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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Well, it is in the cold phases now so it hasn’t skipped them. Some plots show 4-6 in a few weeks, and some show it crossing the COD after 3 and going to 6(which would likely bring it back to 8). Some stall in the MJO in 3. A warm tour is definitely a possibility. I am just glad we are on this side of the Apps.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has a great look on the 22nd.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I would argue the pattern change is at hand. It will very likely be at hand by the 22nd. The MJO is rolling through 8 as we get this cold shot. The HB block is highly likely about to be gone. Now, does the new pattern favor us? That is the question of the hour. I think the changing wavelengths of Feb give us a shot. Also, it is very important to note that our cold source region is very likely about to vastly improve which means storms aren't dealing with marginal air - that is the biggest aspect to the pattern which is likely to change.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is currently mid January. I would be very surprised if we don't see more chances. I mean, how many people say this current upslope chance two weeks ago? I think the windows are: Jan 22-23 Jan27 roughly. As for February, I would again be shocked if February and March didn't deliver some chances. To me, there is plenty of variability in modeling to make me think we see more winter. My mind hasn't changed on that all. That said, I (nor anyone else) don't know the future. So the "winter cancel" or "winter continues" crowd is nothing more than following a Groundhog in Pennsylvania - might be right and might not. But with half of January and all of February to go, climatology says we should have some more chances.
  5. Carvers Gap
    18-19 was it. December 18 was crazy cold. It looked like that might continue and poof!
  6. Carvers Gap
    I continue to really like the timeframe of Jan23-Jan27th for a couple of chances for middle and/or west TN.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling senses a cold shot is coming, and can't decide which system to accentuate. This is nearly the same setup we saw back in December. It took modeling some time to sort through which system was going to bring the cold.
  8. Carvers Gap
    This will work. And this matches ensembles. Way out there, but many were using this model to cliff dive in other forums. This will change I am sure, but this is an example of where this could go.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The d10+ evolution on the 12z GFS is what we want, and is what is on many ensembles - large scale, NA cold outbreak. Is it right? No idea, but we want to see some of those looks in the LR to support ensembles.
  10. Carvers Gap
    DT. is a good forecaster. Oddly, I am not a "glass half full" kind of person. I wish that I was. Positive people are much more fun to be around. So, I can relate to DT on some levels. I am a bit of a realist. So, you all should know that up front as you read my posts. If I lived along the East coast, I would probably have a different perspective for sure. They are watching snow threads pop for places hundreds of miles to their southwest, including today. They also didn't get much benefit from the December cold or get near as cold as we did. La Nina winters don't have many coastal tracks. Most Nina storm tracks are cutters or inland runners. The QBO flip will impact them the most. The QBO is deal is real as well. Some places in the MA are sitting at zero for snow. Our forum area(as a whole...not the entirety) has done much better. As for MBY, we got very light accumulating snow overnight, so I can't complain. I need to go back and look at the coastal forums right before snowmegadon hit. It was pretty dismal. I used to get into the doom and gloom, but not as much anymore. I run quite a bit, and cold winters are tough. Right now, we have gotten in some good miles this month. Plus, I really hate 90 degree days more than I love snow. So, I just enjoy not being smothered for most of winter. Plus, I think living in Florida for a couple of years as a kid really changed my perspective. A snow lover spending a winter in central Florida....that is a snow lover's hell. LOL. There is a lot to be thankful for in life... And one last thing, there is a lot to enjoy about this hobby beside snow. I got into this to follow snow storms. I have branched out a bit, and that makes this much more fun. I really hope to see our forum grown during the "off season." Honestly, I really enjoyed watching the atmospheric river(boy, is that every an overused term nowadays) hit Mammoth and places like that in California. I enjoyed tracking the extreme cold in December. And I don't think we are done tracking interesting stuff in our area.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Man, it is just hard to tell. LR modeling is all over the place. The 6z CFSv2 coming in that cold is a concern in that regard. The set-up for ice/snow in west TN is still there. However, it bounces around a lot. Time will tell if that run is a trend or a blip. However, the 6z GEFS, 0z CMC, and 6z CFSv2 are both centering a pretty cold shot around the 27th. They all still have the 22nd/23rd event. The real question I have is whether this cold pattern holds for a time. When this HB block hit, it looked transient on modeling...but eventually modeling held, and we went warm. Does that happen in reverse this time? Not sure, but there are some signs it could. The MJO this morning is very low amplitude as it transits the cold phases. Does it continue through 4-6 or does it cross the COD, and loop back. I do think we are seeing the Nino begin to have some influence right now. However, that SER showing up in the LR is also a textbook Nina characteristic. And I mentioned this earlier, wavelengths will begin to shorten-up, and that would likely dislodge any cold in the Mountain West and send it eastward. The biggest thing is that we are exiting the HB block pattern which bottled up the cold (in conjunction w/ a terrible Pacific). Short story: I am looking at two windows for snow. One is the 22nd-23rd. Another is around the 27th.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in the mountains during winter, and within ten days it snows. Check. That "saying" is probably more reliable than any weather model - truly.
  13. Carvers Gap
    One important note(and I have about 1/2" of snow in my yard this morning), is that the current MJO is in very low amplitude phase 8.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 has cooled significantly after the 23rd. Its overall look for February(monthly forecast which runs once per day at 0z) is much cooler than yesterday at 0z. As for the flopping around...again, I have to constantly remind myself that when cold air enters the pattern, it causes model chaos. We saw something very similar during early December. And again, the middle and western parts of our forum are favored in this set-up. However, as I noted w/ the EPS post above, eastern areas are also in the mix. Honestly, I think we will look back at this upslope event and see that the HB block pattern began to change at that point. Time will tell what the new pattern is.....
  15. Carvers Gap
    EPS around the 22nd.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The 0z EPS caved to the GEFS last night...only to have the GEFS leave it join the CMC camp shortly after the 23rd. The CMC hasn't budged. With models bouncing around, this tells me some extremely cold air is about to enter the pattern in the Lower 48. I am sure the strat warm stuff has modeling all over the place as well. To echo Holston, this is almost the same repeat as late November. Can kicking, strat stuff, and then we got 4-5 day of extreme cold. The 6z GEFS is actually very cold later in its run which is a huge change. It mirrors the CMC in the same way. Both have a very cold shot around 300. It seems modeling his having trouble w/ the low in the southwest and also which storm could deliver cold. Source regions are going to reload. All it will take is one cutter or one coastal to deliver a very cold shot. I think that is what modeling is trying to "figure out."
  17. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good thump here w/ a heavy snow shower.
  18. Carvers Gap
  19. Carvers Gap
    Snow showers here in western Sullivan Co.
  20. Carvers Gap
    That a split?
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS bringing out the cold hammer. Not sure what the GEFS is doing, but the GEPS and EPS would provide an excellent window for winter.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has a second storm behind that one in which the 500vort map looks quite potent. The 12z Euro seems to match ensembles and the MJO the closest FWIW. Now, back to the upslope event nearest you...........
  23. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good pass on the 22nd on both the Euro and GFS at 12z
  24. Carvers Gap
    The GFS this morning is on an island and is an outlier in the d1-16 range. It is either going to score a coup or miss badly. The CMC and Euro(along w/ ensembles) show a return to seasonal or BN beginning the 22nd/23rd. The pattern of the past three months looks to continue, but quicker cycles. The Jan 23rd to first or second week of Feb looks to be our window for winter storms this go around. Then the trough is almost universally forecast to retrograde into the northern Rockies which is no surprise there as that is classic Nina climatology. However, due to shortening wavelengths, we should see waves of cold push int eastern North America as the cold source regions will have been restored to winter type levels. If we really want fun and games, we need to pull for the CMC to be correct as it locks the trough over eastern NA w/ PV source regions. I don't totally discount the Canadian run as it has scored highly this winter at that range. At some point, however, the MJO plots should dictate a rotation through warmer phases down the road. For now, I would blend the Canadian and Euro suite(including ensembles), and go with that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    If Mt Leconte would donate a couple of inches of snow for MBY(from its 600 inches of predicted snow), that would be good.
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