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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And looking back on the GFS struggles, those wild swings were possibly due to the anomalous cold in the patter during the long range. I do see models flipping around quite a bit right now. I would guess another cold intrusion is likely. The CFSv2 is all over the place.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The GFS seems to have returned to some sort of normal state. Let's see if the new upgrade is as good as last winter's at being able to sniff out storms and cold at range. The 18z GFS operational and the 12z GEPS ensemble are hinting strongly at cold air intrusion by around Jan 8th w/ the 500mb pattern transitioning w/ a cold front around the 5th. The 18z GFS again is hinting at snow showers during that time frame. We have the clipper tomorrow which Nashville already has a SWS for and some of western KY in a WWA. I wouldn't be surprised if we weren't beginning to track a new system around the New Year - meaning we can "see" on modeling the next opportunity to track (likely second week of Jan or early third). So far, there is no can kicking, but that wouldn't surprise me. There has been some question as to whether the Jan 8th system can break the ridge over the east and push it NE(maybe forming a new block over Greenland or pseudo block).
  3. Carvers Gap
    SWS out of Nashville... ...Accumulating Snowfall Possible Across Mid State on Monday... A quick moving storm system will approach later tonight and move across mid state region on Monday. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected with a possible change to light rain showers across locations around and west of I-65 Corridor during late afternoon hours as temperature rise above freezing. As temperatures lower below freezing again during evening hours on Monday night, isolated snow showers will continue before tapering off from southwest to northeast as evening hours progress. Total snowfall accumulations will range from less than a tenth of an inch southwestern portions of mid state region to around one quarter to around one half of an inch for locations around and north of I-40, especially locations west of I-24. This may cause some additional slick spots here or there on area roadways. However,no significant widespread travel issues are expected as of this time.
  4. Carvers Gap
    We don’t even need a real split...just a disruption. Often a true split results in cold going to Asia or the NA West. The current cold is due to it being jostled earlier this month IMO. A true split is often chaotic. But the SPV and TPV, excluding the current time frame and for the upcoming couple of weeks, has been disrupted enough to produce the NAO which caused record or near record cold. I am guessing that repeats in a less extreme way. But that is only a guess. It will be interesting to see. At this point, lots of factors in play in addition to any strat warming - climatology, MJO, snowpack over NA, rising QBO, maybe a new NAO decadal cycle???, impending Nino....
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think my working definition of an SSW is a heating of the strat which causes a disruption in the SPV. Sometimes that has no effect on the TPV. Sometimes it disrupts it normal position. This month we have seen the disruption begin in the TPV and work up if I remember correctly. We may be getting ready to see that again. The upcoming warm episode is likely due to the TPV centering and getting its footing back. With the Pacific so hostile, we are prob going to need some help. Without the disruption and consequential NAO this month....we would have likely been torch city otherwise as evidenced by the upcoming warmup. December was a textbook Niña of extremes though. The 12z ensembles all looked like they were making a transition to either a PNA/EPO ridge and/or HB block. That results in the SE ridge being abated. The SER presence on modeling is strong. It will come back as a standing wave every time the block relaxes. As of now I lean base warm with several extended bouts of cold. But unlike December, January’s climatology favors snow. We will see.
  6. Carvers Gap
    JB says this one is bottom up. That should result in a quicker response in the troposphere. At the point I think I have SSW stuff figured out, I realize I don't! LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, those things are feast or famine. I have heard similar though. Just kind of seems like our year in terms of cold. Get that STJ lit, and things could be good.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 10F at 8:30 on this Christmas morning. The wind chill is -2F We still have a light dusting of snow in the shadows. The North Fork of the Holston is trying to freeze over. 28 for a high today will feel like a heat wave. We are gonna be pushing 70 in early January before returning to normal or slightly above by late in the second week. That is going to feel tropical.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Just reading the MA forum tea leaves...maybe the STJ stays active. Modeling is still all over the place this morning in regards to timing, intensity, and duration of the next cold snap. It ranges from seasonal to extreme cold to just slightly AN. The bouncing around may be a hint that more intense cold is entering the pattern.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Some severe outbreaks are embedded in many really good winters.
  11. Carvers Gap
    As we are about to find out, if we hadn't had the -NAO....temps would have been in the 70s for much of December. It just saved our bacon.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the North Fork above its confluence w/ the S Fork is full of HUGE chunks of ice. I would say by Weds AM it is gonna be almost frozen over.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Always allow for kicking the can down the road. Looks to me like the transition to colder begins Jan5-10 at 500mb...and then really gets going around the 12th if modeling is close to being correct. The 12z CFSv2 flipped back to cold for that time frame in what would be another extreme episode. What we really want for fun winter games is to trap the vortex under a broad based banana high in which the EPO/PNA connects to AN heights in the Davis Straits. I still would say I am concerned this flips warm and holds, but for now...modeling looks good. Below would bring it:
  14. Carvers Gap
    Loosely, it looks like a transition to a more favorable pattern (after the warmth) begins to return around the 5th and is solidly in place by the 10th at 500mb. It would not surprise me to see some can kicking. Cold will lag slightly. I would post the 12z GEFS and GEPS, but they are 300+ and subject to change. Basically, the pattern retrogrades the eastern ridge into the EPO/PNA regions. That said, the CFSv2 (which has a great MJO progression) is having none of it at 0z and 6z. @WxUSAFnoted(paraphrasing) in the MA forum that the MJO has not had a huge influence on weather of late over NA. I doubt this is a slam dunk, but for now...the PNA/EPO ridge looks to build and central and eastern Canada cool quickly in response. What will be interesting is whether NAO blocking builds back as the potential ridging out west wanes later this month. @Holston_River_Rambler, it does look like a repeating pattern similar to November in many ways. As always at this range, huge grains of salt. 10-11 is a nice analog so far.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And thanks for letting me duck-in for a sec. You all do a great job over here!!!! I read it pretty much 3-4x per day.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Not sure. The only reason I noticed it was that I had just looked at the CPC site. I double and triple checked to make sure I was actually getting the same model. Maybe the run changed? Modeling is defninitely back-and-forth w/ MJO plots regardless. We have speculated in the TN forum that maybe the colder surface SSTs (near the equatorial dateline recently) are preventing convection from reaching phase 8 - I have not looked at those SSTs this week. The CFSv2 is waffling almost with each run. It looks like phase 7 and then progresses to 8 OR it stalls in 7 and rotates back(just looking at the NA 500mb look as evidence). The 12z GEFS and 12z GEPS do like more like the PNA begins to build out west late in their runs. I am not holding my breath w/ either an optimal or sub-optimal solution though. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/emom.shtml
  17. Carvers Gap
    Odd. What I see is quite different than the above graphic. This is what I am getting when I go to the site. That is not a terrible progression(if it verifies), even though low amplitude.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is crazy. Getting a little Cherokee Lake snow band as we speak. It set up over JC last night.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Long Range Discussion: The CFSv2 today (both runs) is woefully out of sync w/ its MJO(goes into 8 if I remember correctly). The GFS and GEPS and Euro Weeklies show a PNA/EPO ridge building out West. I don't think this is a slam dunk as evidenced by the CFS today. However, until modeling settles on the MJO progression...we are going to see haywire solutions. Additionally, when modeling is behaving erratically....extremely cold air in the LR can cause that. Remember when modeling lost the cold, found it, kicked the can, and then it came gangbusters this week? I do. Similar look for mid January. I can't tell if winter is departing(unlikely) or reloading(likely) with any certainty....
  20. Carvers Gap
    The WC is now -22F. That is rarified air for me.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for posting this. If we can keep this from jogging north, this is the old school clipper that used to follow big storms. If real, it wouldn't surprise me to see amounts higher as the ground is frozen and the air mass would support mega ratios.
  22. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Wind chills....
  23. Carvers Gap
    I was just over in JC. Low level snow squalls are pushing through.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 18z is an extreme look - right off the North Pole. We may be in a repeating pattern as Holston mentioned earlier. Not sure at this point.
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS has the return to cold inside of 300hours. Massive PNA. It will change some I am sure at this range. It is just a good example of where this could go if that ridge pops. That gigantic banana high setup is money.
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