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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in TRI.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That is an old-school set-up right there. SLP forms to our SE and cold crashed into the backside of the storm.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Nope. It ended up getting its act together!
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks like a rainer as the high is much weaker over the top. Still in the game, but a different look for sure.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Grabbed this from the MA forum. A poster there has the 12z UKMET at 168. Anyone have a snow map for that range? Pivotal only goes to 144. Pretty much a perfect track for the eastern valley.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Right now, the cold just ridiculous for late February. Fortunately, I don't have anything but onions and garlic in the garden. The wild thing is the GFS had a decent pattern after that as well. The EPS has been kind of showing positively tilted trough with really cold air behind it. Probably a better look for the Ohio River Valley, but wouldn't take much to make March crazy.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and GFS are showing single digits for Sunday into Tuesday for overnight lows. This might be the coldest air mass of the season for the eastern third of the forum area.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is a little to southeast and we want it right there given trends!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Brutally cold air(relative to norms) showing up on several models for the 27-28th.
  10. Carvers Gap
    If the 12z GFS is to be believed, there is a big Arctic high trailing this system. This may well be a another case where the GFS nailed this from very long range, lost it, and got it back.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I missed it, but the 0z ICON had it as well. Looks like it is a close call for the I-81 corridor in the eastern valley, and I40(north) across the entire state...if modeling is even close to correct. Looks like the trend is northward. So, this could end-up in Columbus, Ohio, before the trends are over...but the hp to the north should help.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS now has the winter storm at 144.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Modeling sort brought back the system around the 27-28th timeframe. The Euro has it, and to a lesser extent, the CMC has it. The 6z GFS flirted with it. Just something to keep an eye on.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I should note that the control is just the one storm. I posted the entire run, but the only snow is the one storm for the most part.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The control FTW? Also, the EPS has the event.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Here is the Euro Kuchera
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, a fairly nice signal showing up.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Any of our posters in Sevier Co have to deal with that fire this evening? I am assuming the rain is going to end that event thankfully! https://www.wvlt.tv/2022/02/18/evacuation-ordered-due-fast-moving-brush-fire-pigeon-forge/
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the wind will be still here and then it shakes the house. We have had some huge gusts today. Looks like the airport had a gust up to 38mph today. I would guess the ones IMBY were strong. You could hear the wind whistling through the cracks in our window(and they are updated window). I have never heard wind forcing into our windows like that. 18z GFS has the storm for western TN again...creeping eastward ever so slightly.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, the 12z CMC shows super frozen set-up. With the firehose on....the cold is going to cause problems if it gets southeast far enough.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS feels like Memphis hasn’t had enough ice for this season!
  22. Carvers Gap
    We have very cold air about to interact with the firehose. I don't claim to know where this interaction will occur over the East, but it looks like that likelihood is growing.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC(beware....WxBell has not updated...use TT) has the overrunning event and the 6z GFS pretty much has it but with less frozen precip. I think the setup is there late next week on modeling again this morning. It just doesn't have the great looking clown maps. But the set-up is there. The Euro is not on board at this time. It has a couple of shots of precip into the eastern Plains and that is it. The GFS and CMC push the cold further SE.
  24. Carvers Gap
    TRI's snowfall data is completely and totally corrupted.
  25. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountains (TIMS) mode was alive and breathing at 12z. LOL!!! Seriously, what an uncanny rule of thumb.
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