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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The CMC continues to advertise the potential for light freezing rain in the valley on the morning of the 22nd.
  2. Carvers Gap
    And this is why the CMC has to be considered in the medium to long range...
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC rolls a ridge through on the 28th-29th(EPS is a hair slower and ensuing trough more centered in Kansas prob a bias in play there). The pattern reloads at HL almost immediately after that. Then, the PNA fires.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Food for thought.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And one point further, the GFS operational is quite different from the CMC/Euro operationals. As we have seen w/ the system later this week, the GFS got smoked. We certainly should warm-up, and that warm-up has been fairly evident as a ridge rolls through. It looks like "for now" that ridge keeps on going and the trough settles right back. The GEPS barely warms up at all, and it has led the way in terms of cold severity in d10-15. Big message -> lots of variability after d5....lots.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Digging through the LR ensembles and CFSv2. I am not so sure whatever warm-up we have is going to be very short lived. I originally though Jan10th as the time to return to cold. Just looking at things, the PNA is going to fire almost immediately as the current pattern breaks down. The EPS backs the trough to the middle of the country and then sends it eastward as the run ends. The CFSv2 at 12z is quite similar.. The EPS run-to-run change d10-15 is quite cooler. Again, like a broken record, normal temps will get the job done in January. As for flooding, many a cold pattern has been preceded by excessive rain....
  7. Carvers Gap
    Say what we want about the lack of snow, but the 18z GFS is straight bringing the cold.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Amen to that. There is a crap ton of energy w/ that front. It has to go somewhere.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Rarely all or nothing. I think I have been incredibly clear that I think this is a cutter. I have also learned to never say never. That said, I have been burned by this set-up more times than I can count. That slp out front certainly matters if it continues to increase in strength. The big problem right now is spacing. I think we see snow showers at the least w/ the second system and possible some valley ice w/ the first system, especially in southwest Virginia. With it being so cold for the second system, the mountains could score some light amounts in the east and even the valleys. This entire tracking experience is a good reminder that when tracking a storm from seven days out....we have to survive 28 model runs to get to fruition. I doubt this is done changing even at this point. I strongly suspect there will be one final system that rotates in after the big storm. Cold shots often have clippers that follow. If this changes, the change I would suspect is that we see more precip along the front and cold rushing in along that similar to a couple of Christmases ago. Any lee side slp(not the frontrunner I am speaking of) that forms along the front has to be watched. Those lee side lows can amp systems sometimes. I am not saying that is a certainty. I am saying that front is incredibly strong. I would be surprised not to see some flakes in the air IMBY.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it's complicated for sure. In my years of tracking weather the engine/caboose setup is probably the most difficult for modeling to handle. A few days ago, modeling was trying to pop a Miller A. Then modeling began to emphasize the western cutter. We are right about where modeling rediscovers storms. I think the cutter is most likely, but I am not convinced there aren't some surprises embedded.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The other thing to note is the jet streak raging over the TN valley immediately after the low. Let's see if something rides that after the big storm.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I wouldn't say I am pulled back in. But the Euro cranking that front runner gives me pause. It wasn't there earlier. Most modeling has that to some extent. Even the GEFS at 12z has that. If that front runner speeds up or slows down in the least....the solution is amended.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think our chances are waining...but no way modeling has this all nailed down. The front runner was much stronger on this run. As Tellico noted yesterday evening, I wouldn't be shocked that some sort of transfer of energy is occurring. The primary pushes into the Midwest while a secondary forms along the coast. I don't think this is sorted out yet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 120, a slp pressure develops in the upper Gulf states and then slides along the lee side of the Apps. That'll do the trick if real.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Don't look now but here comes another somewhat different look by the Euro.....stay tuned.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Muddled picture persists as most modeling now have a fairly decent front running slp. What needs to be watched is whether modeling beginning to strengthen the front runner. If that happens, all bets are off on the synoptics of this. I think a cutter is likely, but that front-running low(engine and caboose) pattern has wrecked havoc on model solutions in the past.
  17. Carvers Gap
    It likely would melt before the second system arrives. This is the front runner system. Again, I can't find it on any other modeling.
  18. Carvers Gap
    LR Update: Looks like we see a warm-up from Dec28-10th. The EPS led the way w/ this by sniffing out the Pacific flooding the continent w/ maritime air. We "may" still have a trough in the SE, but that is not for certain, and source regions are certainly suspect on modeling. Is this a pattern change or just a temporary relaxation? TBD. We need to see if the can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to cold. I "think" cold returns fairly quickly, but I could certainly see a scenario where cold returning taking a lot of patience. Normal temps get the job done here in January. Lots of fluidity in the pattern to start January.
  19. Carvers Gap
  20. Carvers Gap
    The CMC is showing ice on the 22nd for the eastern valley. I don't see that on other modeling, but something to watch. That set-up is one way to get it. When rain approaches from the SE, there is air pushed down the west slopes of the Apps(warming those slopes due to compressed air...downsloping), the cold gets pushed in the deepest parts of the TN valley and west slopes of the Plateau....and ZR. I don't think it is overly likely as the thermal profile on the CMC is colder. Time of day is important.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Perfect. The GFS is scoring decently at d7. It was terrible a few weeks ago, has now cleaned up its act.
  22. Carvers Gap
    My dad was hauling a load from St Louis and barely made it back to TRI. He called us and said he was running the leading edge of it. He pulled in the driveway, and the hammer dropped. Has to be that one. That is a great example of how this "could" work. The 18z is how I would have imagined that would look.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I am probably picking apart a single run a bit too much as we are still 5-6 days out. That said, you all can see that most of the lows are in line w/ the current track or eastward. Notice that cluster off the coast of Georgia? It looks to me like the trend would be eastward IF that run was correct......
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just settling in for a brief respite before heading back out....the 27th on the CMC/Euro is pretty close to another storm.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Last post for a bit. That was a hop, skip, and a jump from being a Miller A. It looks like the southern extent of the spine of the Apps split the slp. Some of it lifted into E TN. Some of it skirted into the Piedmont. I think modeling(ICON to some extent) is not handling the front runner slp well.
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