Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I don't look at those a lot, but upper level winds are humming along. Maybe those cells are under the entry point of the jet into the forum area? With winds moving like that, lots of energy in that front. Kind of out over my skis on that one. Do you know the answer?
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This is probably one of those winter systems(since the cold air is in place) that we could prob use a last minute NW jog. Though to be sure if it doesn't, I would be 100% fine with Chattanooga finally getting a snowstorm!!!! One more tic south, and Chattanooga is in this. It might be already with that Hi-res Euro run.
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The precip map does not fit the 6hr/preciptype map at all. I am just tossing the precip map this run. Overall trend is slightly (edit) south and east. Seems like models are sensing that cold front more. With modeling just now dialing this in, I suspect a slight uptick in precip. Would not be surprised if the precip in the northern stream is under modeled.
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@8283 El Nino Baby, I should add that southern TN could be in any of those Grand Divisions. Northern TN could also be in any of those Grand Divisions. I live in NE TN about 5 miles from Virginia and likely live remarkably close to @1234snow . If you are on the upper Cumberland Plateau, you are in the snow jackpot most winters. Great thing about TN is that snow is temporary.
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Question 1. Everything to the east of the Plateau is E TN. Everything from the western portion of the TN River to the Plateau is M TN. Everything west of the western portion of the TN river and to the Mississippi is W TN. The Plateau is the border between E TN and M TN. The eastern portion of the TN river runs through the middle of E TN and is not a demarcation line. Question 2. And yes, the Plateau gets a crap ton more snow than anyone else outside of places like Mountain City and Roan Mountain which are in the Apps. Both levation makes a and latitude make a lot of difference. Also on the Plateau, you all are likely on the upslope which is a HUGE bonus. The Upper Cumberland Plateau is also home to one of the most famous Americans of all-time, Alvin C York. Beautiful, and in some places, remote country up there.
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I say the system could be under-done(earlier post by me), but it is possible that this system also could run out of gas. IMBY, I see this from time to time. The system looks robust to my west, and then just kind of runs out of steam. @Holston_River_Rambleris correct I think. This just gets strung out. It may have been shredded by the Apps as the snow axis is almost over the Apps at 12z. That would cause moisture transport issues.
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Noticed with the entire global suite that the system was shifted SE to one degree or another, the CMC/Euro more than the GFS. Could be the apps sheered it out. 12z is on the left and 6z is on the right. You can see the difference on the Euro below. (map from WxBell). My guess is that this system is under-done. Given rations could be higher, we don't need a tone of precip.
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Thing is the 12z Euro system completely ran out of gas when it left our region, which is odd. Both the CMC and Euro cut the qpf. May just be a one-off, but something to watch.
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Weird precip look on the Euro with those streaks. That has very high bust potential for anyone on either side of those 20 mile wide swaths. The actual precip maps are much less for 12z. That said, the run just looks weird. On WxBell, good/heavy precip rolls right up the eastern valley and Plateau. Those streaks almost look convective. IMHO, should have been more precip. @Silas Lang, I literally just typed this. The precip output looks weird. The actual storm...the way it tracks, 6hr qpf/precip type....they look great. The map does not match the actual evolution of the storm.
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Can we just lock this look in now?
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I think modeling is all over the place with the MJO. From what I can tell, when the MJO rotates back through low amplitude 7, some runs stall it in the COD...some rotate it back through the colder phases either at low amplitude or background cold COD phases. My guess, the shunting of cold is probably related to whether a storm really amplifies the trough and digs. I mean, really a cutter(as much as we hate them) would dump the entire thing. I have been relying on ensembles and then just pick an operational run that looks like the most recent group of ensembles. The GFS can get sideways after d10 in a hurry which is understandable - plenty of rabbit holes to go down. Back to the MJO, if it rotates through the MJO like the Euro Weeklies had last night, the models will reflect that over time. Speaking of which, the 12z GFS...while it has sputtered in getting its output released, the run looks very cold after the 15th. Just one run, but good for now. And have to remember, we don't need the cold to get all of the way to New Orleans and allow for @John1122's favorite weather pattern where it snows in Cajun country(and doesn't here).
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I like that timeframe from the 15th onward(not that the one right now isn't producing). But watching the 12z GFS roll, there is room there for an Arctic outbreak.
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In the LR, thought this was interesting. Weeklies(non-bias corrected...bias corrected is still pretty good with background cold phases): Message is the next 3 weeks or so look good....then we will see. Phase 3 is warm for DJF. But when centered on DFM, it is widespread cold. I feel comfortable in saying that this not a pattern relaxation, but a pattern change. Now, that does not mean that we won't revert to this past December's pattern. That is certainly on the table once this runs its course. The SER will continue to fight. AN heights may still well center in the western half of the GOA at times(normal for La Nina as John reminds us). A three week shot of winter temps/wx is a pretty good look, especially if in January when climatology favors us.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
So it snowed in Fort Walton Beach, FL? Wow. https://www.fox13news.com/weather/snow-falls-in-florida-panhandle-following-first-winter-storm-of-2022 -
Just looking at the Euro Weeklies and the 12z EPS(which has a very short warm-up after Jan 10...not even sure one would call that a legit warm-up), this current pattern(and this is a new pattern I think) will be potentially be sustained maybe through the end of January. The next 30 days feature below normal(temps) for the entire forum area according to the Euro Weeklies, roughly 1-3 degrees below normal. Mean ridge in the Southwest. PNA ridge first couple of weeks will retrograde into an EPO ridge through approximately the end of January. LR posts by me will be fewer in the coming days as we now have a cold pattern. Hopefully, we actually have short range stuff to discuss and track. Only fly in the ointment is a BN precip pattern over western forum areas. E TN is seasonal in terms of precip. It is by no means a perfect pattern. I would not be shocked by a severe Arctice outbreak should one of the systems really deepen.
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Those are two pretty similar maps. Onset for western areas would be around 7:00AM and 4:00:PM Thursday for eastern areas.
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Man, if it can get some juice to go with that system...might be all snow. CMC clown map for 12z. Apologies if it has already been posted.
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If anyone has an accumulation map, please post it for the Euro. WxBell has been a bear to get to load for several days. Feels like I am on dial-up on that sight today. it is actually a good look for the accumulation map as well.
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If we are recruiting a strong 3* (low 4*)QB will a high ceiling, the Euro run for Thursday and Friday is it.
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It was just about there.
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12z Euro looks really good for Thursday and Friday - really good.
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12z CMC is a workable look north of I-40...Plateau westward.
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Map is pretty much accurate. However, I don’t know many(if any) who received more that a dusting in most of Kingsport. Maybe someone got a 1” lollipop. Not a huge deal, but it is pretty much brown/green grass here. LOL! Not the end of the world. Super glad it worked out for everyone else. There have been many times when we score in Kingsport and very few others do. Just taking our turn this time! Plenty of winter left. Plus, I enjoy tracking winter weather about as much as the event itself. Still crazy to have a high of 77 on Saturday, only to have it snow 36 hours later. That makes this hobby fun. La Niña winters have been good to you, @AMZ8990!
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Forgot about the convection piece. Good point.
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With one winter storm in the books for many(not all) in the forum area, time to turn the focus to the next potential storm and next few windows of opportunity. The 6z Euro is a little further south with the TR/FRI system. Given that model run and the 0z CMC, to me that looks like a good opportunity for someone along a line from Memphis to Nashville and points northwestward to maybe score a light event. Maybe some wrap around snow for the rest of us. But until the GFS caves, probably need to keep an eye on it. That said, the GFS is more of a quick hitting, light event for a good portion of the forum area about 100 miles north of the TN border (and northward). The Euro is more of a NW TN and KY/TN border system(and point northward. To me I think the CMC and Euro seems to have the TR/FR system under control. The Euro trended slightly south at 6z, so the I-40 corridor and northward is in play...again, I tend to think the Euro is correct here. After that, looks like a brief warm-up from the 12th-15th. The current area of BN heights will lift out to our NE and an area of AN heights will push into the Plains(out of the Rockies) at that time. Then, almost all global ensembles retrograde the trough(which pushes into the western Atlantic) back into the East and eventually to the mid-section of NA. Another good window on LR modeling after the 15th. Whether the trough continues retrograde back into the West is open great debate. The 6z GFS shows the potential of the pattern after the 15th. Good storm track on both the 6z EPS and 12z GEFS if it verifies. The MJO is coupled well with what modeling is depicting now as it shows a loop into 7 or the COD. I would suspect it comes back to phase 8 at some point. Almost all modeling has been pretty lousy with the MJO plots of late. The Euro was erroneous in trying to keep the MJO out of 8. It was correct in dragging its feet. The GEFS was too aggressive at one point with moving it into 8. It was correct in eventually moving into 8, albeit it appears briefly. The Australian MJO yesterday looked reasonable, though it is certainly not infallible either.
