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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC with a different scenario. There is so much energy is in the pattern, it makes me think of this quote.... "Negative, Ghost Rider. The pattern is full." .
  2. Carvers Gap
    iMHO, that is a decent pass by the slp on the 12z GFS. It is still a "reach" but a little more like the overnight Euro. The GFS is having a multitude of problems with handling energy being in(or not in) the Southwest. If all of that comes out, there should be a storm.
  3. Carvers Gap
    That "should" be a phase if that trend continues.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS left almost no energy over the 4-Corners for this weekend's potential window. Until that model resolves that BIG problem, no solution can be trusted. MAJOR differences at 12z.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 6z GFS(12z is running now), it looks like bowling ball season is about to begin. Most of those are cutters, but all you need is one.
  6. Carvers Gap
    If it doesn't cut-off the energy in the southwest, that could have been a big system. If that Idaho energy is real...the story isn't written on this yet.
  7. Carvers Gap
    ...Maybe won't phase, but that is three vortices being juggled at 150. Crazy looking run. Doubt it looks even close to that next run. It does tell me that next weekend is not worked out yet.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Was about to say the same thing. Yeah, this is not going to be anything like the last three runs I don't think. Should phase...could even cut.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We had light snow last night for about an hour and flurries again this morning. We had a ton of rain prior to that. Streams are full. January finished AN for rainfall here. Feb has a chance to be AN as well with the past couple of days of rain(2.08”) now already in the books. Good start for precip here at TRI.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Definitely got some snow here. Just got a very light dusting. Snow lasted about an hour.
  11. Carvers Gap
    For folks on the northern Plateau, NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC...after the 11th there looks to be several weak northern-dominated systems which will need to be watched.
  12. Carvers Gap
    If I had to pick one place that looks like is going to score, it would be Arkansas. If you look at the storm track above, you score with the western track. I think after the 20th, we have a break as the MJO rotates through the warm phases...and then a reload during March. I think this is a year where a later winter storm is on the table after a faux spring bout of warmth. If El Nino is about to to take over, spring might not be a slam dunk for being base warm. After BN temps for January IMBY, I will be ready for spring by the end of the month. My first onions were planted in the hoop house this afternoon. Spring is almost here. I never discount February surprises.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think the 10th-20th is a good window. When looking at the Euro Weeklies, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO make it back into colder phases(after leaving colder phases after mid-month) at some point around mid-March. It looks to me like the STJ fire lights at the end of the model colder winder for mid-Feb. Fingers crossed we can score something. Looks like we are back to BN for a 2-2.5 weeks beginning tomorrow.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Take a minute and look at the MJO phases above. Which one does that temp map look like?
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS sure looks like a phase 1 or 2 of the MJO. No changes to my thoughts from yesterday.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. The 18z operational Euro looked decent before the model ended at 90. I totally skipped the operational and just looked the control for that earlier post..
  17. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro control backed precip up to the Apps. It has sneakily been trending NW today. Will have to make a big move during the next 36 hours on modeling in order to have a chance.
  18. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Great quote and WILD map!!!!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Just uncanny. So, when you see the GFS honed-in on that event around the 13th....Normally, I would give no model any credence at 240, but it has been locked on.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS clown map for the entire run. Most of this falls after the 12th. That is a good signal.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I am going to use the GEPS as maybe the GEFS is a bit overdone. A big ridge out west shuttles cold air southeastward. Cold temps over Hudson Bay pivot waves of cold into that synoptic set-up. The storm tracks on modeling this winter are the two arrows originating in TX or the western GOM. That is a good set-up. No guarantees, but we take that 10/10 times. Good confluence set-up.
  22. Carvers Gap
    And one last post in a flurry of posts. Here is the d11-16 5d 500mb height anomaly look. Modeling has been quite consistent with this look for many days. The actual switch to this 500mb looks begins right around the 10th. Not saying that is what happens, but that looks pretty good. Get that inside of day 5, and one would think we have some chances.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I could be wrong, but the Euro looks like it is going to attempt a phase after 216. LONG WAY out there, but confluence appears to be decent around Valentine's Day. Maybe we will call it Winter Storm Desperado. Don't you draw the queen of diamonds, boy She'll beat you if she's able You know the queen of hearts is always your best bet Now it seems to me some fine things have been laid upon your table But you only want the ones that you can't get....
  24. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the 12z Euro has a sneaky shot of light snow on Tuesday for W NC and the mountains of E TN. Let's see if it continue to back. That has been a very quiet trend. Something just to watch for fun for NE TN folks. Out to 198, the Euro has a vigorous, little northern stream piece of energy. That is looking more like the GFS.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The MJO is forecast to just die in phases 2 and 3. Those are cold phases. -EPO is about to create a block which will drive the bus. The first week of February has always been warm on modeling for the eastern half of the state. Again, the window which is being mentioned is Feb 10-20. It is no slam dunk as modeling can hiccup big time during transitional months. That said, it can and does snow during a base warm pattern. Personally, I don't think this will be base warm. Most of the GEFS looks BN. It will be hard to erase these first few days of positive departures during a short month, but we erased a +29 during January and a +17 to start the month at TRI. Temps here finished BN, amazingly. Right now a good chunk of the western 2/3 of the forum area is under some sort of buffet of ice storm warnings, WWAs, or WSWs. Every pattern is going to have some warm intrusions, even during the coldest of cold patterns. And no guarantees. I do this as a hobby, so always take it with huge boulders of salt. Figure 1. Notice the EPO is positive right now. It is forecast to go negative around the 8th. An interesting tidbit. The NAO is positive right now but is forecast to trend briefly negative right before Valentine's Day. Usually a good storm signal. Figure 2. The MJO is in cold phases on the GEFS bias corrected map. That is a winter storm signal there. Figure 3. MJO monthly correlational maps entered on February. Figure 4. It may seem like a boring news day for those of us in the East...but really, this day is kind of crazy.
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