Carvers Gap

At 39, the Euro is colder.

Originally, the 13-15th looked a lot warmer from a distance on modeling. 50 is going to feel like a heat wave today. Morning lows have been rough. I use my own "hands are cold as crap while jogging" index. LOL. That index has been high. I couldn't feel the tips of my fingers after running yesterday - could barely use my iPhone to check distance LOL. As for Robert, are you talking about his post about Raleigh to CLT to ATL? I don't think I have seen the JB post about the 24th. I will say the jet configuration is there for an Arctic outbreak. No idea if that happens, but all it would take would be a deepening storm or just a strong front crashing through the Ohio Valley headed due south.

Yeah, thanks for the clarification. That makes sense. I know your definition of "region" is a bit different than mine. LOL.

Yes.

I could be wrong(happens a lot), but just spitballing.....looks like modeling are converging on an inland runner. Once they converge on that track, all eyes turn to intensity and handoff. For those of us in the East, we probably should be thankful we can even talk about this today. Because yesterday's look and trends were hot garbage for us. LOL.

You can see the increase in snowfall from 6z to 12z for the GEFS. That is quite the storm if it verifies.

It could, but that low placement is well west of other guidance. That is definitely a downlsope. But it is important to remember that modeling is just now dialing this in. If that low were to deepen, that precip makes it across the mountains. Also, people west of 81 and 75 would likely be in the game. I rarely get downsloped here from a SE wind. It is a legit concern in the foothills unless the slp strengthens. I get downsloped when the system approaches from the west of Kingsport. With models moving around so much, doubt they are done.

To me the track is fairly consistent now. What is unknown is how much of a handoff will occur, ie how much of the remnant original low sneaks west of the Apps. Models differ greatly. In general, we have seen modeling trend well south today. Now that the track seems almost consolidated, let's see what happens. Modeling may stay with the same look or it may strengthen the slp in the coastal plain as the upstream unknown variables are solved. Definitely could bust, but a good run of the GFS for most of the state. If the Euro holds at 12z, that is a good look.

Downlsoping could be a problem east of I-81. I think west 81, it would be less of an issue. Now, when it pass through initially, downslope could be a problem. SE return flow the west side of 81 benefits most of the time.

Yep. So you can compare the trend from 6z to 12z. Generally what I do.

Looks very much like the Euro.

The 12z GFS was just a massive snowstorm for TN. Surprised nobody has posted the maps. The GFS cave is almost complete....The Euro, if it holds and its track verifies, it retakes king of the hill status.

How big is the area for the regional average? TRI has already been in the teens 4x this month w/ an average low of 27 to date, and that includes two really warm days to start(out of 12 days)....I would think(no guarantees) that the timeframe after the 20th potentially could yield some pretty low numbers here. We have already hit 15 and 16 with just light snow cover. Edit: To define "pretty low," maybe low teens or slightly lower. That looks like a really cold air mass. If any storm to our east deepens, TRI can get pretty cold with those. Potential is there for lower with a big system. In 17-18, our rivers froze with no snowfall on the ground.

Auburn, with that big transfer from UNC, is Final Four caliber.

So this has trend so much south since last night that the risk is a whiff to the south. LOL. The GFS is either about to score a coup or has a big problem with old school NAM type amping.

And turn out the lights in the rest of the Valley - major ice storm.

Only issue is that is a weak, weak system being portrayed - speaking of mb. The downslope in E TN would be a big problem unless it starts to spin-up a bit better. Need rates to overcome the downslope. Chattanooga peeps say, "Bring me the NAM!!!" LOL

That is a HUGE move by the NAM. Looks like a Miller A if it doesn't slide off.

That NAM run is coming in so far south, it actually is bringing Chattanooga into play and whiffing above I40. Now let's see if it makes the turn or slides OTS.

That is so far south at 65, it doesn't even look like the same storm. LOL.

This is a fairly sizable change by the 12 NAM through 60. It is the NAM at range so that could be the case....

Looks colder across the forum area.

Greene is crazy. Used to have a poster over that way who posted a bunch @waltrip. Think @Math/Metis over there as well...or at least follows the wind situation at Camp Creek. Micro-climates galore in Greene Co.

Auburn is good. Don't even get me started about how the SEC pretty much forced UT to fire Pearl only to let him come back to Auburn after his show cause was over. So crooked. UT is feast or famine during games. Long scoring droughts and poor line-up rotations have kept us from winning some games. ZZ, Vescovi, and Chandler are the three we need getting time together, and consequently, the most minutes. We don't have a dominant post game, so we are going to have to be slashers, drivers, and push the tempo. They will need to rotate those guys around on defense so that they can manage their foul situations. We are missing some pieces right now in the post, or this team could go deep. Without consistent post play, our results will look similar to the LSU game.

Unless Arctic air is in place....pretty much the case at this latitude. GOM and mountains just add an extra degree of difficulty.