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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Man, if we could get that to connect w/ some cold...........................
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sounds about right or just prior. Modeling is showing the second week in January switching to a decent PNA. If one accounts for modeling kicking the can, mid-month would be about right. If no can kicking, I might guess something in the 7th-10th range...and us actually beginning to track that system around the New Year. The end of the 18z GEFS is beginning the transition to an eastern trough. The operational flirted with that occurring much sooner. It really depends on which model is handling the MJO the best. The GEFS EXT this evening had a similar transition but maybe 2-3 days later.
  3. Carvers Gap
    If we had 5-6" of snow on the ground w/ this air mass, we would make a run at the all time record low.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And not to overkill one run of the LR GFS, but that is split flow under that PNA ridge to boot.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It cuts off a low in the southwest or the flip to colder would happen much quicker IMO. Looks like the date(multiple models and not just the GFS) for the next cold pattern begins around Jan5th(slightly early if that cutoff kicks out of the Four Corners a bit quicker).
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS, at range FWIW, is popping a massive PNA ridge after d10.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Digging through this afternoon's teleconnections, it does looks like the Pacific will drive the next cold/cool shot maybe around Jan5th. Then, another warm interlude, then the -NAO takes a swing after that.
  8. Carvers Gap
    @Wurbus, if that map below isn't worthy of a thread....I don't know what is.
  9. Carvers Gap
    It is possible we could get downsloped west of 75 and 81. It happens with big coastal storms but the opposite side of the valley. I would be really surprised if anything slowed this front down. I have been monitoring web cams on the front range today. Even the folks in those areas are impressed.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Can anyone tell if there would be lightning w those bands just east of Nashville on the GFS 18z?
  11. Carvers Gap
    Just eyeballing, the Happy Hour run of the GFS looks a bit more robust mid-state.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Wow, that is a big analog. It does look like a reloading pattern. The 12z CFSv2 has that. I really like 10-11 as my analog. If I had a wishful analog....raindance would be it. I was thinking today that maybe this wasn't our only bout of sever cold this winter w/ so much HL blocking showing up. Many forget that some of these really cold winters had very warm interludes.
  13. Carvers Gap
    If many get an inch or two of snow.....you get them both. Honestly, with as wild as this is about to get(tropical storm force winds and sharp temp drop)....the thread will deliver.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro trended south. Nice hit from the Plateau westward and north of I-40.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Sheridan, WY...I am noticing many roads in Wyoming are getting closed as we speak.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has the clipper after the front this weekend.
  17. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler @jaxjagman I though this was pretty interesting.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I always forget to look at the SOI. Let us know when the thing drops, especially if sharply...big storm signal if so.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Good point. Yeah, this is tropical storm force winds followed by bitterly cold temps.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Kind of sneaky, but ZR is now showing up for tomorrow AM in eastern Sullivan, Unicoi, eastern Washington, and Johnson counties of TN. SW VA also has some showing up as well. It isn't anything huge, but might be a pain in the you know what to drive on ~0.03 to 0.1. edit: W NC is also showing this and probably has the highest likelihood of problems.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Here is another page from that site. I really hope that data is made a pay site. Easily is my top historical site for climate data. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/correlation/long.html
  22. Carvers Gap
    The reanalysis page which I use has this message: Default climatology has been changed to 1991-2020 That site might be a good place to start as you can toggle the base period norms: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  23. Carvers Gap
    10-11 was a great winter. This winter is so far running quite parallel to that one.
  24. Carvers Gap
    '14-15 is the snowiest I have ever seen my area of the TRI - and that includes some great winters of the 80s and 90s. From mid January to the end of February it just snowed and snowed. There were school systems with had 10+ days banked which ran out of days, and these weren't systems which just called out at the drop of a hat. I think that is one winter where my area was actually snowier than John's.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Larry Cosgrove has had a pretty hot hand of late...These are his recent comments. He is a great follow on social media. Over the past five days, the various numerical forecast models have gone crazy with predictions of warming across the entire continent. I follow the more conservative GGEM ensemble run, since that is the only series that acknowledges the possible impact of a major storm undercutting a ridge in Nunavut AR. If you accept the idea of the January Thaw coming early, then a harsh winter weather pattern will return in the middle of next month.
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