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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is coming in much colder.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Was that the ice storm/overrrunning event...if so, yes. I agree.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The interesting thing is the MJO for the Euro favors the cold coming west and the GFS does not...yet, the GFS brings the cold quicker than the Euro around Feb1. Ensembles are probably the way to go here. The MJO would favor cold being sent westward for sure. That said, the cold shot is so strong...I am not sure the SER can hold it back forever. This may be an instance where cold(for a time) overcomes the MJO forecast.
  4. Carvers Gap
    About half that goes over my head. LOL. I certainly looks like the SSW is having effects on modeling now. It has been some time since I have seen that much cold pouring into Canada. Cool thing is modeling has had this for some time. What is not being handled well(understandably) is where the cold goes. It is heading for the snow pack and less friction in the Mountain West...and I would think one or two waves of that make it at least to the Plateau.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z GEPS. That is remarkable similarity to the 12z GEFS in regards to the Siberian cold heading into Canada. When the GFS has a mega run like it did yesterday at 12z(a true outlier), sometimes that is a hint, and it just got ahead of itself...or it just blew a fuse or both. Model mayhem is likely w/ this amount of cold on the table. This change is not in the distant future. The actual discharge of Siberian air into North America has begun.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Great comments, Flash. @Holston_River_Rambler, I saw your post in Banter about Siberia. I though, "I wonder if that air mass is going to move?" Take a look at the 12z GEFS(yes, I know GEFS...), and look at the migration of cold into North America. For those new to this, watch Canada at the beginning of the run, and look at the end. Also, watch that bitter cold air flow across the North Pole into the Western Hemisphere.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The February thread is live. I will have d10+ discussion there.
  8. Carvers Gap
    There is likely going to be some warmth during mid-month - and maybe extreme. So, I am not starting this thread w/ any sugar coating. That said, models are sniffing out a cold shot to start this month which wasn't seen on some modeling even 24 hours ago. In life we go one day at a time. Let us not borrow the troubles of tomorrow until they arrive. 12z Yesterday and 12z today of the GEFS.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS after Feb 1 doesn't even look like the same model when compared to 12z yesterday...it is MUCH colder. Both the GEPS and GEFS seems to be picking up on an unforeseen cold shot right after Feb 1.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just to add to that....it actually is heading eastward on the 12z CMC, and that isn't the only model to have had that look during that timeframe. There is real model disagreement on whether it gets east of the Mississippi. However, what is lurking around Feb 1st is potentially the coldest air of the season for some locations in the Lower 48.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The cold at the end of the CMC run...whoa. If it manages to find its way eastward, lookout.
  12. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that modeling is ever so slightly pushing back the Feb warm-up. Take a look at the 0z Euro control.........
  13. Carvers Gap
    And one note, there are times the SSW stuff can have an immediate impact on the troposphere, especially with blocking. Can the SSW override the impending MJO likely tour of warm phases? Unlikely, but who knows. Feb is a notoriously tricky month for modeling.
  14. Carvers Gap
    We are going to have to watch the d7-12 timeframe for an overrunning event. I think that tends to favor west TN, but that boundary is in question(meaning how far SE does it go?). The 12z GFS yesterday had one extreme, but the 6z GFS still tries to push that air into the forum area, especially western areas. The 6z GEFS is not warm, and neither is the 0z Canadian ensemble during the d10-15 range(and that is a change for the GEFS). The EPS is warmer. I think the cold heads into the Mountain West and pushes eastward until the warm phases of the MJO take hold. Interesting LR trends for sure. The full run, 6z GEFS snow mean is 6-7" of snow for NE TN, and that has normally been a decent sign of impending winter weather here during the next couple of weeks. Time will tell.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Winter Storm Watch posted for the TN mountains.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro control did the same thing as the 18z GEFS. It popped a southwest ridge at range.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Interesting to see the 18z GEFS remove the SER at the end of its run. Probably is a blip, but I have seen the EPS try to remove it a couple of times this weeks. I don't think this happens, but I do ask this question sometimes? Once the trough goes into the East, is it going to be tough to move?
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just got back from Knoxville. The 18z GFS pretty much doubled down. Wow.
  19. Carvers Gap
    500mb patterns are fairly similar but temps are all over the place on ensembles for our forum area d7+.
  20. Carvers Gap
    There is a likely warmup coming after the 5th. The really question I have is do we do the same thing that we did in December - go very cold and then go warm?
  21. Carvers Gap
    So, the 12z Euro control does something similar to the GFS. It’s ensemble is pretty meh. Not sure an ensemble would catch an extreme run.
  22. Carvers Gap
    True that. I always preface my post to friends with...but this is the GFS. LOL Thar cold shot is on most models. Some hold it in the west. Some get it to the Apps. This GFS run got it to the coast. The CMC had it, but it ran out of time.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The crazy thing, the 12z GFS has total support from the 12z Canadian ensemble. I think we see very cold air after the 27th. Modeling has been adamant about this for several weeks. Can it cross the Plateau? Open for debate.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That might be a response to the SSW....it is a bit quick, but nature doesn’t follow my rules! LOL. That is how it looks.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, no kidding. LOL
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