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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Powell, not sure if this is what you are looking for, but you can see the banding which should indicate the winds. Winds are slightly more WNW prior to this.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The message of LR modeling today is the rapid cooling of the North American continent after Jan 20th. Source regions for storms after that should be cold. That doesn't mean a ridge won't roll through. It has happened all winter, and it isn't going to stop now. It is still far enough out there that it could change, but it is just about "go time" for that transition at 500mb. The storm this weekend cracks the old pattern. The HB block will briefly try to re-establish after this weekend's storm, and then the next system will weaken it again. Then, a fairly large scale hemispheric pattern change would appear to be on the table. The GEFS at noon tried some can kicking, but 18z has resumed the drum beat. The 18z CFSv2 and GEFS Ext are coming in very cold. We had noted that as modeling began to "see" the MJO plots, they would eventually cool off. That has begun. Plenty could go wrong as we live in the sub tropics. For now, this is a good look. I will try to post some maps later
  3. Carvers Gap
  4. Carvers Gap
    With modeling jumping around (see GEFS today) and the overall construct of blocking and the height of the western ridge...I think the set-up is there for another severe cold snap, but this time w/ normal precip.
  5. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS appears to have sobered up. Major league 500mb cold delivery pattern. @John1122, that is your pattern, man. PNA/EPO driven. Looks good.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I missed the early 80s storms as I suffered through two winters in Orlando - not the place to be for a snow loving kid! Really, I suffered through central Florida summers. Then we loaded up the truck and moved back to Tennessee. I did hear about them via some relatives though.
  7. Carvers Gap
    On second thought...edit meaning I am changing my original comment and was in an ice storm. I was actually in that one in Knoxville I think. I snowed on top of the ice and was terrible for days. I just remembered the snow. But the ice was indeed bad. The interstate was only 1-2 lanes getting to campus. If I remember correctly, there was terrible cold which followed.
  8. Carvers Gap
    @John1122the 18z 3k NAM was decent for your area I think.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I hope you score BIG!
  10. Carvers Gap
    In for later! Thanks for the thread. Should be some fun amounts above 3000’ or those living in foothills communities.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Never mind...,Fountain got it! Good work, man!
  12. Carvers Gap
    I am not opposed to a thread about the event tomorrow nigh into Sunday AM. We have enough posters in those higher elevation areas that it might be a good idea. Winter storm watches are up for those places as well which would justify it. I am also good with it being in this thread as well.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, I have never been in an ice storm. I have experience icing and terrible roads due to that...but not the “turn out the lights” stuff.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Same! But the 12z GEFS is an over-running set-up if I have ever seen one. It has a slow moving frontal boundary and bitterly cold air behind it. It would tap the GOM likely. That is the setup for winter weather in west TN. We(people in E TN) want the EPS/CMC to verify or the lights are gonna start flickering w/ each run! LOL. But rest easy for today, the GEFS scores at range have been awful.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Not surprising.....this is nice, nice set-up for the mountains for a change. I may take a drive up to the mountains this weekend!
  16. Carvers Gap
    More winter wx on tap for higher elevations and maybe light accumulations in the valley. In NE TN, I would think most accumulations would be EAST of I-81 as most NW flow events set up shop there. West of I-81 we may get a stray snow shower...unless banding develops which some modeling does have. If that occurs, just throw out what I just said! So MRX looks correct, 1-2" in JC and Bristol wouldn't be out of the question. Kingsport...maybe a dusting, but I hold out hope that we over perform. LOL. Sometimes it happens.
  17. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, you can see the strat warming stuff starting to cause models to get jumpy. The 12z EPS and CMC are a pretty good pairing this winter, and seem steady. I think they will be correct, and they will likely adjust colder if legit. The 12z GEFS/GFS combo is a fairly big change in continuity - colder and further west w/ the trough. Though I doubt the GEFS is correct, that is just screaming for a west TN ice/snow storm.....couldn't draw it up any better. And that is why I think the strat stuff is causing issues.....big time cold heads into a pattern that didn't have it in the days prior in the LR. Usually that cold really wants to dump westward. Buckle up. This could be a wild 4-6 weeks once that first front rolls thought on the 23rd - hot, cold, hot, cold....base seasonal. I don't completely discount the GEFS as it often nails strat stuff, but it has also been woeful after d10 during this winter - woeful. That big dump of cold out west is often a sign that the PV is on the move...something to watch. If I was in middle and west TN, I would be licking my chops. This fits climatology and fits the pattern of this and the past two Nina winters.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Good write-up by Larry Cosgrove this morning on social media. Here is a brief excerpt. A rough end to the January Thaw? Storms and cold a big part of the national forecast. Many of you have gotten used to the rather benign nature of January so far. There is the (usual) talk of "winter cancel", and speculation that spring has already begun. This is, of course, rather unwise. Even with the alterations caused by global warming, winter is still here, lurking in Siberia and northern Canada. And when it returns full force to the lower 48 stats around January 20, my best advice is to be prepared.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles are decidedly colder overnight and this morning (just eyeballing it). The CFSv2 now has this 30 day timeframe from Jan25-Feb25. The PNA/EPO signal looks to be legit this time around. Precip is normal to above w/ this run. Remember w/ the last December cold shot that modeling lacked precip almost from when we initially saw the cold from afar. This is a bit different I think.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Fountain has been reeling this in for the foothills and mountain communities. MRX w/ an early post about the weekend snow for the higher elevations. Good look for the mountains. As for MBY, I am gonna take my 6% and relish every bit of it.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LR 12z GEFS and GEPS both are very cold for this range. Hopefully they can hold on long enough to stay cold. If that trough pulls too far north, a ridge will build under it. The Weeklies had something like that...and the pattern eventually become variable overall. Anyway, that looks like our window.
  22. Carvers Gap
    What is interesting about the storm on the 22nd, it is very similar to the one coming in this weekend. Cutter w/ modeling trying to develop a slp at the southern edge of the attached cold front. Again, this feature will most assuredly change by 18z.....but I am a big fan of slp forming in the GOM if a cold front slows or becomes stationary south of us. Something to watch as we get back to a better period for tracking.
  23. Carvers Gap
    On this morning's ensembles, the changes which will either permanently or temporarily alter the current pattern begin right around 270h or just prior. As we get closer to that timeframe, we should begin to see those changes manifest in operational modeling. The details will change 25x before we get to that time, but the 12z GFS has a good example of what "could" occur as a storm forms along the boundary of incoming cold air. Word of caution for those new to this, there is an old tenet....if you see a low in the Lakes the thermal profiles here won't hold snow easily.
  24. Carvers Gap
    From Robert at WxSouth on FBt: But all model guidance in the longer range has been gradually showing more and more of a big pattern change. It now looks like a complete reversal is coming to the overall Northern Hemisphere, the West will get to dry out and warm up, and the jet stream will be diving in the center and eastern part of the country by late January and lasting into early February. Long range large scale indices look to support the modeling on this pattern flip. So for now, we carry on and trudge through this warm rather boring and benign non-Winterlike pattern in the Southeast and MidAtlantic, with rain and thunderstorms every few days, followed by a brief cold snap and then repeating the process. But changes are in sight.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Nina winters are not good for the mountains(Apps to be specific). I think I actually wrote back in June that the mountains would be much below normal in terms of snowfall. The storm track during Ninas is just lousy for NE TN and mountain communities when the cold checks up at the Plateau as it has for three straight winters. It is good for the Plateau and points west. Even Knoxville can sometimes get some snow during Nina's. The reason for this is that many storms cut through the eastern valley or the spine of the Apps. Now, some Nina winters are really good, and this one isn't over yet. As for the long range, it still looks the same as it did yesterday - pattern change inbound around the 23rd. How long does that hold? TBD. I think a good window is upcoming. As for the weekend, this system was really a one-foot-in-one-foot-out from the word go. That means modeling had it heading to Chicago or an Apps runner(both on many runs), even a couple of runs yesterday had that. To steal a line from a MA poster, when the system looks complicated, the least complicated solution is usually right. In this case, it was a cutter to Chicago and a frontal passage here. And that is the danger of tracking systems from 7 days out...things do change. However, it is pretty amazing that modeling can track things at that range now. I can remember when 4-5 days was the max and 7 days was nearly random.
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