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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    At 186, the Euro has a stalled 997 low on the south end of Hatteras. Heading to bed. Might be classified as a slight synoptic improvement as the storm is closer to the coast(the secondary).
  2. Carvers Gap
    This run is just more disorganized which almost tells me the Euro is stuck in purgatory - not knowing to drive a cutter or drive SE to the coast.
  3. Carvers Gap
    At 144, more energy has been kept south of the primary - middle of Arkansas instead of St Louis.
  4. Carvers Gap
    At 117, this looks more like a bowling ball. It may still cut, but that looks more like it might not.
  5. Carvers Gap
    As @John1122 noted, I also have a 30% chance of snow in the morning. Yeah, I am watching the Euro roll - just a glutton for punishment. At 108, slp is in a similar location over the Four Corners. And yes, when lows go into the Four Corners, the Euro can have problems. So far, it looks more realistic than 12z in terms of the shape of the storm.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC goes cutter...but...it transfers waaaay south. Then, a slp crawls(and I mean crawls) up the SE coast. It eventually comes ashore and jogs nw inland. That would be a significant upslope event for the mountains, and snow would be flying in the valleys. Stall a storm out just northwest of Hatteras, and you have my full attention.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And the GFS w/ yet another solution as John notes. Realistic set-up.
  8. Carvers Gap
    30 day temp map by the 18z CFSv2.....
  9. Carvers Gap
    Do you still read that site about Bering Sea teleconnections? Have they mentioned any downstream cold later this month or next month?
  10. Carvers Gap
    Mine were fried! It has been my experience that hollies are nearly impossible to eradicate. I would think that the entire trunk and strongest branches will send out new shoots. Now, Japanese maples and crepe myrtles....they can die in that type of cold. I once saw a holly bush removed three feet deep by a backhoe. Two years later, the holly bush grew back through a crack in the pavement. Last year, I cut mine back to the ground during spring. They were four feet tall by the end of summer! But there will surely be less hardy varieties of plants that will be knocked out. I think if yours has made it 16 years, you are good. The ground here looks like it has been scalded by hot water.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think we likely get a good three weeks somewhere between Jan25 and Feb 20th or so. That is primetime so I am not complaining IF that is the window. Honestly, ensembles are a bit quicker w/ the transition than the CFSv2.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Definitely can see the pattern change in the LR now. The HB block pattern, which will have lasted almost 5 weeks by that time, finally is displaced enough that the trough is slipping from the West towards the East. Theres is plenty of mischief in the meantime as pieces of energy slip under the HB block. Most cut, but if one doesn't.....IYKYK.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yep, that is nothing more than a cutter. That run was really wonky from the word go when it reached the US coast. At this range, I can't blame it. But energy that lacks the look of a vortex....suspect right off the bat. Anyway, this will cut and then form a secondary low well of the coast which will not impact meaningful weather here unless it pulls way back!
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 168 it begins the SE jog which we have seen on other modeling.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yep, this one is going to cut to guess where....Indianapolis. LOL. Let's see if there is energy transfer.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @ 150 this is definitely north of the previous 0z run. That may not be a bad thing if it actually takes a SE jog. The 0z run never dug until it got off the coast.
  17. Carvers Gap
    @ 126 the 500vort map is not so much a vortex as it looks like the letter "v." No other run, including the 0z has that look. So, we are off to a wonky start.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just eyeballing this as it comes ashore near the Bay Area, it looks slightly north and the flow slightly further east. That makes me think this doesn't dig as far south as the 0z run did. That also falls in line w/ the GFS/CMC looks. We'll see. It is about like reading somebody's palm at this point in the run.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is rolling.....While we wait here is a LR look at the GEPS. Normally, I wouldn't worry about the last slide of an ensemble run. However, since Weeklies(of every sort) are looking colder...I will be interested to see if the global models will follow suit. That low in the Bering Sea... @jaxjagmanthat teleconnects to western ridging right?
  20. Carvers Gap
    The Christmas storm trended from Savannah to Indianapolis, and that was after we had a thread on it(no offense meant to wurbus, just saying that is how quickly that changed). At this range, I wouldn't rule anything out. Energy transfer scenarios are complicated enough inside of 72 hours. With 8 days to go, all options are on the table. For now, the likelihood of a storm has increased, but even that isn't a certainty. The Plateau could certainly be involved as it is as elevation. For now if pressed, I would say a coastal (maybe strong) is the likely option...The next likely option is just slider that passes north of us, does a Miller B transfer, and is a blizzard for inland PA, NY and the New England states.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Seems like modeling is settling on a bowling ball(Holston called that a few days ago) which enters the US around San Fran and just bulls its way across the country due east. How far it drifts SE once past the MS River makes a HUGE difference. The GFS transfers its energy to the SE coastline where it forms a stronger storm. The CMC keeps the majority of the energy north w/ some energy transfer to the coast, but to late to help anyone outside of inland PA and NY. When you look at the vorticity maps, there is very little difference between the two. So, right now we are riding the line between "rain changing to snow showers" or a high end mountain event w/ potential for lower elevation snows in E TN w/ just the slightest changes. What changes you say? Well, we need the storm to reform slightly more inland. If so, it would be a boomer. I am fairly conservative at this range. We are going to see a lot of changes over the next 4-5 days.
  22. Carvers Gap
    That banana high, if real, is going to trap that storm and it may just crawl or even stall out. Once east of us. The mountains, especially, may be looking at a high end event if it does that. Still, a long ways to go.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Both the CMC and GFS at 12z have the storm which is 8 days away, and understandably we are going to see lots of different variations at this range. That said, the 12z GFS, which doesn't have a big clown map for us, stalls the slp over eastern NC and VA for days - days!
  24. Carvers Gap
    And it wouldn't be a weather forum if we didn't talk about the unofficial/official SSW occurring in modeling. The GFS splits the strat at 10, 30, and 50mb. I don't know about the wind reversal piece. I am wondering if we actually need to redefine an SSW. When we see a fairly concentric lobe of x heights split into two lobes...that is a split in my book. And to paraphrase a great scientist....Amy Butler noted(did NOT say there was a split coming) that it is rare to have a split during this phase of the QBO and maybe Nina(?). However, those rare splits resulted in some pretty significant cold at mid-latitudes. That strat warming is likely playing extreme havoc w/ LR products right now IMHO. Lots of flip flopping in modeling. So, to me, that means we are looking at 50/50 as to whether this comes to NA. Then is is 60/40 as to whether it drops into the West and nation's mid-section. I am wary when I see cold at LR and see strat split occurring...I have been burned more than once with that set-up.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The one thing modeling has been pretty consistent w/ is a banana high over the top of the SLP. That essentially traps that storm along the coast. I am tempted to say that a storm now looks likely, but only tempted. We all know what can happen w/ storms at this range. Also, we are entering the timeframe where storms are lost(d5-7). If this thing is still there Sunday, it might be worth seeing if the potential is there to reel it in. Another characteristic which I have seen across modeling is the storm going negative tilt, turning due north, and then turning northwest for a brief time.
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