Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The thing is about La Nina winters....when they end, they end very quickly. But as Jeff noted, we are not there yet.
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The 18z GFS looks great. Chattanooga folks might like that run!
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Nope. The IO is firing. It will propagate into 6 almost definitely. The better question....Can we keep it cold even if the MJO rotates through 4-6. I "think" that happened in maybe 96 or one of those 90s cold winters. Also, if things are actually moving along in MJO country, it may not actually stall. Just would end-up with a two week thaw. My hunch is we hold this pattern until early Feb, rest of Feb is warm, then we break back cold in early March. Just a guess.
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That is one cold run of the 12z EPS. When one sees -10F BN at the end of a run for northern portions of the forum region, that is very cold. Wished the Weeklies would have been derived from that newer run. If that verifies, a potentially good two weeks of tracking is in store...bout all we can ask for.
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The 12z is not so much a different run at higher liatitudes. It just creates an Alaskan block instead of an Aleutian high straight from the gates of....LOL.
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Agree. Just have to keep an eye on it. What I have noticed is that it will spit-out one of those off runs. Either they get more frequent or totally disappear for a week or so. It did something similar for the 4-5 days forecast right before Christmas. Maybe a week or two prior to that window, the GFS had several runs which looked like we might steal a snowstorm. Instead, the actual result was just a continuation of the warm pattern for about ten more days. However, those few Dec cooler suites were likely the opening shot in it eventually sniffing out a pattern change about a week and a half later on Jan 3rd. ....What the 6z ain't, the 12z is. LOL.
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12z GFS appears to have found its stormy pattern again. Three minor/moderat events to watch beginning this weekend.
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This is what I was discussing prior. The 6z GEFS with a HUGE break in continuity. It has almost no support from its ensemble blend. There might be two or three members (out of 30) which supports the operational, really only one to that extreme. Below is a comparison of the 5d 500mb anomaly on the deterministic vs the 5d ensemble blend of the 6z GEFS and GFS. BIG differences. I will probably toss the 6z GFS, BUT it sometimes (as @Holston_River_Ramblernotes correctly) sniffs out a pattern change before any other operational or ensemble. What I am hoping is that it is a head fake similar to what it tried to do right before Christmas - tried to go cold but the extreme heat followed. Maybe we get the opposite this time...head fake warm and ends up with a period of extreme cold before the pattern flips. I think the window for the pattern change is probably Jan 25-Feb5. I would be surprised if we revert back to the Aleutian high on a long term basis. It would not surprise me to see the trough got back West, but push more this time around as there is no -NAO to bottle it up in the northern Rockies. That said, the QBO argues for cold. Also, the wavelengths will begin to change some as we approach spring. That process alone will make it tough to lock-up the cold in the West. As is, if we escape January with seasonal temps, we can all agree that is a "take." We started the month with a 25+ anomaly and have whittled it down to +3.5(TRI has record 3+" of snow even though that anomaly is positive). I suspect we may get that all of the way to BN by the end of next week.
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The BOM had been pretty awful of late in regards to the MJO. It had us just a few days ago going into 1-2. The EURO hasn’t been much better. GEFS has been the counterbalance to the EURO. Prob a blend of the GEFS(which hasn’t been updating) and the EPS is a better move - non-bias correction has been more accurate IMHO. My guess is that we will stay cold regardless of the MJO phase through at least Jan 25 and maybe to the 30th. Some winters the MJO becomes a non-factor. For now, the trough going back West makes some sense IF the eastern PAC retrogrades which is not a slam dunk. The 6z GFS is an example of how that could evolve. Again, the GFS is likely too quick. One note, the EPS likes to put the trough in the West regardless which I believe is a an MJO bias towards 6. If/when the GEFS/GEPS flip the trough to the West, we will know the game is up. All three global ensembles are good - for now. Deterministic runs will likely catch a pattern change first. My guess is the GFS will waffle back and forth in the LR. If it does that, sure sign a pattern changes is just past its 16 day horizon. In the meantime, can’t borrow trouble. Plenty of interesting wx on the table beginning this weekend and into next week.
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LR Post: Might have been an off run by the 6z GFS, but that is a significant break in continuity. It has no support from the 6z GEFS. However, with the MJO beginning to fire(we really want the MJO at low amplitude so that HLB can take over), I think we are going to see modeling begin to want to push a semi-permanent ridge into the East at some point after the 25th. It is likely the GFS is ahead of itself or even completely wrong, but you can see a similar trend on the 0z EPS with it cutting into the BN temps it had forecast over the EC in the LR at 12z yesterday. Cold is still there, but so is the trend to cut into it. I think we are good from the 15th to the ~25th. After that, I think we begin to see the wheels turn in regards to ending the current cold pattern. How quickly that happens is dependent on two juxtapositioned regions of the MJO, and which signal wins. The MJO firing is truly an unfortunate occurrence, but was also likely inevitable. Will wait until we see the CPC update the MJO today before commenting further. If we go to phase 4-5-6, let's hope it is quick. As is, looks like we have several storms to potentially track before that happens - beginning this weekend.
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Yep. Just eye-balled the 500 for the 18z GFS...looks like a super similar feedback issue as earlier. I mean it could verify, but looks super wonky. Took the GFS a couple of days to work through that last time. I haven't looked at the GEFS, but I bet it gets that smoothed out enough to where it won't affect the ensemble.
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If you look back at the thread around the 26th and 27th, the GFS had similar issues with a low pressure feeding back just off the coast of California re: the Jan3rd time frame. That did not verify in actuality that I know of. It occurred about 7-8 days prior to the flip. Might be a bias we need to keep an eye on. The old Euro used to have a terrible bias with southwest lows.
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Last week Saturday, we recorded 78 as a high at TRI. Yesterday, we had snow on the ground IMBY. After tracking two winter wx events during this past week, we take a break for a few days. Today has been a soggy and cool day which is typical of many, many Januarys.
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12z EPS looks a lot like the 12z GEFS.
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The 12z GEFS and now 12z Euro deterministic have a lot of opportunities. Tough to talk details just yet, but a good look nonetheless.
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Not sweating the MJO just yet. The switch there is coming though. That said, sometimes HLB will override the MJO, but it didn't during December. This is December now, though. Looks to me like we are good through roughly the end of the month. The 12z GEFS is something to behold. It is very nearly a multi-day over-running event beginning just after next weekend. The snow mean for TRI is almost 6". The GEPS is not far behind. 12z Euro is on board with maybe cooking something up next weekend. Looks like a very active pattern ahead where the Alaskan block and/or EPO are going to drive this bus until they just run out of gas.
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Wild swings in weather incoming I think. This how La Nina normally behaves - crazy town type stuff. Last weekend we managed to set record highs on a Saturday and by Sunday night it was snowing - that kind of wild. Weak La Nina patterns are the my favorite. LOL.
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To me the storm track looks good in the medium and long range. That doesn't mean we get every storm, but during so many of the past few winters, the track has been less than optimal.
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I thought they all looked very good. At some point, I do think we see the MJO begin to move. JB had a great write-up on that today. MJO plots could get wild as we potentially will have convection in two different MJO regions (5/2?). The Australian has a new look where it takes the tour during the second half of the month. No other model has that. The Australian MJO has been woeful at times this winter, so I am not holding my breath waiting for a correct solution with it. We could see a major shift in medium and LR modeling if that BOM look persists. For now, I suspect that we could stay cold, even in the warm MJO phases if the Australian MJO is correct for the second half of the month. That has occurred before during one of the 90s winters...maybe 95-96? Can't remember. To me, looks like cold is coming and storms as well, regardless of the MJO look right now. I think we can get to the end of the month in good shape, but slightly shaky ground in saying that. Patterns normally run 4-6 weeks. By the end of Jan, we are pushing the limits at how long this pattern can hold. Not saying the next pattern is worse BTW. I suspect the next pattern pulls the cold into the center of the country or back into the front range. I bet it pushes more than it did during December if that is the case. The 18z GFS is where we want this to go. Looks crazy good.
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Really there are two boomers within the next week on that run. NE blizzard and then a potent slider. Either, both, or none could impact this region....better that just “none” as an option at this point! As John notes, modeling has really wanted to deepen storms along the coast. Tnweathernut also stated it’s a matter of time before something phases.
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18z GFS is bringing the good stuff so far this run...
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You should put that in the historical thread. Very cool.
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Nah, I am an NAO guy myself, but see the Pacific as much more important than I used to, especially given where the AMO is. @John1122 though is the Pacific guy, and for very good reason. John has two big things he preaches for in order for us to achiever cold winters....1. Cold than normal November 2. Good Pacific. I soundly concur. He has kind of one me over on the second point. When you go look at great winter patterns since the late 80s(and prior), you actually will see a +NAO for some of them. The -NAO is just a common factor in many BIG coastal storms. But if you want a really cold winter pattern, the Pacific has to be there. It is very difficult to find a winter where the Pacific was not in our favor. December was just wonky. That big Aleutian high in combo with the NAO, oddly locked the cold in the West - very unusual pattern. If the AMO was in our favor, the Atlantic would be much more important. Until it switches back, the Pacific is the key. Now, the NAO is much more effective during the second half of winter. I don't think I really understood that until this winter. FTR, you do not want an NAO during summer - HOT! If we can hit a good -NAO cycle, that corresponds with good winter cycles as well. It may have more to do with the -NAO being a signature of a disruption of the TPV. IDK.
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I was in TRI at the time. There may have been some ice. The weather was so bad, I just remember there being a layer of ice under the snow for weeks. Not entirely sure how it got there.
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Oddly, many of the teleconnections during these two storms were not optimum. I will have to double check JB on this, but he basically said all of them(with the exception of the WPO) were not in the right spot. I am guessing the potential upcoming cold shot will be EPO and/or Alaskan block driven.
