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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that the 6z GFS was quite cold for that run.
  2. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 6zGFS has another system late in its run as well. So, modeling is beginning to "see" the potential for winter weather.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro have good passes for the system on the 25th/26th - Miller A. The 0z Euro actually takes the low road for the system on the 22nd/23rd. Not sure that will verify, but that system is still on the table as well.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Sum of the 46d run of the Euro Weeklies....temps seasonal to BN(BN after the 23rd) and precip AN. We take that combo and run with it if it verifies.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Man, the Euro Weeklies control -NAO...wow.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are pretty awesome.
  7. Carvers Gap
    These are the 12z d10-15 global ensemble temp anomaly maps.
  8. Carvers Gap
    By mechanism, to clarify, I mean a -EPO. Also, there are echoes of a -NAO on many runs and ensemble runs from time to time. It is on the EPS control big time. If we manage a -EPO and -NAO, that is a nice winter couplet. Honestly, that is the kind of couplet where we would be ready for spring after that matures.
  9. Carvers Gap
    There is a fine line between cutters to St Louis, and cold that strong going all the way to Cuba. Those are cold ensembles. The mechanism is there to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the pattern is honking for that kind of setup.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And that isn't the colder model in that timeframe..............
  12. Carvers Gap
    For kicks and giggles....this is where it heads to about 100 hours after the map above. It is colder here prior to this snapshot. I just wanted to show this as North America is just frigid in this run. Impressive for a model which has been known for a slight warm bias in this range.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is really a great run. This is my favorite.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @John1122The Euro control has your favorite storm track. Cutter, cutter, snow along the GC. In all seriousness, that is how cold the control was.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the 12z EPS: The best look is the system on the 26th which follows. The 12z EPS definitely leave room to the NW to trend for the 22nd/23rd. I really want to see how this trends as modeling is able to sort through the depth and intensity of the incoming cold air mass. The lion's share of the cold appears to be coming after the 26th. I would expect a storm to rid that incoming boundary.
  16. Carvers Gap
    It might be a tic northwest on second look, but was basically the same run as 0z. Of interest, it does have a mean slp over New Orleans on the 22nd. Get a low placement there, and someone in the forum area is getting frozen precip, even if it comes on NNE track
  17. Carvers Gap
    Digging a little deeper, I am not sure how the mean is that far SE on the EPS as there are plenty of cutters for slp placement. However, the mean is further SE than 0z. But really the EPS is a great looking run in terms of multiple storms and a great track.
  18. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the ensemble mean on the 12z EPS is not a cutter. In fact, it is so suppressed, it would rob most of the valley of any moisture at all. Good spot.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, there is part of me that hopes we have enough SER so my pipes don't bust. If that EPO is that strong, it is going to send some super cold air southward. Man, this really reminds me of the Memphis ice storm - I know I keep saying it, but looks like 2.0.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling is just now sensing the cold. The last run, suppression was the issue. This run it is cutters. Right now, we just have to wait and see where that boundary sets up. You can really see modeling(even the Euro), with two different pieces of energy(for the same system) on the operational. One cuts, the other goes down low. A couple of days ago, the GFS didn't even have it cold. I think ensembles and operationals are just now getting this in their wheelhouse. I will roll the dice and take my chances with this upcoming pattern.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Agree. And no way modeling has those details worked out right now. Big storms. Big cold. I think the primary track is through the TN valley. I think another (low road) track will also exist - probably second or third storm. I will try to dig through the ensembles in a few. With that much cold around(and that Alaskan block), a lot is on the table if the timing is right.
  22. Carvers Gap
    No doubt. This is gonna be the EPO's show(or Alaskan block) fairly soon I think. The delivery mechanism to send the PV southward is there.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Incredibly cold 12z operational GFS run. When you see it, w/ a warm bias, flip cold...time to take notice.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Medium and LR ensembles for the GEFS and GEPS looks outstanding. If we don't score w/ the first storm Sun/Mon, the one after is also a legit threat. The EPS is cutting through middle TN. That should set the boundary for the second storm. We will know in a few.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is a great setup. Storm one sets the boundary, and storm two rides it. No idea if that is going to be the outcome, but it is nice to see some chances showing up on modeling. It sure beats multiple shades of red.
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