Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Keep an eye on what comes after the big cutter in the Plains. Thunder here...and you know what might come next. TIMS models activation may be in order. Modeling is showing a system to our SE(low road) right after that cutter. The northwest trend is the real deal during late Feb.
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Time to get this thread started...and yes, spring is FINALLY on modeling after the 20th. Onions are in the ground. We have about 170 planted - combo of two varieties of yellow(Vidalia variety) and one batch of red. We use a hoop house and cold frames. We used all of our onions from last year's garden. We have learned to dry and store them. Garlic from December is looking good. It was planted late due to a late delivery(labor shortage on the supplier end of things). Lettuce seedlings are up along with broccoli, chard, and cauliflower. Interestingly, I got a bad batch of lettuce seeds this year - I think or it was just user error! The were packaged for 2020 and then relabelled for 2022. Lettuce seeds don't keep as long which explains the 2% germination rate which I got first go around. Sadly, the bad seed was from a reputable supplier. I reordered from another supplier, and had about 98% germination rates by day 2 or 3. With grocery prices sky high, I might actually be able to compete with store prices this year. Though I doubt it, American farmers grow food in plentiful amounts and cheaply! It is truly amazing to walk into a grocery store.
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Man, the ground here is barely unfrozen. I still see ice on small creeks where I run. The ground is not warm at TRI..maybe extreme south facing slopes, but otherwise, the ground is super cold.
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12z Euro 500 configuration is way different. LOL. On to the next suite...consensus denied.
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Looks like the Euro may swing and miss. Trough is too positively tilted. Let's see if something still pops.
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The northern stream is quicker and southern stream slower at 63
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And the 12z Euro is rolling...
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It is an odd, double barrel low set-up. Honestly, it has been a while since we have seen that set-up east of the mountains. The lee side low is a good set-up in and of itself. The energy transfer to the coast could cause the snow to go poof over E TN or it could accentuate it depending on where it fires. I will tag @John1122who will know the answer to the question most likely. I would have to dig back through the threads. I usually just make a mental note that double barrel lows are infamous and notorious regarding modeling being able to accurate depict them. Seems like I remember one where the lee side low was weak and we didn't get anything, and maybe one where the lee side low trended into an inland runner.
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This is a super similar set-up to how middle and west TN have scored...just displace the primary east of the Apps(instead of the eastern valley and secondary to the coast(instead of western NC). The really headache is accounting for two mountain ranges(the Plateau and Apps) being under the western precip shield instead of just the Plateau. The 12z set-up could be a combo of orographic lift and downsloping, one replacing the other depending on location. Fun times. LOL.
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Looks like the lee side is a realistic solution. We need it to fire to our SE vs directly to our east.
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The 12z ICON has the same set-up but weaker. So, that is the ICON, CMC, and GFS at 12z which have a similar setup and the RGEM looks like it would have gotten there as well. Time to watch trends at this point.
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The 12z CMC now has a similar set-up with an RGEM-esque look. It has less over E TN, as the inland feature fires a bit late. That said, pretty much the same synoptic set-up as at the GFS which makes both solutions a bit more believable. We do have to take into account the GFS amping things a bit too much.
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If you live in E TN, you want the flow to back as the front passes. You combine that backing with orographic lift due to the Plateau and you get a deformation band o sorts in E TN. Again, I am still wary of this set-up as modeling juggling an enormous amount of plates for this set-up. This is a timing set-up which is a royal pain to follow. We need the northern system to catch the southern stream energy which is kind of stalled. We have to hit the jackpot in terms of confluence. If the southern stream is too fast, we get a weak frontal passage with light snow. To slow, and it could legit cut(though highly unlikely)
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Super complex setup which makes me wary. Basically, the GFS pops a lee side low(western NC) as the front passes. That happens often(just faint). The front running energy along the coast interacts, and the lee side energy transfers to the coast. This is like a Miller B, but east of the mountains. Those setups do occasionally happen - ceiling is high and bust potential is massive.
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Pretty consistent look w/ a slightly eastward jog.
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The GFS was flirting (and has been) with an inland runner. It could still settle on the coastal which is likely just a weak clipper, but if it goes to the inland runner solution...that would be optimal. The RGEM is likely amped at this range, but that look would be a forum-wide snow if extrapolated...and totals bias corrected to zero for Kingsport and Chattanooga of course.
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The 12z GFS is a great run. 9" for JC and half a foot for Sullivan. The 12z RGEM(at range and noted) looks like it was ready to rock with a vigorous system. Of note, double barrel systems are tricky as @#$ to forecast.
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Take a look at the 500vort maps for the UKMET. It goes negative tilt. We either need the northern stream to have some separation with the front runner in the STJ or we need the front runner to slow and get caught. UKMET is scenario two. GFS is scenarios one.
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That is it I think. I think the UKMET has that setup. Basically the front pops a lee side low while there is an slp along the Atlantic Coast.
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It may be that we see a double barrel low with one in the coast and one on the lee of the Apps...reference LC.
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Anyone have the 0z UKMET sequence? Cosgrove said the system was pretty significant on it, ie big storm. In the car line, so can’t look...If so, that makes two models that have it this AM.
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I know I sound like a broken record but, it is not uncommon for systems to gain strength(on modeling) during February. Also, I still don't believe modeling has a good handle on this system Sunday, even at this range. I don't think it will be anything huge, but it is very possible snow will be in the air along(just north and south) of the northern border of TN. And broken record alert again...low probability(increasing) along with a high upside.
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The ensemble has the overrunning solution.
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It is the exact opposite of a low in the Lakes in that respect, right? We get a good northern stream piece of energy...unless there is a phase, we just want the clipper or northern stream event. The 18z GFS has all kinds of stuff going on including a clean pass of an inland/Apps runner for what was originally a cutter! LOL. See hour 228. This could get kind of crazy. There is so much energy in the pattern after the 10th.
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The Euro provides two clippers. A word of caution, clippers trend north over time in many cases. What is fun about clippers is that they are often under modeled during Feb.
