Carvers Gap
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Regarding next weekend...the 12z ICON has a nice "light snow falling into cold air" front. Guessing ratios would be nice if real. I can live with that scenario given the outcomes IMBY up to this point.
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Wild look for sure. It is probably super amped, but I am guessing that rates and a marginal air mass probably produce that look. Also, it looks like elevation may play a part there. But hey, it happened with the last system for folks at TRI. Rained here when it was snowing in Alabama and Georgia. LOL. The ICON is slightly more robust than its earlier run. Wouldn't surprise me to see that system trend north some. Just a super marginal air mass. It is a conundrum of sorts...get good interaction with the northern stream and we get marginal temps for precip or we get no interaction with the northern branch and we have no precip.
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12z NAM rolling in with a very amped solution for the Tuesday timeframe. If there is any doubt that model (at long range) is amped with systems to our SE, that should answer the question. While other models have trended to nothing for that day, the NAM is going strong. But who knows, maybe it is right? LOL. It is oing to have to get some support though from other modeling. It did catch the NW jog of at least one of the last two system, but that may just be a model bias which made it look right....Kind of like the CMC is always cold. That doesn't mean it is right when it finally turns cold. Kind of a broken clock is right twice per day.
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It is all about confluence. It is why many of us in E TN like -NAOs. As we learned this year, the -NAO has its greatest influence in mid and late winter, not December. We also tend to see snow right as the NAO exits which did exactly that this year (in spades for man). The -NAO forces confluence(the merging of the two jets) to occur in areas which are favorable for the eastern seaboard. A 50/50 low or a low over SE Canada will also do the trick but it is often very temporary(48-72 hours max). Generally you want a phasing trough to go neutral(axis is vertical) right as it slides over our forum area. That will often cause a slp to run up the coast from the central or eastern Gulf Coast. Right now we are in a Pacific dominated pattern, and confluence tends to scoot off the coast without some blocking or a 50/50 low. However, cold is more dependable in this current Pacific set-up I think. So we aren't fighting marginal thermal profiles. Kind of a trade off: cold/poor confluence vs less cold/better confluence regarding the current NAO cycle. I should note there are several cases where the northern stream actually can be its own winter storm. The 6z GFS and 0z Euro are very close to that for next weekend. Miller Bs are not terrible as long as the energy jumps from the northern stream and not southern stream. Southern stream Miller Bs are warm nose city. The position of the NA trough next weekend is almost exactly where EC posters want it in terms of its ability to allow cyclogenesis along the EC or just inland. One poster asked if this could trend northwest. The way this is set-up, it is almost locked right on the coast if it forms. The storms which originates in the southern stream is dependent on the northern stream energy to phase with it. For now, we need those systems phased over the Prairies and not TN which the 0z runs did. We need both pieces of energy to be reasonably potent. And what is crazy, we can get confluence even during terrible patterns. And it sometimes will not snow even when there is great confluence. The energy has to be there or the confluence of the two jets doesn't matter in terms of snow. There is a bit of a "game of chance" involved in much of this. I am not big into luck, but there is an element of good fortune. I am sure there are about 100 ways for confluence to occur. One of the great things about this region...even though latitude is a huge issue, we will often track some big storms during our lifetimes simply due to our proximity to both cold and three salt water bodies(Pac, Atlantic, GOM). For me, this is what I talk about when I look for windows. When does precip and cold show up over our area at the same time? Next weekend has potential, but is certainly not set in stone or even close to it.
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Looking at the 0z Euro, that would have been a pretty decent set-up for an upslope snow event for favored areas. If this simply devolves into a powerful clipper(hoping it doesn't jog northward which most eventually do), that would work. Canadian is a similar look but weaker. Right now, all three models have the synoptics for snow next weekend for some portion of the forum area: a strong clipper(s) and/or a coastal. I am not so sure the 6z Euro wouldn't have been better. I have to use the EPS control, because I don't have access to anything past 90 for the 6z deterministic Euro runs. If someone has the vort maps for that deterministic run, please share. Anyway, here are the 0z (putrid but still light snow due to a clipper) and the 6z EPS control runs. The control run I am assuming is probably similar to the deterministic. The robust 12z run yesterday dug a bit more west in OK/TX than 6z. Still, 6z is an improvement to 0z. Slower system along with an earlier and more powerful phase. This is when the 6z run stops.
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The trend at 0z was to phase a bit later which is not great for this area. The 6z GFS run was pretty much the same synoptics as 12z yesterday, but phased between where the 12 run and the 18z run phased. We need the slp to form in the eastern GOM in order to have the best shot on this one. Could be something. Could be nothing. At this point, we just want to be inside the cone. Right now we are on the western side of model runs. update: 6z runs are trending with an earlier phase than 0z runs, but not as early as 12z yesterday.
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Actually, ran a good chunk of I-40 across the entire forum area. It is going to change with each run for a while, but we are still talking about the storm today, so that is a plus.
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The 6z GFS returns to a look that is pretty good. More of a northern stream influence that pushes over the Apps and phases with a SLP along the coast. With six days to go, going to see a lot of looks. During the past 7 runs, the GFS has had the storm on four. The 0z run was less optimal since it developed offshore. TRI has scored multiple times with the 6z GFS look. A Miller B which originates in the northern stream is a look that TRI can score with. The Miller Bs which originate in the STJ are no bueno here. As for the M-T system....Unfortunately, the low in the northern stream on Tuesday is out of sync and/or latitude. We need that system to interact with the STJ.
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With a storm deepening to those levels, I would think that it would very likely trend NW of whatever cone/track models eventually settle upon IF the storm is indeed real. Lots of hypotheticals in that last answer. Also, the NW quadrant would very likely have incredible wind and precip totals. Honestly, those are anomalous solutions compared to what we normally see during winter wx modeling. Extremes rarely last on wx models at this range, but sometimes models do pick-up strong storms at range. Odd to see all three models pick it up at 12z. To be fair, the GFS had this solutions yesterday at 12z. So, might be something is in the kitchen cooking. I went over and read the MA comments after the GFS ran...as the energy began to phase in the Plains, Stormtracker(paraphrased) said, "Somebody fire-up the Jaws theme." LOL. Fun run on a cold and cloudy day. I would think this will certainly change some with each run, ranging from nothing to varying tracks. Doubt we see a 966 parked along the Carolina coast during future runs. That said, all three ensembles had powerful systems. The Christmas storm last year was picked up maybe at ten days? Anyway, time will tell. Huge grains of salt at this range. Just speculating at this point for sure....
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Both the Euro and GFS at 12z keyed on the same piece of energy. CMC keyed on the piece that was just after that. The thing is, this is the timeframe where the pattern retrogrades. All of these storms which have been recurving as they go OTS...that track is going to be right along the EC for about 3-4 days. If some energy manages to get into that window, it could potentially form a Nor'Easter. Nice suite. edit: I should add, this is also right as the pattern shakes up. I believe there may also be a sharp drop in the AO coming up as well according to JB. Also, looks like the SOI had a couple of sudden drops just a few days ago. That drop/rebound...seems like that preceded our recent stormy episode. Over and out for me this afternoon. Have a good weekend, everyone!
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Euro manages to get a 987 slp inside Hatteras and deepens it to 982 over Delmarva. Gets just north of NYC and goes to 978, and 975 just past that. NO IDEA IF THIS HOLDS, but nice to see all global ensembles pick this up. It is about 7 days out there, so plenty can change. If we are talking about this Sunday afternoon still, that is a good sign.
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12z Euro has less precip in the NW quadrant, but we take that track at this range 10/10 times.
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That is 3/3 with all global ensembles checking-in with a powerful winter storm next weekend. We will see if that look holds. We all know the drill.
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12z Euro has formed a compact slp along the GC. Not sure it has a way to gain latitude. But all three models now have a potent system during the same time frame.
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12z Euro about to give it a run as well?
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Back to reality after two wild model runs....TRI for the month of January so far. Impressive to see the positive departures of the first two days, and now the month is BN in terms of temps and AN for snowfall(those snowfall averages are woefully underdone IMHO BTW). The next week should place temps firmly BN for the month of January. For comparison, here are December and January wx data spreadsheets from TRI.
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That is the second big run of the GFS within this time frame. It had it yesterday at 12z as well.
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Both the 12z GFS and 12z CMC phased systems within about 24 hours of each other. Models might be(and might not be) honing in on a threat during that time frame. If the GFS hadn't stalled that first system, there might have been a second right behind it.
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The 12z CMC also has a big storm. Just toggle over to precip instead of precip type on TT, and you can see it. It is a slightly different evolution of the storm as it hits on the energy next in line after the GFS storm. I think time of day, latitude, and elevation are going to be a important for the borderline storm on Tuesday....Guessing a slopfest IMBY or just cold rain.
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The 12z CMC has a very similar storm but phases with the piece of energy which is following.
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For posterity. Digital Winter Storm "Mo" which is short for molasses - cause it wa moving that slow. There was a similar storm on modeling the other day which hammered eastern North Carolina. This is a bit west of that run.
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LOL. Pretty epic run and I don't say that lightly. No idea if that stays on modeling, but the ICON hinted at this on its 12z run. Modeling has been wanting to churn up a big storm between Tuesday and next weekend...but lately has been leaning towards a weekend event. That storm is on the map so long that it phases with with the next system which is like 2-3 days behind it. Not often we get to see that type of run. Hope it comes back on future runs needless to say!
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And that storm gets cut off. It is going nowhere. It is stalled out.
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That is a whopper of a storm. 966 slp at 204 over the South Carolina beaches. That would surely be big for E TN. That is a great phase.
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Yep. The 12z GFS is a good look for next weekend.
