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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    As a matter of fact, there are multiple threats to follow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a storm to track per the 12z CMC and GFS.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Digging through modeling this morning, there are some "much below normal" solutions showing up between Dec 15-20th across all global models. The 0z Euro control has this as does the 6zCFSv2(20-25 degree departures from normal over TN, and also the 0z GFS. The 0z GEPS is not warm either. I am NOT saying that is going to happen. However, many of us have seen the extreme blocking and have been curious as to why some colder solutions have not surfaced. Now let's see if we can get those inside of d10.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I hesitated to even look at modeling this morning after Friday night. Things look on track for the first cold front to arrive maybe a week from tomorrow.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I’d think the near record -NAO in combination with a terrible MJO(IO influence) is not something most modern models have ever had to contend with during a third year Niña. There might be 2-3 analogs at best.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS holds. I won't say, "Game on," but if I can see 3-4 more operational runs/ensembles....After some shaky overnight runs, much improved 12z suite. Will it hold?
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro follows suite (operationals finally showing what ensembles have shown). If the 12z EPS holds, this train may have somehow gotten back on the tracks.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Pretty interesting. So a standing wave (monster SER) has been a characteristic of recent GFS runs(not this one). The 12z has a system slide across the MidWest on the 12th, and it (and the subsequent system) just destroys the SER. Good call by @Daniel Booneabove. That is the golden ticket. If the SER establishes, we are pretty much screwed. The 12z GFS really shows the NAO block flex. I am not buying that run quite yet, but FINALLY the actual operational matches the previous ensembles.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Whoa. Mercy me, what a flip from the 12z GFS. Now, that is understandable at this range...but that is a nearly complete reversal from d8-16. If we get cold, send me a Christmas card for the from earlier this morning. LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    1. We definitely need help from the Pacific. There have been runs which show the EPO/PNA ridge building. For you all in middle and west TN, the western ridge is money. In E TN, the NAO or HB block (especially in conjunction w/ a falling QBO and weak Nino) is a better result. The EPO/PNA ridge during Ninas is often too far west(for E TN) which leaves E TN in the warm sector. So, kind of depends on where one lives. But for now, we definitely need help from the Pacific. We "should" catch some brief cycles into phases 7-8 and let that ridge out West build. A -PNA is not good for any of us east of the MS. 2. Again, watching the 12z GFS flip-flop yet again.....I am not sure modeling is handling the NAO block well. The 12z GFS has again flipped to a much colder run. 3. As for E TN winters, NE TN has not had great winters during the past several years, especially once December is over. Nina winters favor E TN during December and middle/western areas are favored as winter progresses into Jan/Feb. Middle and west TN have scored big due to the Nina pattern, even Knoxville. The eastern mountains and NE TN have drawn the short straw. That is cool though, the pendulum will swing back. This Nina cycle has been greatly needed in order to reset the gradient so that El Nino's actually have a normal effect.
  11. Carvers Gap
    What essentially is occurring is a standing wave(SE ridge on steroids ad nauseam). The ensembles do have us cooling back to normal by the 15th, but I am not sure how believable the LR is after this likely bust. Could it flip back? Sure. At this point I think we have seen another strat warm which was handled poorly by modeling. During future strat warms...we will look for a similar bias(cold in LR which doesn’t verify). For now, much above normal temps for the first half of Dec look likely.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I think we are looking at a pretty big bust regarding east coast temps. Where modeling was originally looking at the 12-13th for cold...it is now pushed way back. The only cold is way out there if it is there at all (6s GFS is void of cold in our half of the nation). It is possible we will still see some cold after the 15th, for now the cold was just a mirage. Could it be delayed? Sure, But we need the Pacific to throw us a bone, or the cold is headed there. The tough part about this is Dec is often the colder month of La Nina’s(not always but often). The NAO may well just be too early. An NAO during late spring and summer can cause very warm temps.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I feel like we are just about able to nail down the onset of seasonably cold air by mid-December's standards anyway. Looks to me like it will be here around December 12th, give our take 24 hours. Most operationals(not the CMC), and all major global ensembles seem to have this as at the start date. I was reading @WxUSAF's comments in the MA forum about how the high latitude bridge will potentially fail to capture a portion of the TPV. IMHO, that will cause our source region to be continental Canadian air masses. That's not too shabby(to quote Sandler), but it ain't TPV vodka cold. As noted earlier, the Pacifica (PNA, EPO) is so hostile that it will take a near record -NAO just to balance the sheet slightly BN in terms of temps. What happens after the NAO decays will be the topic of much debate. Does the EPO reform? I think it might, but there are also analogs where the cold goes west and doesn't come back for months. For the time being, I think we get BN temps beginning around the 13th and hold that for a couple of weeks at least. Honestly, as John noted, winter is really just showing up on time.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS operational at 500 looks(for now!) like what one would imagine a -NAO block would look.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS and 12z EPS are singing the same song so to speak. Now, we need to reel the pattern inside of d10. Good looks on the ensembles, and now we need to see the operationals get on board by Sunday or Monday.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Fairly significant changes to the 6z GEFS right after 240. It has lost the ridge over the East when compared to 0z. A trough is now in place. We will see how the rest of the run looks here in a minute. Good sign.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The global ensembles continue to advertise a fairly significant pattern change between the 11-12th of this month. We are gonna be fighting a terrible Pacific set-up which is going to influence the pattern. If it is going to take a record -NAO to provide balance, we have a good idea of what is coming when the NAO breaks down. Unless the Pacific flips to the -EPO after the NA0 degrades, a very hostile Pacific will run the pattern. As many have noted, there is some '89-90 in this pattern. With the warm start to projected for the month, '89 looks less of a match with each passing day. 2010-2011 looks like a decent match for December. Back to the pattern change. It remains to be seen just how cold this pattern will get. For now, seasonably below normal once the pattern changes seems about right. The opportunity to go much below normal is there. Right now, it looks like the cold goes west and then slides east, which oddly, is very similar to what we have seen after nearly every strat warm of the past few winters....
  18. Carvers Gap
    The EPS still give us plenty of hope, but the GEFS seems to be leading the way right now. That said, in the fifteen years we have lived in this house, this is the first time I have seen the leaves off the trees this early. Completely stripped bare are most of them. I would guess Mother Nature knows something.
  19. Carvers Gap
    If the GFS(all runs today) is correct, the trough will set up shop in the West and just roll periodic cold fronts through the East. I am definitely dialing back expectations now.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I think we are going to see the -NAO hook into the SER for a 5-7 day time frame before mid-month. That should open the door for very warm temps. But it should be noted, that when the SER has connected into the NAO before, we have see the PV get hammered and split. I think right now there are so many dynamics in play, it is just too many plates for models to handle. That said, the potential for an NAO infused eastern ridge is growing. If the EPS is right, that should retrograde westward fairly quickly. The GFS/GEFS may have scored a coup on this feature.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And one last post within a flurry of posts, a bit of a SER is not a terrible thing w/ a block. We want the STJ/southern branch to attack the block, and not just get suppressed to Cuba. I suspect in coming days, we see that boundary get set quite far to the south.
  22. Carvers Gap
    What we see above is slider city which is one of the best ways we get snow for the entire forum area(E TN also gets snow from Miller A types, and middle/west score from Apps cutters and Miller B variations). How suppressed will that storm track be? IDK. As noted by a met in the MA forum, modeling often will correct further south as the event gets closer which is opposite of "normal trending" which is north and west. Where that boundary sets up is important. I think we will see the boundary initially set-up over the Ohio Valley. Whether that pushes further south will depend greatly on how much the SER fights back. Oh yeah, the SER....it is present. However, if one looks at the EPS d10-15, the block(and maybe double block) wipes it our for a TBD time frame.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Here are the 5day(day 10-15)means for the 0z EPS....only fly in the ointment is BN precip. Impressive for 5 day means. Now, sometimes BN precip can actually reflect a snowy pattern. Looks to me like the mid latitudes will feel the colder effects of the block around Dec 12th. Modeling has bounced all over the place with trying to nail down the initial cold front, but ensembles generally favor that date. With the initial cold being pushed back several days, the actual norms a colder as we are looking at mid-December vs early December. This would be a pretty awesome score by modeling. I feel like wx modeling will have nailed this from 3-4 weeks out(Weeklies).
  24. Carvers Gap
    Overnight ensembles continue to advertise a big switch between hour 240-260 which is just outside the 10day window. I would expect to see more winter storms than I am seeing in fantasy land, but I also know that modeling has extreme difficulty handling the block. The EPS is nearly perfect. Remember that GFS run from many days ago that hooked the PNA ridge into the NAO block and trapped cold under it? It had that, but the source region cold was not crazy cold - but probably cold enough. That look normal delivers suppressed flow w/ some northwest flow components.
  25. Carvers Gap
    That is pretty amazing. We ended up +2.9, but we had several days of more than +15 and a +21.
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