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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    @Math/Met, any mountain wave updates. It is howling in west Kingsport BTW. Looks like that wind has worked its way down to the surface here.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and GFS end the warm-up right around the 24th, and then there is a return to BN temps. That return to cold has moved up ~7 days. It was on tap around March 3-4th at one time. This could be a long climb back to spring if that pattern establishes(Yukon Ridge). I tend to agree with Jeff that this pattern is on borrowed time, but some seasonal modeling is hinting at bouts of cold during spring vs a full warm-up and winter is over deal.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The CMC doesn't go out as far(240(, but it established a gradient set-up as well. The next system isn't in play when the run ends. This look has been showing up for days on ensemble runs. Operationals are finally picking up on it.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Normally, I would toss anything that extreme. However, the actual mechanics appear to be in place for something like that. I would guess more of KY and the Ohio River Valley event...but it depends on how far the cold presses. That look will likely be gone next run, but the synoptics are likey still there, meaning huge amounts of moisture and a potentially very colder mass later this month and into early February. That is the stuff dreams are made of...LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    With a VERY active STJ and cold looking more likely(and is speeding up in modeling a bit) for early March and even late February, an overrunning event of undetermined duration is a plausible scenario. Firehose meets cold air mass.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I will take what the 12z GFS is serving up, and call it a winter.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a Yukon block on the LR GEFS at 18z. @nrgjeffis that what that is or am I misreading that?
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS brought back the colder shot (6z was cold...0z was COLD).
  9. Carvers Gap
    It may or may not work out, but that is a nasty looking shot of cold showing up again on modeling this morning. I don't think lower elevations are out of the game. We just haven't seen a crazy March in a while. Even recently, I have seen light, measurable snow into April IMBY. It may well flip back warm during that time frame, but the speed of the flip on modeling could indicate significant cold relative to norms. We'll see. Still have a couple of weeks until that time frame gets here. A lot can and will change at that time. For now, we have the 0z GEFS/EPS/Euro Weeklies on board. It could bust. The much discussed 10th-20th timeframe will not verify as cold or snowy as modeled at range.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yep. I think that is what modeling is showing.
  11. Carvers Gap
    New is left and old is right. Day 14-21. Cold is centered after March 2nd or 3rd. The overall configuration at 500 is a snowstorm look. Lots of cutters, but one of those cutters could likely force a bowling ball underneath.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Major flip on the Euro Weeklies around week 2.5. They have turned quite cold. Of course, it could be a mirage, but those are some abrupt changes that are showing up on LR modeling. At least to me, that is a pretty significant storm signal which we don't always see during March these days. I don't think winter is over. It may take a break for a couple of weeks, but that looks not warm for early March.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Unless I am just looking at the wrong slides, that is a fairly significant flip by the 12z GEFS post 300 to a cooler/colder pattern and away from the torch.
  14. Carvers Gap
    And if the EPS is correct, we go from a flood pattern and back to a huge eastern PAC block which would set the stage for some cold wx in March. The GEFS is less enthused. I am a lot less bullish on a warm and early spring than I was a week ago. We are definitely going to see a warmup prior to any cold along with massive return flow and moisture.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the CFSv2 and the EPS with the east Pac/AK block...winter is not over IMHO. That is a BIG east Pac block at the end of the EPS run. CFSv2 is quite cold looking mid-late March. I would not be surprised (to each @John1122) to see a rogue snowstorm in March.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Moderate to heavy dusting of snow IMBY.
  17. Carvers Gap
    ...In addition to the potential light event this weekend and the window around the 20th(the storm AFTER the cutter).
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the last window will be just after March 10th. Yep, I think there is one last gasp.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Keep an eye on what comes after the big cutter in the Plains. Thunder here...and you know what might come next. TIMS models activation may be in order. Modeling is showing a system to our SE(low road) right after that cutter. The northwest trend is the real deal during late Feb.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Time to get this thread started...and yes, spring is FINALLY on modeling after the 20th. Onions are in the ground. We have about 170 planted - combo of two varieties of yellow(Vidalia variety) and one batch of red. We use a hoop house and cold frames. We used all of our onions from last year's garden. We have learned to dry and store them. Garlic from December is looking good. It was planted late due to a late delivery(labor shortage on the supplier end of things). Lettuce seedlings are up along with broccoli, chard, and cauliflower. Interestingly, I got a bad batch of lettuce seeds this year - I think or it was just user error! The were packaged for 2020 and then relabelled for 2022. Lettuce seeds don't keep as long which explains the 2% germination rate which I got first go around. Sadly, the bad seed was from a reputable supplier. I reordered from another supplier, and had about 98% germination rates by day 2 or 3. With grocery prices sky high, I might actually be able to compete with store prices this year. Though I doubt it, American farmers grow food in plentiful amounts and cheaply! It is truly amazing to walk into a grocery store.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Man, the ground here is barely unfrozen. I still see ice on small creeks where I run. The ground is not warm at TRI..maybe extreme south facing slopes, but otherwise, the ground is super cold.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro 500 configuration is way different. LOL. On to the next suite...consensus denied.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the Euro may swing and miss. Trough is too positively tilted. Let's see if something still pops.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The northern stream is quicker and southern stream slower at 63
  25. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro is rolling...
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