Carvers Gap

Modeling doubling down that cooler than normal temps return for April after this current warm-up, and then one additional warm-up which will follow the next cool down.

I mowed the yard for the first time today where it actually needed it. I did some clean-up during late Feb where I mowed it in order to get up leaves and twigs after the big winds. I still have some dormant areas in the yard. Hollies are still dropping leaves due to December cold. My patio peach lost its blooms as did some of my blueberries(unfortunately) due to the recent cold wave. Yards should be ready to take-off now(if they haven't already). I need about 4-6 weeks of warm temps in order for the garden to be ready. Still looking at a very late planting for it.

Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps. TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN. We had one day which was ~18F BN. I welcome the warmth of the next few days. I need to get some garden/yard work done. It is time for spring! Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up. Modeling has been stellar. The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.

If they have a normal summer, the ski slopes may not lose their snow.

I think I mentioned that earlier in an post, I certainly would think so by Friday afternoon even. Record highs possible tomorrow and Friday. Pretty amazing to see the first week’s(of March) departures erased though. I am placing the above departures in the thread for future reference. Models have done exceptionally well so far. They nailed the cold shot, and they also had a decent signal for the warm weather coming up. Yesterday was also BN as well which is not reflected on the chart above.

TRI so far for the month.

Minus 1-2 more cold shots, I think we can finally see spring revealing itself in both the MJO and some LR modeling. The CPC is going warm for April, and I welcome the change! The 6-8 day and 8-14 day forecasts are now warm on the CPC sites. I think we still see some sharp downturns, and I am not quite as bullish on the warmth....but it has to warm-up at some point, right? Bring on spring...because summer lurks right around that corner. Spring may be short this year!

They can just use spy balloon data as backup.

Euro Weeklies Update: Nice warm-up later this month. Looks like another cool down right after the first of April...well, meaning it might get downright cold. Again, this is the pits for trying to grow in the garden. First week of May is frost free here....I bet we get frosts well into May w/ this crazy pattern.

Well. So basically those averages should be three degrees lower than what they are reporting?

I read where Mt Leconte dropped to 1 degree F.

TRI's official temp average (so far) for March is 58.1. February had an average of 59.1. For now, we are a full degree below Feb's average. Yesterday was a whopping 18 degrees below normal. Our high was 38 degrees. The warmth later this month should pull the average above February's. Whether it stays there w/ one more wave of cold is questionable. The GFS is hinting at yet another significant shot of cold air right at the end of the March. I have yet to start my tomatoes. No way they will go in the ground by late April. I don't think I will be able to plant until mid-late May due to low soil temps. That is a full 2-3 weeks late for me.

After today, March's average temp will likely be colder than February's. It won't likely last, but that is pretty cool(literally).

I had to double check the thermometer this morning when I went out to run. It looked warm from inside the house. It was not, however, warm outside. I was about to freeze. I had no idea it was that cold. Wind chills at TRI are 19. Crossville and Wise have wind chills in the single digits. It is snowing in the mountains.

Clinch Mountain, just south of Gate City, still has snow on the south facing slopes. Crazy. It is not warm today. That is for sure. The Euro Weeklies show a nice warm-up followed by more cold...then a back-and-forth pattern of ridge/trough ensues. I don't think we have seen the last of winter cold...but we are close to shutting the door on it. If you like warm springs, the MJO has not been our friend.

Ha! Ha! The center of that bubble is over my house! I had a couple of inches of snow this winter. I won’t miss the pattern of the last three winters - especially the Jan and Feb part!

Indeed the average temp for March is only 0.4 higher than the totality of Feb so far. Today may well bring us below Feb's average at TRI. I can't remember who asked that, but there you go.

So far, the last 5 days have yielded -7.34F BN at TRI. The past two days have been roughly -13F BN. We had one day where we didn't make it out of the 30s for max temps. Lowest temp during this time frame was 20F. A trace of snow has been recorded at the airport. I had a trace of frozen precip at my place during two of those days. Modeling has been exceptional with this time frame. The mountains above 5,000' are snow capped in NE TN. The freeze from the past two nights has damaged blooming plants for sure. Lots of brown buds on pear and peach trees unfortunately. As for the LR forecast, more cold through the 25th. Then, I think we see some moderation towards the very end of this month and early April. After that, the MJO is showing signs of looping back into colder phases after its tour through the colder phases ends(skipping warmer phases). The warm-up later this month should correspond to the loop into the COD and maybe some brief time in 7 before potentially looping back into 8. El Nino springs are a bear. I wouldn't be surprised for the mountains to get more snow and for the NE areas of the forum to see more snow showers at some point. As for next weeks system, just isn't organized on modeling and that has been a clear trend. Let's see if modeling gets it back today or overnight. The GFS was a bit more organized(but slightly off the coast ) at 6z...but it might be over-amped. Otherwise, probably time to bid farewell to that long shot.

@Holston_River_Rambler, two on loop 5!

4400’ elevation gain...oof!

Yeah, I have been following Keith today. Looks like a “big” bunch made it to lap 4. Fun run complete, and now it gets down to business. Haven’t had a finisher during the last few years. And yeah, the jaw is thorn city. Not for me.

@Holston_River_Rambler, you kick around in Frozen Head. How tough is that course?

Yeah, I can’t decide if we want it flat or not. The GFS at 0z was a strong coastal. 6z was flat. The trend overnight has been generally weaker with the exception of the 0z GFS run. We have seen those storms do exactly that at this range...and a three run trends takes it to St Louis regardless of blocking. Looks to me like a hp is suppressing the track. We do prob want to see it bounce back by tomorrow morning.

Barkley Marathon is under way. Man, that was a cold night for those runners!!!!

Jan/Feb were base warm patterns with cold fronts which rolled through - notably the ice storm. Current pattern appears to be base cold w/ warm-ups in between. Just looking at LR modeling....looks like wave after wave of cold. If we get lucky, the MJO will rotate into warm phases by April(before coming around again into cold phases) and give us a respite. Have I said how much I really don't like cold during April? I have my limits as to when I like it freezing cold...April is pushing those limits.