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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    This thing is coming like a freight train.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Both the CMC and GFS at 12z are picking up on northern stream energy around the 27th. The GFS solution is wild - dives the system through west TN all the way to the GOM and brings it back up the coast. The CMC has a slider. Something definitely worth watching.
  3. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Departures from normal and not actual temps. 12z GFS...
  4. Carvers Gap
    Tagging onto @Stovepipe
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think it is reasonable to say that there is potential for some snow with this front. Could be flurries. Could be snow showers. Could be light to moderate snow. The CMC has it, but likes middle TN more. The one thing I noticed is the 12z sped up the second storm quite a bit, and the spacing between the first and second storms decreased by quite a bit. Upper middle/west TN continue to be in the consensus sweet spot w/ NE TN being a wild card - may depend on totally on upslope(not good for MBY but good for areas east of I81). I highly doubt modeling is anywhere close to nailing down ana front amounts if those do indeed occur. While I don't trust the GFS at all past d7, it seems a bit more adaptable than other modeling w/ stronger storms in close range. Good test upcoming. I would not be surprised to see it score a coup, though amounts were slightly lower this go around.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Pretty significant upslope signal for NE TN and SE KY. 2-3" fall after the initial front. Let's see if it has any support. This is basically the same set-up as 6z, just a little bit less juice. There are some changes to the overall storm. As this nears the coast, we could see one final switch-up in modeling, and that may account for the changes we just saw.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Just digging into the dreaded MJO, the GEFS looks like it is forecasting the MJO on a different planet compared to other models. That is likely why it is putting the trough out West d10+. It is trying to stay in the warm phases when virtually all other modeling rolls into the colder phases. Could it be right? Sure, but would be the first time in several months for it to be right at d10+.(really since the fall upgrade).
  8. Carvers Gap
    But...we are going to have to see it get some support. It is on an island with that run. So, all caveats apply when looking at clown maps of one outlier run. Let's hope it is the beginning of a trend. The run does make sense though.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Addendum...that map is heftier due to upslope which follows in the 24 hours after the front. Many areas north of I-40 pick up 1-2" more in the bitterly cold air that the precip falls into.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yep, that looks like an ana front signature. You can also see where the elevation is in TN. NW flow develops the next day. WB must be more smooth than Pivotal.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I am assuming MRX probably wrote this prior to 6z...This will be remembered as one of the great pre-Christmas fronts. We normally don't see these in December, but it does remind me very much of a couple of years ago around this time. The models are coming into better agreement on the pattern for Thursday night and Friday, as the GFS has trended toward the ECMWF solution of a closed low developing over the MS Valley/OH Valley region on Thursday night, with the surface low rapidly deepening and tracking across the Great Lakes region. This solution keeps most of the wrap-around moisture to the north of our area, and the GFS has backed off on it snow amounts. Confidence is increasing that this won`t be a significant snow event. However, the blast of arctic air into the area will still have the potential to cause significant impacts. The GFS continues to be slower with the timing of the cold frontal passage, showing it occurring after 12Z Friday. But this timing is not as much of an outlier among the NBM members as it was with previous runs. So the forecast will slow down the arrival of cold air late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly between 06Z and 12Z. With this very cold air moving in quickly, any moisture on roads from earlier rain will rapidly freeze. This will continue to be the focus of impact messaging for the holiday weekend. Through Friday, strong cold advection will result in high temps occurring in the morning, and falling through the day. Isolated to scattered snow showers can be expected all day, with the greatest coverage in the northern half under the upper low. Winds will be strong and gusty behind the front, likely 15-30 mph with gusts of 40- 50 mph. With temperatures in the teens and 20s on Friday, and single digits Friday night, wind chills will reach dangerously low levels, especially in the mountains.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't begin to know the answer to that. Re: 6z GFS. I think it is just the strength of the front, orographic lift, and the overhead jet. It also could just be that the 6z GFS is a blip and had more precip on this run. We will know if it is a trend soon. It looks like the convection in the GOM gets out of the way quicker which may allow for the conveyor belt to pick up more moisture. We have all seen the movie before...great forecast but convection fires in the GOM and cuts our qpf in half. The lift occurs on the Plateau and a secondary wave over the eastern valley - think of a wave on the ocean where you have a peak then a valley and a secondary peak. The other lift occurs over TRI as we are just a bit higher here. Points east of I-81 are favored.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I looked to see if there was a wave in the 6z GFS. On the 700 vort map, there is a small piece of energy which is caught on the lee side of the Apps. That could be part of it. The other orographic lift IMO. The jet has to be roaring above. When that hits any amount of elevation, it is going to squeeze precip out. But again and not to beat a dead horse, the front is so strong it is going squeeze precip on its own without the lift.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS may be right here, but it mishandled the upcoming pattern pretty badly in the LR. The verification scores above actually show the CMC scoring higher than all other modeling on multiple occasions at that range. I lean it’s direction for now. Until the GFS shows me otherwise at d10+, I am weighting it less in the LR. The EPS could be right as that is a phase 7 MJO? That said, what we are seeing sure looks like a reload of the current pattern and it should be as the current pattern’s clock doesn’t really run out until mid Jan to early Feb - 4-6 weeks. if one can ignore the Cfsv2’s cold bias, it’s evolution at 500mb seems reasonable this morning. It looks like the Canadian. The Canadian nailed the upcoming cold pattern and it’s intensity...prob due to its own cold bias. The GEPS was great at 500mb.
  15. Carvers Gap
    As many have said, a front that powerful is gonna have a ton of energy. It should churn out some precip, In addition to the extra precip, the further west that storm gets the more of a window opens for mischief to happen along that front here. I don’t trust the GFS as it failed miserably in predicting the location of the upcoming low. It has moved from North Carolina to Illinois. That said, once it locks in the track...it probably will handle the precip amounts a bit better. As others have noted above, the Euro seems to be missing precip which had been a common bias of that model in this setup.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I truly don't know. The difficulty with tracking systems so far out is that inaccuracy is plentiful. We will know more by Tuesday morning. I think our best chance is for the cold to rush into that front. If the cold hangs up even slightly it is cold chasing rain. However, this front is powerful and the dynamics are going to be extremely difficult for modeling to handle well IMO. We see fronts like this maybe once out of every four or five years.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Flooding is quite common during even the most severe of winters, and so is severe weather.
  18. Carvers Gap
    La Nina years are full of extremes. Take that to the bank pretty much every year we have them. That is what makes them crazy. We are going to be approaching some record lows. The sheer power of the cold will be impressive, even for long time weather watchers. We are 100% fighting seasonal climatology - it doesn't want to snow here until January through early March. We have been spoiled w/ a few early season snow storms in the valley during the past 10-12 years. Prior to that, the valley experienced very few big, early season snow storms - even when I was younger. I encourage everyone to enjoy the potential for snow showers and cold weather for Christmas. It could be so much worse on many levels.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The CMC continues to advertise the potential for light freezing rain in the valley on the morning of the 22nd.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And this is why the CMC has to be considered in the medium to long range...
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC rolls a ridge through on the 28th-29th(EPS is a hair slower and ensuing trough more centered in Kansas prob a bias in play there). The pattern reloads at HL almost immediately after that. Then, the PNA fires.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Food for thought.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And one point further, the GFS operational is quite different from the CMC/Euro operationals. As we have seen w/ the system later this week, the GFS got smoked. We certainly should warm-up, and that warm-up has been fairly evident as a ridge rolls through. It looks like "for now" that ridge keeps on going and the trough settles right back. The GEPS barely warms up at all, and it has led the way in terms of cold severity in d10-15. Big message -> lots of variability after d5....lots.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Digging through the LR ensembles and CFSv2. I am not so sure whatever warm-up we have is going to be very short lived. I originally though Jan10th as the time to return to cold. Just looking at things, the PNA is going to fire almost immediately as the current pattern breaks down. The EPS backs the trough to the middle of the country and then sends it eastward as the run ends. The CFSv2 at 12z is quite similar.. The EPS run-to-run change d10-15 is quite cooler. Again, like a broken record, normal temps will get the job done in January. As for flooding, many a cold pattern has been preceded by excessive rain....
  25. Carvers Gap
    Say what we want about the lack of snow, but the 18z GFS is straight bringing the cold.
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