Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,695

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS says that winter is not over.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like modeling is seeing something around March 12th with a strong cold shot coming a few days after. Enjoy the spring warmth. Ugly pattern seems to be on many models after the 12th.
  3. Carvers Gap
    @Weathertree2, I think it is going to depend on the ENSO state. If we switch to El Nino and don't have a Nina hangover, I think it should be tolerable with maybe a seasonable fall. The hot, dry, never-ending summers are La Nina's typically. I will probably lean seasonal to maybe slightly above for summer, and seasonal for spring.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a decent trough amplification around March 12th. Something to keep an eye on.
  5. Carvers Gap
    LR models are really starting to bang the drum for a cold shot right around or just after March 10th. This wouldn't be a spring like cold air mass, but one more like winter.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Couple of light sleet showers rolled through here this morning. I was like, "What in the world is that?" Fairly decent sized pingers.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I gotta be honest, the Euro Weeklies don't look warm after week 2. I was kind of surprised. Now, I think the GEFS has handled the MJO better. However, it looks like the Euro Weeklies are rotating into the cold phases just after March 10th. Holston alluded to that above I think.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in TRI.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That is an old-school set-up right there. SLP forms to our SE and cold crashed into the backside of the storm.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Nope. It ended up getting its act together!
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks like a rainer as the high is much weaker over the top. Still in the game, but a different look for sure.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Grabbed this from the MA forum. A poster there has the 12z UKMET at 168. Anyone have a snow map for that range? Pivotal only goes to 144. Pretty much a perfect track for the eastern valley.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Right now, the cold just ridiculous for late February. Fortunately, I don't have anything but onions and garlic in the garden. The wild thing is the GFS had a decent pattern after that as well. The EPS has been kind of showing positively tilted trough with really cold air behind it. Probably a better look for the Ohio River Valley, but wouldn't take much to make March crazy.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and GFS are showing single digits for Sunday into Tuesday for overnight lows. This might be the coldest air mass of the season for the eastern third of the forum area.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is a little to southeast and we want it right there given trends!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Brutally cold air(relative to norms) showing up on several models for the 27-28th.
  17. Carvers Gap
    If the 12z GFS is to be believed, there is a big Arctic high trailing this system. This may well be a another case where the GFS nailed this from very long range, lost it, and got it back.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I missed it, but the 0z ICON had it as well. Looks like it is a close call for the I-81 corridor in the eastern valley, and I40(north) across the entire state...if modeling is even close to correct. Looks like the trend is northward. So, this could end-up in Columbus, Ohio, before the trends are over...but the hp to the north should help.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS now has the winter storm at 144.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Modeling sort brought back the system around the 27-28th timeframe. The Euro has it, and to a lesser extent, the CMC has it. The 6z GFS flirted with it. Just something to keep an eye on.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I should note that the control is just the one storm. I posted the entire run, but the only snow is the one storm for the most part.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The control FTW? Also, the EPS has the event.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Here is the Euro Kuchera
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, a fairly nice signal showing up.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Any of our posters in Sevier Co have to deal with that fire this evening? I am assuming the rain is going to end that event thankfully! https://www.wvlt.tv/2022/02/18/evacuation-ordered-due-fast-moving-brush-fire-pigeon-forge/
×
×
  • Create New...