Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Both the 12z CMC and GFS are showing single digits for Sunday into Tuesday for overnight lows. This might be the coldest air mass of the season for the eastern third of the forum area.
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The 12z CMC is a little to southeast and we want it right there given trends!
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Brutally cold air(relative to norms) showing up on several models for the 27-28th.
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If the 12z GFS is to be believed, there is a big Arctic high trailing this system. This may well be a another case where the GFS nailed this from very long range, lost it, and got it back.
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I missed it, but the 0z ICON had it as well. Looks like it is a close call for the I-81 corridor in the eastern valley, and I40(north) across the entire state...if modeling is even close to correct. Looks like the trend is northward. So, this could end-up in Columbus, Ohio, before the trends are over...but the hp to the north should help.
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The 12z GFS now has the winter storm at 144.
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Modeling sort brought back the system around the 27-28th timeframe. The Euro has it, and to a lesser extent, the CMC has it. The 6z GFS flirted with it. Just something to keep an eye on.
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I should note that the control is just the one storm. I posted the entire run, but the only snow is the one storm for the most part.
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The control FTW? Also, the EPS has the event.
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Here is the Euro Kuchera
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Yeah, a fairly nice signal showing up.
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Any of our posters in Sevier Co have to deal with that fire this evening? I am assuming the rain is going to end that event thankfully! https://www.wvlt.tv/2022/02/18/evacuation-ordered-due-fast-moving-brush-fire-pigeon-forge/
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Yeah, the wind will be still here and then it shakes the house. We have had some huge gusts today. Looks like the airport had a gust up to 38mph today. I would guess the ones IMBY were strong. You could hear the wind whistling through the cracks in our window(and they are updated window). I have never heard wind forcing into our windows like that. 18z GFS has the storm for western TN again...creeping eastward ever so slightly.
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Man, the 12z CMC shows super frozen set-up. With the firehose on....the cold is going to cause problems if it gets southeast far enough.
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The 12z GFS feels like Memphis hasn’t had enough ice for this season!
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We have very cold air about to interact with the firehose. I don't claim to know where this interaction will occur over the East, but it looks like that likelihood is growing.
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The 0z CMC(beware....WxBell has not updated...use TT) has the overrunning event and the 6z GFS pretty much has it but with less frozen precip. I think the setup is there late next week on modeling again this morning. It just doesn't have the great looking clown maps. But the set-up is there. The Euro is not on board at this time. It has a couple of shots of precip into the eastern Plains and that is it. The GFS and CMC push the cold further SE.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
TRI's snowfall data is completely and totally corrupted. -
@Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountains (TIMS) mode was alive and breathing at 12z. LOL!!! Seriously, what an uncanny rule of thumb.
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@Math/Met, any mountain wave updates. It is howling in west Kingsport BTW. Looks like that wind has worked its way down to the surface here.
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Both the 12z CMC and GFS end the warm-up right around the 24th, and then there is a return to BN temps. That return to cold has moved up ~7 days. It was on tap around March 3-4th at one time. This could be a long climb back to spring if that pattern establishes(Yukon Ridge). I tend to agree with Jeff that this pattern is on borrowed time, but some seasonal modeling is hinting at bouts of cold during spring vs a full warm-up and winter is over deal.
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The CMC doesn't go out as far(240(, but it established a gradient set-up as well. The next system isn't in play when the run ends. This look has been showing up for days on ensemble runs. Operationals are finally picking up on it.
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Normally, I would toss anything that extreme. However, the actual mechanics appear to be in place for something like that. I would guess more of KY and the Ohio River Valley event...but it depends on how far the cold presses. That look will likely be gone next run, but the synoptics are likey still there, meaning huge amounts of moisture and a potentially very colder mass later this month and into early February. That is the stuff dreams are made of...LOL.
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With a VERY active STJ and cold looking more likely(and is speeding up in modeling a bit) for early March and even late February, an overrunning event of undetermined duration is a plausible scenario. Firehose meets cold air mass.
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I will take what the 12z GFS is serving up, and call it a winter.
