Carvers Gap

What is crazy, though the 12z GFS missed on the storm this weekend...it has nearly five separate systems which result in snow during the range of its 384h midday run.

The 12z EPS has a similar evolution of the storm, almost identical. Control is slightly less than the OP, but almost identical track. So the operational has good support from its ensemble. Of note, the 12z GEFS doesn't look that far from the Euro - just a lighter version.

Yeah @tnweathernutkept having to remind me that modeling really liked the backside snow development with this. I had my doubts modeling was correct. Verified nicely. He was on the money as usual. Been snowing here most of the day. No big accumulation, but that might be my favorite part of this entire system.

During the last three storms, it seems like the western envelope of modeling at this range has generally been correct IMHO. Anyone see that differently? Seems like all 3 storms had sharp northwest trends for 2 days worth of model runs, then jogged back the opposite direction by maybe ~10-20% of that mileage. But for now, we need to get that storm on all three globals. It is on 2/3.

Have not seen their discussion. If it was the morning disco, they were working off just a few oddball runs showing this. With back-to-back Euro runs, they will likely give it some consideration. With 5-6 days to go, they have room to go that way if need be. Never know, the Euro could be erroneously holding energy back which would allow for the 12z run to occur. That said, seems to me the cold air is not getting as far south as LR modeling had it, hence the NW jog.

The great thing is that is two straight runs by the Euro with this storm. The Canadian has it has well, but is a bit further east.

Here is the 24 hour Kuchera for folks to our south to see. The other image cut those totals off. It also eliminates previous snow fall from the remnants of today and also TR. It does not encompass the snowfall that continues to the NE. This is a solid, historical track verbatim.

12z Euro Kuchera map for the weekend storm. Subtract about 1" north of I40 in the valleys due to the TR system.. Cold air is in place. This is snow or no at this point.

Been out for a bit, did I miss anything?

Ended up with somewhere around 2" snow after the dry slot yesterday afternoon. Had about 0.5" of ice yesterday morning in the form of sleet and freezing rain.

And want to see the influence of the MJO, take a look at what the model is getting ready to do for the rest of the run....those really, really deep troughs that push well below us are suspect I think.

At 0z a lot of that energy for Saturday went through the Straits of Florida at 162 and then to the Bahamas. Now the energy is sliding across the GOM and the NW shield of precip encompasses most of North Carolina. It looks to me like modeling is dancing between the first piece of energy on Saturday and the one trailing behind it by a few days. No way modeling has any of that nailed down.

That is a storm signal for this weekend for at least the SE corner of TN, northern Alabama, and north Georgia. One more jog and a good chunk of E TN would be involved. This past storm trended massive jumps to the NW once it began moving. @Holston_River_Ramblerwould be interesting to see the move on this one. It went from nothing at 0z to a significant storm to our east within two runs. I doubt that is done trending.

To me, that at least jogs far enough north to get Chattanooga involved. Hard not to like, especially for those south of I-40.

Check out the weekend system on the 0z run and now 12z.

Yeah, that is generally my accumulation as well...my total might be a hair shy of that. The system this morning is what moved the needle on that. 78 Degrees on New Year's Day...and it has snowed three times since then. Beautiful day out there!

I should add that the trough will likely create a gradient where storms will ride the boundary of the Arctic/Polar fronts. Modeling will struggle mightily with setting that boundary. I would expect that boundary to be north of where current modeling is. Could it trend southward? Yep, we have seen it snow in New Orleans during several winters. That said, the MJO does not favor a suppressed pattern.

Certainly we can always strike out, but the SER has been there all winter. I don't think it is going away. Folks in NE TN know about 200-300 mile shifts in storms this winter. Anytime there has been the slightest relaxation in the jet, the SER is going to push. A strike-out for DC is not necessarily a strikeout for us. In fact, a great pattern here is often the pits or the Mid-Atlantic and NE. There is always a way to strike out at this latitude. So here are the ways we can score with a deep trough: 1. Clipper or northern stream energy w/ no help from the GOM. Prob our best bet. Always good to remember that clippers tend to trend northward at the last minute. 2. Multi-day overrunning event....look no further than last year. I might add that event was modeled for NE TN for days, and flipped late to west TN - BIG trend. 3. Slider 4. Miller A as the trough arrives and/or departs. The key is that cold air is now in place. That has been a problem for the past couple of weeks. So we exchange our active/wet pattern which has marginal cold for a pattern which has cold in place and we have to deal with suppression - still the same pattern just more cold pushing. That last scenario is an entirely different way of tracking storms. In NE TN, we have had to hope the storm doesn't cut. With these we have to hope they trend NW. There is an active STJ with a SER which will want to push due to the MJO. There is cold in place, I will take my chances. It could go dry or could be a pattern which produces a lot of snow. Where the focus has been on middle and west TN for the past couple of weeks, there is a chance the upcoming pattern could favor eastern areas which include Chattanooga, maybe even favor Chattanooga. The very best winters involved northern stream clippers and systems which trended northwest. That scenario implies a deep eastern trough which we are about to get. Could we go 17-18 where the entire cold shot is dry? Sure, but that actually has not occurred during this pattern which has been firmly established since the great flip of Jan 3rd. BTW, we have tracked three storms in just two weeks. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this pattern is exactly that....a pattern(meaning repetition) which has had an active STJ which has trended well north of the original LR numerical model guidance. As for Thursday, time of day is what matters....I have not looked at it. Would likely favor KY and the Plateau as Holston mentions. If at night, could favor NE TN and SW VA as well. I have low confidence it brings lower elevations snow. Looks like cold chasing rain, unless the front checks up Still waiting to see which piece of energy churns up a storm this weekend or shortly after......

We at least have to get to a two bear storm this winter. You know how storms have ratings. Maybe this will be it.

I am waiting on a storm which will bury six packs which are stacked end-to-end.

MJO map looks muy bueno.

For posterity....posterity and storm track reference. Subtract ~4.5 for this storm at TRI.

This 18z GFS happy hour run may be one for the digital snow record books.....

That Euro control map which I posted a few days ago....The 18z GFS has a very similar look after d10. Temps below zero all of the way into Alabama and Georgia.

Good look next weekend. So far it has been disappearing and reappearing on different days of different models. GFS and CMC have been consistent today with the look. The Euro totally lost it. Guessing they are sniffing something out. Finally, we have room for this to come northwest in E TN. Would be interesting if precip bridged the gap between the TR system and Sunday.