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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    There are ingredients (just spitballing) for a multi-wave over-running event for somewhere in the forum area sometime between the 17th and Christmas. If the GEFS can be believed(huge IF), the over-running characteristic are readily apparent. The gradient sets east-west over the forum area, and then the GOM moisture runs along it. The CMC is suppressed, but it has been overdoing the cold of late. Chance are that gradient is north of where it has it. The ICON has that look. Somewhere between the great bend of the TN River in Alabama and the Ohio...there is a chance for a gradient winter storm.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Dec 17th has possibilities....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Decent snow means showing up on the ensembles(GEPS and GEFS) so far.
  4. Carvers Gap
    At minimum, an upslope NW flow event looks on tap for next weekend. I am definitely watching that slp pop just to our SE. Something to watch. Dare we say the pattern is almost in reach?
  5. Carvers Gap
    ICON and GFS at 12z have some fairly interesting solutions - meaning passes by low pressure to our south.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That was good discussion by you all. I haven't read that article yet. Normally, the GFS has had some predictable tendencies...too cold in the long range, too progressive with storms along the coast inside day 7, too quick to break down HL blocks. Once one factored all of that in, it was usable. What it is doing right now just doesn't seem usable - not predictable and erratic. I was almost wondering if it was handling the MJO regions poorly or just not getting SSTs correctly modeled(edit). I thought I someone note that the jet was being handled differently by it as well. It did get right the push back of the pattern change, so I hate to discount it completely. It is almost like it is overdoing the heat at the mid latitudes, and giving the jet too much strength as a result.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Normally rolling with whichever model is warmest is not a bad idea. Right now, I am not so certain that modeling is cold enough.
  8. Carvers Gap
    If the cold arrives this weekend, the GFS is already in “bust mode” as it, at one point, had several runs over the forum area never went below normal and was under a standing wave. The model is likely behind right now, and won’t catch up until the pattern changes. But I still cast a wary eye. Thus question is worth asking so that we ourselves don’t follow bad modeling off a cliff.....What exactly is the GFS handling poorly? Is it a bias? Is it right on some level when biases are accounted for? Or is it off-the-wall bad right now? One set of models is in for a fairly significant bust.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Been super busy for the past couple of days. If you haven't looked at today's ensembles, you should. No idea if right...but. The ensembles are close to the coldest that I have seen them in the d10-15. Pretty rare to see ten degrees below the average at that range on the EPS. The actual EPS at 12z was throwing at a big dog pattern. Looks like the first cold front is still moving forward in time around the 16th.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Afternoon ensembles were pretty much a beaut, Clark.
  11. Carvers Gap
    If I lived in northwest TN right now...I would be chomping at the bit. The pattern is loaded for bear from a line from Memphis to Nashville and northwest. I hope NE TN can get in on the action (not holding my breath). A classic Nina cold weather outbreak is set for the western half of the state IMHO. I am really interested to see if that line can press further SE.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Nina winters are huge for the northern Rockies in terms of snowfall. Water content in the snow can lack at times as it did last winter - lots of cold, fluffy snow and water content was low.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Well, I see the operationals have all "found" the block now. Suppression city. Now, I think we start to see systems attack the base of the block where we are. Very good adjustments today.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I relearn this lesson every winter. Models often go haywire right before and just as cold air shows up in the medium and long range in modeling. Guessing this is a Montana special(cold) that bleeds in an ever modified form...eastward. Winter chances increase as one goes westward(from the Apps) in this set-up.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro control is insanely cold over the Plains and Front Range. That is a fantastic set-up for those who live in western areas of the forum. The EPS supports that look(core of the cold in the western Plains) w/ the furtherest extent of the cold reaching the Atlantic. Remember the strat split a while back? Yep, that is where it normally dumps cold first in NA(if it goes to NA), and right on time 2-3 weeks after the event. Would be interesting if the background driver was a combination of SSW and Pac forcing(not the good kind). Anyway, the set-up depicted is very similar to the over-running event for Memphis a few years back.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Maybe the GFS is offering up an apology after an absolute cluster of a week. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The cold bias of the CFSv2 (as noted above) is almost always apparent. The 18z run today was especially good. The model does have some useful aspects at 500. Beginning of the run -> next ice age.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I can’t say that I like a 7-10 delay in a modeled wx pattern. One winter recently we waited all of Jan/Feb...for what turned out to be a cold front. The upcoming pattern change at mid latitudes is now set for the 16th. At one point it was the 11th. That said, there is decent model agreement this afternoon which is good. Is that consensus or just one common point on a grid as two ships pass in the night going opposite directions? We will know soon. I am optimistic but also a bit more cautious as the colder pattern has been sort of stuck around d10.
  19. Carvers Gap
    We are going to see a fairly epic model fail by either the GFS/GEFS or the CMC/GEPS/Euro/EPS in the medium and long range.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Captain didn't get back on the first goal, and his man scored as a result. Pretty much each USA goal was simply due to not marking their men. Plenty of chances for the US. Moment wasn't too big, but we need a finisher. Memphis......not just a city in TN.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies, if they are right, show Dec15-Jan5 as our best chance for winter. Is Cosgrove controlling the Euro Weeklies? -NAO retrogrades(?) to an EPO/PNA ridge. Eventually, the trough moves out West and doesn't budge. Looks like '89 without the cold temps from '89. It does have Christmas as cold. Nice pattern IF it will verify. One thing I hold onto is that -NAO patterns tend to resurface later in winter.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I don't think we will torch(till later in the winter). But it is definitely having trouble w/ the block IMHO. The Euro has this inside of d10 now, and it looks remarkably like what ensembles have had for a couple of weeks.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is what I think is a realistic pattern evolution for the next ten days given the block in place and potential for the Pacific to start lending a hand per John's post above. It is supported by the CMC and GEPS. For now....I am tossing all runs of the GFS (unless it verifies....LOL...but which run do we pick?).
  24. Carvers Gap
    I think a Euro/CMC blend is probably in order. The GFS is all over the place. I give it some credit as it was first to find that the pattern was not going to be favorable prior after the 15th, but man...I don't know if I have ever seen it this erratic. The Pacific is just not cooperating as well. The other explanation is that very cold air is about to enter the pattern in the d10-15. That could explain some things.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I saw that. I think that is good advice. I also think you are right that modeling was a bit too quick...
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