Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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...Maybe won't phase, but that is three vortices being juggled at 150. Crazy looking run. Doubt it looks even close to that next run. It does tell me that next weekend is not worked out yet.
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Was about to say the same thing. Yeah, this is not going to be anything like the last three runs I don't think. Should phase...could even cut.
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We had light snow last night for about an hour and flurries again this morning. We had a ton of rain prior to that. Streams are full. January finished AN for rainfall here. Feb has a chance to be AN as well with the past couple of days of rain(2.08”) now already in the books. Good start for precip here at TRI.
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Definitely got some snow here. Just got a very light dusting. Snow lasted about an hour.
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For folks on the northern Plateau, NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC...after the 11th there looks to be several weak northern-dominated systems which will need to be watched.
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If I had to pick one place that looks like is going to score, it would be Arkansas. If you look at the storm track above, you score with the western track. I think after the 20th, we have a break as the MJO rotates through the warm phases...and then a reload during March. I think this is a year where a later winter storm is on the table after a faux spring bout of warmth. If El Nino is about to to take over, spring might not be a slam dunk for being base warm. After BN temps for January IMBY, I will be ready for spring by the end of the month. My first onions were planted in the hoop house this afternoon. Spring is almost here. I never discount February surprises.
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I think the 10th-20th is a good window. When looking at the Euro Weeklies, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO make it back into colder phases(after leaving colder phases after mid-month) at some point around mid-March. It looks to me like the STJ fire lights at the end of the model colder winder for mid-Feb. Fingers crossed we can score something. Looks like we are back to BN for a 2-2.5 weeks beginning tomorrow.
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Take a minute and look at the MJO phases above. Which one does that temp map look like?
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12z EPS sure looks like a phase 1 or 2 of the MJO. No changes to my thoughts from yesterday.
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Yeah, man. The 18z operational Euro looked decent before the model ended at 90. I totally skipped the operational and just looked the control for that earlier post..
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18z Euro control backed precip up to the Apps. It has sneakily been trending NW today. Will have to make a big move during the next 36 hours on modeling in order to have a chance.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
LOL. Great quote and WILD map!!!! -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just uncanny. So, when you see the GFS honed-in on that event around the 13th....Normally, I would give no model any credence at 240, but it has been locked on. -
12z GEFS clown map for the entire run. Most of this falls after the 12th. That is a good signal.
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I am going to use the GEPS as maybe the GEFS is a bit overdone. A big ridge out west shuttles cold air southeastward. Cold temps over Hudson Bay pivot waves of cold into that synoptic set-up. The storm tracks on modeling this winter are the two arrows originating in TX or the western GOM. That is a good set-up. No guarantees, but we take that 10/10 times. Good confluence set-up.
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And one last post in a flurry of posts. Here is the d11-16 5d 500mb height anomaly look. Modeling has been quite consistent with this look for many days. The actual switch to this 500mb looks begins right around the 10th. Not saying that is what happens, but that looks pretty good. Get that inside of day 5, and one would think we have some chances.
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I could be wrong, but the Euro looks like it is going to attempt a phase after 216. LONG WAY out there, but confluence appears to be decent around Valentine's Day. Maybe we will call it Winter Storm Desperado. Don't you draw the queen of diamonds, boy She'll beat you if she's able You know the queen of hearts is always your best bet Now it seems to me some fine things have been laid upon your table But you only want the ones that you can't get....
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Interestingly, the 12z Euro has a sneaky shot of light snow on Tuesday for W NC and the mountains of E TN. Let's see if it continue to back. That has been a very quiet trend. Something just to watch for fun for NE TN folks. Out to 198, the Euro has a vigorous, little northern stream piece of energy. That is looking more like the GFS.
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The MJO is forecast to just die in phases 2 and 3. Those are cold phases. -EPO is about to create a block which will drive the bus. The first week of February has always been warm on modeling for the eastern half of the state. Again, the window which is being mentioned is Feb 10-20. It is no slam dunk as modeling can hiccup big time during transitional months. That said, it can and does snow during a base warm pattern. Personally, I don't think this will be base warm. Most of the GEFS looks BN. It will be hard to erase these first few days of positive departures during a short month, but we erased a +29 during January and a +17 to start the month at TRI. Temps here finished BN, amazingly. Right now a good chunk of the western 2/3 of the forum area is under some sort of buffet of ice storm warnings, WWAs, or WSWs. Every pattern is going to have some warm intrusions, even during the coldest of cold patterns. And no guarantees. I do this as a hobby, so always take it with huge boulders of salt. Figure 1. Notice the EPO is positive right now. It is forecast to go negative around the 8th. An interesting tidbit. The NAO is positive right now but is forecast to trend briefly negative right before Valentine's Day. Usually a good storm signal. Figure 2. The MJO is in cold phases on the GEFS bias corrected map. That is a winter storm signal there. Figure 3. MJO monthly correlational maps entered on February. Figure 4. It may seem like a boring news day for those of us in the East...but really, this day is kind of crazy.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, think you have time to put together a GIF of the 12GEFS 500mb height anomy for North America?
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Spring is definitely not on wx modeling....yet.
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The 12z GFS continues to beat the drum for a system(northern stream influence) around or just before Valentine's Day - on of John's windows for development which he discussed above. Also, I wouldn't sleep on that system on Tuesday. It is the second of a 1-2 punch system that originally was a storm here, then trended OTS, and the trailer is now onshore/coastline again. The 12z GFS continues to advertise quite a volatile pattern after the tenth - meaning the potential for storms are there. For sure it could be dry, but there are a ton of relatively small pieces of energy flying around.
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Weak La Nina's are cold roughly 65-70% of the time in the Upper South, sometimes very cold. The worst cold/snow I have seen IMBY has been during weak La Ninas. Weak La Ninas often occur during the second year of a La Nina cycle. I think the combination of the La Nina being weak and it being year 2 of the cycle(resets ocean temp gradients), makes them colder on average. I will have a break-down of the winter(what went right/wrong) once February is over. These second year, weak La Ninas have a pretty normal pattern which is different than year one. Year one, December is cold with a warm-up during Jan/Feb. Year two, December is warm and then often(not always) January into February is cold. I also think @John1122's correlation of cold Novembers worked out nicely this year. I am not so sure it didn't work last year as well given the snow/ice in W TN last year at this time. Additionally, the cold/snow which we had in E TN was likely in response to the Dec -NAO pattern waining and leaving. The end of an NAO pattern is good for eastern areas. The storm tract remains suppressed even as the STJ kicks back in. And definitely worth noting, NAOs are better during mid and late winter(not December).
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That is wild. Cold appears to be outdoing modeling if that is the case.
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Keep the lights on!!! I think spring will wait until after the 20th at least...but it is kinda headed toward spring at that point anyway with the days getting longer and being almost March. I think Arkansas actually may still see some winter after this even if modeling is even close to correct. I have a batch of onions to put in my hoop house. I need it to get warm at some point. LOL.
