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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I am beginning to wonder if the GFS operational is even usable right now. It is either going to score a coup within its own suite(GEFS doesn't agree with it nor does any other global or ensemble that I can find), or it is an outlier which isn't really consistent. I may move forward with a Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS blend. Has the GFS been updated already?
  2. Carvers Gap
    One storm....just for kicks and giggles.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yes, yes it was!!!!!
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just for sharing and no comment on my part. Will these looks hold? I want to see a day or two more of consistency before getting too carried away on my part. The highlights of the 12z suite of global models... @*Flash* An old saying on AmWx(and its predecessor), when we are talking about the MJO the patten is usually not good. True point on your part.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro follows the CMC lead w/ potential for a wave riding the cold front in the day 9-10 range. Take w/ a huge grain, but the GFS sort of had it as well. With the potential for so much cold to be moving into the east, it makes sense for a wave to ride one or more of those cold fronts.
  6. Carvers Gap
    This is the third straight set of runs where winter weather and very cold temps are showing up on modeling.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The Canadian has snow falling w/ temps in the single digits on the Plateau.
  8. Carvers Gap
    As a matter of fact, there are multiple threats to follow.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a storm to track per the 12z CMC and GFS.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Digging through modeling this morning, there are some "much below normal" solutions showing up between Dec 15-20th across all global models. The 0z Euro control has this as does the 6zCFSv2(20-25 degree departures from normal over TN, and also the 0z GFS. The 0z GEPS is not warm either. I am NOT saying that is going to happen. However, many of us have seen the extreme blocking and have been curious as to why some colder solutions have not surfaced. Now let's see if we can get those inside of d10.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I hesitated to even look at modeling this morning after Friday night. Things look on track for the first cold front to arrive maybe a week from tomorrow.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I’d think the near record -NAO in combination with a terrible MJO(IO influence) is not something most modern models have ever had to contend with during a third year Niña. There might be 2-3 analogs at best.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS holds. I won't say, "Game on," but if I can see 3-4 more operational runs/ensembles....After some shaky overnight runs, much improved 12z suite. Will it hold?
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro follows suite (operationals finally showing what ensembles have shown). If the 12z EPS holds, this train may have somehow gotten back on the tracks.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Pretty interesting. So a standing wave (monster SER) has been a characteristic of recent GFS runs(not this one). The 12z has a system slide across the MidWest on the 12th, and it (and the subsequent system) just destroys the SER. Good call by @Daniel Booneabove. That is the golden ticket. If the SER establishes, we are pretty much screwed. The 12z GFS really shows the NAO block flex. I am not buying that run quite yet, but FINALLY the actual operational matches the previous ensembles.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Whoa. Mercy me, what a flip from the 12z GFS. Now, that is understandable at this range...but that is a nearly complete reversal from d8-16. If we get cold, send me a Christmas card for the from earlier this morning. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    1. We definitely need help from the Pacific. There have been runs which show the EPO/PNA ridge building. For you all in middle and west TN, the western ridge is money. In E TN, the NAO or HB block (especially in conjunction w/ a falling QBO and weak Nino) is a better result. The EPO/PNA ridge during Ninas is often too far west(for E TN) which leaves E TN in the warm sector. So, kind of depends on where one lives. But for now, we definitely need help from the Pacific. We "should" catch some brief cycles into phases 7-8 and let that ridge out West build. A -PNA is not good for any of us east of the MS. 2. Again, watching the 12z GFS flip-flop yet again.....I am not sure modeling is handling the NAO block well. The 12z GFS has again flipped to a much colder run. 3. As for E TN winters, NE TN has not had great winters during the past several years, especially once December is over. Nina winters favor E TN during December and middle/western areas are favored as winter progresses into Jan/Feb. Middle and west TN have scored big due to the Nina pattern, even Knoxville. The eastern mountains and NE TN have drawn the short straw. That is cool though, the pendulum will swing back. This Nina cycle has been greatly needed in order to reset the gradient so that El Nino's actually have a normal effect.
  18. Carvers Gap
    What essentially is occurring is a standing wave(SE ridge on steroids ad nauseam). The ensembles do have us cooling back to normal by the 15th, but I am not sure how believable the LR is after this likely bust. Could it flip back? Sure. At this point I think we have seen another strat warm which was handled poorly by modeling. During future strat warms...we will look for a similar bias(cold in LR which doesn’t verify). For now, much above normal temps for the first half of Dec look likely.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I think we are looking at a pretty big bust regarding east coast temps. Where modeling was originally looking at the 12-13th for cold...it is now pushed way back. The only cold is way out there if it is there at all (6s GFS is void of cold in our half of the nation). It is possible we will still see some cold after the 15th, for now the cold was just a mirage. Could it be delayed? Sure, But we need the Pacific to throw us a bone, or the cold is headed there. The tough part about this is Dec is often the colder month of La Nina’s(not always but often). The NAO may well just be too early. An NAO during late spring and summer can cause very warm temps.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I feel like we are just about able to nail down the onset of seasonably cold air by mid-December's standards anyway. Looks to me like it will be here around December 12th, give our take 24 hours. Most operationals(not the CMC), and all major global ensembles seem to have this as at the start date. I was reading @WxUSAF's comments in the MA forum about how the high latitude bridge will potentially fail to capture a portion of the TPV. IMHO, that will cause our source region to be continental Canadian air masses. That's not too shabby(to quote Sandler), but it ain't TPV vodka cold. As noted earlier, the Pacifica (PNA, EPO) is so hostile that it will take a near record -NAO just to balance the sheet slightly BN in terms of temps. What happens after the NAO decays will be the topic of much debate. Does the EPO reform? I think it might, but there are also analogs where the cold goes west and doesn't come back for months. For the time being, I think we get BN temps beginning around the 13th and hold that for a couple of weeks at least. Honestly, as John noted, winter is really just showing up on time.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS operational at 500 looks(for now!) like what one would imagine a -NAO block would look.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS and 12z EPS are singing the same song so to speak. Now, we need to reel the pattern inside of d10. Good looks on the ensembles, and now we need to see the operationals get on board by Sunday or Monday.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Fairly significant changes to the 6z GEFS right after 240. It has lost the ridge over the East when compared to 0z. A trough is now in place. We will see how the rest of the run looks here in a minute. Good sign.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The global ensembles continue to advertise a fairly significant pattern change between the 11-12th of this month. We are gonna be fighting a terrible Pacific set-up which is going to influence the pattern. If it is going to take a record -NAO to provide balance, we have a good idea of what is coming when the NAO breaks down. Unless the Pacific flips to the -EPO after the NA0 degrades, a very hostile Pacific will run the pattern. As many have noted, there is some '89-90 in this pattern. With the warm start to projected for the month, '89 looks less of a match with each passing day. 2010-2011 looks like a decent match for December. Back to the pattern change. It remains to be seen just how cold this pattern will get. For now, seasonably below normal once the pattern changes seems about right. The opportunity to go much below normal is there. Right now, it looks like the cold goes west and then slides east, which oddly, is very similar to what we have seen after nearly every strat warm of the past few winters....
  25. Carvers Gap
    The EPS still give us plenty of hope, but the GEFS seems to be leading the way right now. That said, in the fifteen years we have lived in this house, this is the first time I have seen the leaves off the trees this early. Completely stripped bare are most of them. I would guess Mother Nature knows something.
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