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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS and seasonal CFS2(last run before December hits) is progressively cold with each passing week.
  2. Carvers Gap
    For better or worse, I have been riding with ensembles of late. I think you all are going to see some upslope at the very least.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Understandably, I don't think modeling(especially operationals) are handling the near record block which is forming.
  4. Carvers Gap
    That is giving me great pause. LOL. I don't think they will but the GFS is trying to do this about half the time.
  5. Carvers Gap
    If we can steal some of January as cold, that is a victory. Probably allows for a thaw mid-month...and then we wait and see if Nina weakens enough to allow winter to come back. It didn't come back in 10-11. it didn't come back in 89-90. But it did come back in 95-96. and maybe 09-10?
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS moved back towards the EPS/GEPS solutions(getting the ridge out of the East in the LR). I still think the we are looking at 10-14 days before the cold really begins to push southward. If we can reel it in, some of us should have some chances at winter weather.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, 6zGFS operational(can't see the ensemble quite yet)....look fairly textbook w/ the block east of the MS. Concern remains that the NAO could connect temporarily w/ the SE ridge, but if it does, I think that is very temporary. Right now, I want to see if modeling can hit a double....-NAO followed by and EPO/PNA ridge.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Gonna be close to paying off! LOL
  9. Carvers Gap
    To quote the announcer....the USA match has taken years off our lives. What a win. Pulisic was a warrior. Got the goal and is headed to the hospital after that winning goal.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks really good.
  11. Carvers Gap
    OTH, if the 6z CFSv2 is correct, we will all be crying uncle about mid January. That run flips from a massive -NAO to a massive EPO/PNA ridge. If I could draw-up a winter pattern, that would be it.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Not saying that is going to happen, but that is a complete reversal by the 12z GFS at the mid latitudes - complete. I don't think that verifies as the GFS is simply producing flavor-of-the-month runs every run. BUT, we have seen more than one strat split/SSW cause chaos in modeling.
  13. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, had this the other day. The 6zGFS continues to advertise a family significant "split" of the SPV 50mb and above. I noticed this, because the EPS Control briefly hooked the NAO into an eastern ridge. In the past, when I have seen this...that is a precursor to a split or at least significant jostling of the higher latitude pattern. With an early season block and SPV split underway(at the very least warming in the strat), modeling is going to struggle as evidenced by the wild model outcome of the 18z GFS yesterday. For now, the pattern looks relatively dry. That said, model mayhem is likely well underway. As a note of caution, recent SSWs/SPV splits have wrecked what looked like a good pattern on modeling in the long range. Now, in reality nothing was wrecked at all as that was what was going to happen regardless. I will say the SPV split/SSW looks to invoke a nearly immediate response at our latitude(sometimes we have to wait 2-3 weeks). That said, the worst of the cold may not arrive unit mid-month or just after. The actual pattern change which initiates an east based NAO begins in about 96 hours. That block will then retrograde in the 7-10 days which follow. So, the actual HL shuffle is within the 5 day window. It is the dominoes which fall due to this reshuffle which have to be ironed out.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Reminds me of this set-up from 2004.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I think w/ potential record AN heights in the area of Greenland....good luck to all models and may the odds be ever in their favor. It's Hunger Games time for modeling.
  16. Carvers Gap
    This has some elements of '89 in the pattern. As the NAO breaks down, we need the Pacific to jump right in like 10-11...
  17. Carvers Gap
    The Apps blizzard of '22 came from Nova Scotia.
  18. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Glad I wasn't the only one. That might be the most screwed up GFS run I have ever seen! I had to loop it backwards to make it look right. I am sure it will verify as it is messed-up(like on drugs).
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS supports the operational. Looks like it is going to be cold. Main concern is that we are currently experiencing drought conditions. That means timing of systems(re: snow storms) will be exceptionally important.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is still advertising a significant period of cold. The block is impressive. We will see how source regions set-up in terms of the severity of cold.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I was looking back at some of MRX's climatology. I have my doubts if it doubles down colder after December, but 10-11 was definitely front loaded Dec/Jan. It is a great fit for the currently ascending QBO.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I was reading the MA forum earlier. They were talking about '10-11 as a possible analog. I looked at 83-83, 89-90, 95-96, 20-21...no match. JB and/or others have mentioned those. But take a look at this.
  23. Carvers Gap
    -NAO anyone?
  24. Carvers Gap
    As noted in the Fall thread, take with a grain of salt as this is in the 10-15 day range. EPS is a hair slower. Overall, Atlantic blocking likes to hang around once established. Winters of late have tended to buck some of the analog packages.
  25. Carvers Gap
    High latitude blocking galore. Please see comments in the Fall thread.
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