Carvers Gap

Amen to that. There is a crap ton of energy w/ that front. It has to go somewhere.

Rarely all or nothing. I think I have been incredibly clear that I think this is a cutter. I have also learned to never say never. That said, I have been burned by this set-up more times than I can count. That slp out front certainly matters if it continues to increase in strength. The big problem right now is spacing. I think we see snow showers at the least w/ the second system and possible some valley ice w/ the first system, especially in southwest Virginia. With it being so cold for the second system, the mountains could score some light amounts in the east and even the valleys. This entire tracking experience is a good reminder that when tracking a storm from seven days out....we have to survive 28 model runs to get to fruition. I doubt this is done changing even at this point. I strongly suspect there will be one final system that rotates in after the big storm. Cold shots often have clippers that follow. If this changes, the change I would suspect is that we see more precip along the front and cold rushing in along that similar to a couple of Christmases ago. Any lee side slp(not the frontrunner I am speaking of) that forms along the front has to be watched. Those lee side lows can amp systems sometimes. I am not saying that is a certainty. I am saying that front is incredibly strong. I would be surprised not to see some flakes in the air IMBY.

Yeah, it's complicated for sure. In my years of tracking weather the engine/caboose setup is probably the most difficult for modeling to handle. A few days ago, modeling was trying to pop a Miller A. Then modeling began to emphasize the western cutter. We are right about where modeling rediscovers storms. I think the cutter is most likely, but I am not convinced there aren't some surprises embedded.

The other thing to note is the jet streak raging over the TN valley immediately after the low. Let's see if something rides that after the big storm.

LOL. I wouldn't say I am pulled back in. But the Euro cranking that front runner gives me pause. It wasn't there earlier. Most modeling has that to some extent. Even the GEFS at 12z has that. If that front runner speeds up or slows down in the least....the solution is amended.

I think our chances are waining...but no way modeling has this all nailed down. The front runner was much stronger on this run. As Tellico noted yesterday evening, I wouldn't be shocked that some sort of transfer of energy is occurring. The primary pushes into the Midwest while a secondary forms along the coast. I don't think this is sorted out yet.

At 120, a slp pressure develops in the upper Gulf states and then slides along the lee side of the Apps. That'll do the trick if real.

Don't look now but here comes another somewhat different look by the Euro.....stay tuned.

Muddled picture persists as most modeling now have a fairly decent front running slp. What needs to be watched is whether modeling beginning to strengthen the front runner. If that happens, all bets are off on the synoptics of this. I think a cutter is likely, but that front-running low(engine and caboose) pattern has wrecked havoc on model solutions in the past.

It likely would melt before the second system arrives. This is the front runner system. Again, I can't find it on any other modeling.

LR Update: Looks like we see a warm-up from Dec28-10th. The EPS led the way w/ this by sniffing out the Pacific flooding the continent w/ maritime air. We "may" still have a trough in the SE, but that is not for certain, and source regions are certainly suspect on modeling. Is this a pattern change or just a temporary relaxation? TBD. We need to see if the can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to cold. I "think" cold returns fairly quickly, but I could certainly see a scenario where cold returning taking a lot of patience. Normal temps get the job done here in January. Lots of fluidity in the pattern to start January.

The CMC is showing ice on the 22nd for the eastern valley. I don't see that on other modeling, but something to watch. That set-up is one way to get it. When rain approaches from the SE, there is air pushed down the west slopes of the Apps(warming those slopes due to compressed air...downsloping), the cold gets pushed in the deepest parts of the TN valley and west slopes of the Plateau....and ZR. I don't think it is overly likely as the thermal profile on the CMC is colder. Time of day is important.

Perfect. The GFS is scoring decently at d7. It was terrible a few weeks ago, has now cleaned up its act.

My dad was hauling a load from St Louis and barely made it back to TRI. He called us and said he was running the leading edge of it. He pulled in the driveway, and the hammer dropped. Has to be that one. That is a great example of how this "could" work. The 18z is how I would have imagined that would look.

I am probably picking apart a single run a bit too much as we are still 5-6 days out. That said, you all can see that most of the lows are in line w/ the current track or eastward. Notice that cluster off the coast of Georgia? It looks to me like the trend would be eastward IF that run was correct......

Just settling in for a brief respite before heading back out....the 27th on the CMC/Euro is pretty close to another storm.

Last post for a bit. That was a hop, skip, and a jump from being a Miller A. It looks like the southern extent of the spine of the Apps split the slp. Some of it lifted into E TN. Some of it skirted into the Piedmont. I think modeling(ICON to some extent) is not handling the front runner slp well.

And whoever wanted the HOT! thread...you got it now.

Not sure if anyone has followed the run after the main event. There are several sneaky short waves which follow. Those won't be modeled well until 24-48 house prior to the event w/ short range modeling. With so much cold in place, those systems could easily drop 1-2" at a pop. This winter reminds me more and more of 10-11.

@Wurbus, there you go.

Yeah, that is plausible for sure. Also, the cold which will ensue after the precip on that run is gonna push -10F over northern parts of middle/west TN.

Just digging into that run....that is a pretty extreme run for this time of year. Something to watch, the GFS is sliding a slp up the coast ahead of the system. Does it eventually jump on that coastal? Maybe. I have seen that happen before. To backtrack from earlier, I give the GFS the edge right now as it seems to be handling the long range a hair better as well. The track is not a Miller A which is a win for the Euro, but the Euro looks far too tame considering the strength of the front.

More than a warm nose. The SLP tracks right through E TN. It did shift slightly eastward. Let's see what the trends hold. Still six days out. Lots of changes still to come I think. I wonder if modeling is about to "find" the storm again. We are about to exit the window where storms are lost.

I probably should clarify. The GFS is basically a toned down Euro track - that is the cave. I don't buy the lack of precip on the Euro. As John noted, if this becomes an extreme event...the GFS may actually take the lead at this point.