of snow, but this event sits right on the margins.....Bristol, TN, for example sits at 34 as the deformation band passes over on the GFS. My money would be for snowflakes to be mixed in there. I would absolutely hate having to make a call for this as a professional forecaster for TRI. It is very likely rain, but there is some bust potential with this. These are the types of events where surprises can happen under the deformation band. Unlikely that happens, but that is not a zero chance proposition. The biggest issue is the colder air doesn't feed in until after daybreak.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Probably doesn't mean much, but the deformation band on the 12z GFS shifting recently south and east.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That is interesting, Can you ask it to scan a forum prior to answering? It may be that it just hasn’t “read” this forum. It works from massive data bases. Man, it write a response on Volquest that looked real. Only a few errors in statistics gave it away. And I don’t think I would have assumed it was AI...just honest human error. It basically morphed into the linguistics for that forum...or the poster themselves wrote it and was trolling.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Anyone happen to see the 18z Euro? Asking for a friend.
  8. Carvers Gap
    TRI is in the game...for how much longer? Now, that is a good question.
  9. Carvers Gap
    This thought crossed my mind the other day. What would happen if a user used ChatGPT on this forum? It would be a nearly perfect troll. The AI would be able to match linguistics, but the nuanced errors could be interpreted many ways. I hope this forum and other sports forums are starting to look at how to protect against that. It is going to be a huge problem before we know it...if it hasn't already.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Definitely, just due to sun angle and also climatology really fights us here during the second half of March. I did get snow on one of my HS spring breaks in 88 or 89 during April. We had like 8-12" of the stuff. That wasn't so much fun. LOL. Now places like the Smokies and Pisgah can get straight hammered all the way to the end of April.
  11. Carvers Gap
    March is like June in Yellowstone. It can be warm or it can snow. It just depends on the day. I have started all of the winter threads. About Feb 20th, someone needs to start a March thread.
  12. Carvers Gap
    In NE TN, it can snow like crazy during March. I don't think this will happen this year, but some great winters had a March component. Just never know. I have been through Jan-Feb nearly snowless winters and had my seasonal average by April 1. March 2018 was snowy here.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And throw in a switch to Nino....nice, nice LR look. And good support for that across teleconnections, ENSO, etc.
  14. Carvers Gap
    March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles do support the 12z suite.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I completely forgot about the Super Bowl Trip analog! More accurate than "thunder in the mountains!"(which is super accurate IMBY)
  17. Carvers Gap
    Here is the non-Kuchera, just run-of-the-mill accumulation map.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Out of my meeting. Did I miss anything?
  19. Carvers Gap
    I am thinking 2020.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I will likely be in a meeting as the Euro rolls. Hold down the fort!!!
  21. Carvers Gap
    It is possible. FWIW, the Canadian is a good track, but woefully bad time of day. Noon is not when we want to see snowstorms during mid Feb. This track could produce some lollipops. Of all modeling, the CMC in this set-up is probably not the go to. That said, it usually would be the coldest - doh!
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC is also rolling...
  23. Carvers Gap
    We take that run and run with it in NE TN. I suspect we see one more shift west, and then maybe a slight jog east. Bullseye is now 2000' on the Plateau and Smokies I think w/ Cumberlands, NE TN(?), SE KY, SW VA, and W NC sitting in a good spot.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z definitely has thermal issues, but precip arrives overnight Saturday. It definitely has broken towards the Euro now. The question is modeling done trending westward. IDK.
  25. Carvers Gap
    MRX mentions there is a lot of uncertainty w/ the western extent of precip. Crossville would be my early frontrunner. We will see what 12z brings.
×
×
  • Create New...