Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The NAM went absolutely nuts. Kuchera map is a beauty.
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12z Euro moves west with the heaviest snow axis. 12z on the left. 6z on the right.
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One word of caution, sometimes models can erroneously perpetuate a cold pattern. I "think" that the above is a reflection of the GEFS MJO which is bullish into 8 after this current loop back into 7.
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This is NOT a forecast. All speculation at this range. This is an example of what I said above about the pattern after the 15th. If you are going to draw up a cold, snowy pattern for the Rockies and eastward, this is how it looks. Blocking up top and see where the trough comes into the Lower 48 and turns eastward (the western Plains)....that is a pattern that would allow for a winter system(s) to track across our area. That is an EPO driven pattern with a ridge centered just below Greenland. Go look at some great winters storms in the East, and that is very close to the look.
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For posterity from TYS's climate page...One of the great flips historically that I have seen.
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The 12z GFS continues to advertise a potentially potent winter weather pattern beginning around the 15th. Both 96-59 and 14-15 and 85-85 all had second half cold shots which produced copious amounts of winter weather for the forum area. Maybe all three had warm Decembers. I don't want to hype that timeframe too much, but even Cosgrove mentioned it today. It could completely go "poof", but I like where modeling is today. What I would say is that timeframe would certainly fit analogs and what modeling is portraying. Additionally, the MJO is potentially(not a slam dunk yet) going to rotate back out of 7 and into colder phases or the colder plots of the COD. Preliminarily, that is our next window or just a continuation of this window(whichever verbiage you prefer).
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...That is awesome. After last week's heat wave, I am having a hard time remembering to grab a coat on the way out the door!!! One of my kids even rolled out the door yesterday morning (23F) with not coat on. They haven't had to wear a coat for a couple of weeks! LOL. The above will be a shock to the system!!!
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Yeah, I tend to agree with that. The UK...what in the world happened to that model? Also, seems like the Euro tends to be more accurate over the Lower 48 when the trough is in the West. The GFS seems to handle patterns (where there are eastern troughs) just a bit better, especially if the pattern has a lot of moving pieces like the current one. Though the GFS seems to be too aggressive with precip of late. The CMC has not been terrible either. And the Euro has been pretty steady with the past system and this one. Truly, not a bad winter season for the global models this winter. Their ensembles have done reasonably well with the longwave pattern at range.
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One thing to note @TellicoWx, I wonder if the GFS could be too progressive (as its bias) which allows for totals over the forum area to be higher. The RGEM may be a bit less susceptible to that. IDK which model is not either 1. too amped 2. too flat.
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ZR is noted along the CMC's southern flank as well.
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12z CMC Kuchera...shift very slightly northward noted.
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The 6z GFS looked awesome from the 15th onward. Let's see what 12z is about to do.
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12z(right) and 6z(left) GFS for comparison. Incredible to see the GFS remain that steady. At one time years ago, the GFS could be counted on for multiple northwest jogs as it was often too progressive. There was once a saying that the GFS better have the system in Cuba in order to account for the northwest jog it was going to take. The map below is the Kuchera snow algorithm. Kuchera gives us more, so I picked the beefier look. I firmly believe that taking that model that has the least is probably more correct once the system becomes reality. However, when posting maps on the sub-forum it is the user's duty to post at least one map with the absolute most snow for that given run or suite. This side-by-side is easier than making a gif. Accumulation trends allow one to see the track . @Holston_River_Rambleris the gif maker. Please keep in mind there is ice/sleet along the southern edge of this precip shield, maybe a 100 mile band which is roughly two counties into Mississippi and Alabama(just south of the TN line).
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Yeah, happens all the time here on northwest flow or just west-to-east flow. It will blank Kingsport and the line reform almost exactly at I-81. The Sunday system is usually money here with bands moving in from the SE. Just was unfortunate that go around. 95 times out of 100, that is money for Kingsport. This system tomorrow is trick for those of us in the shadow of the Plateau. Oddly, and I bet you have seen this in Knoxville at times, we get the opposite, and sometimes it roars of the Plateau.
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12z GFS is steady....very similar solution to its past runs.
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Definite trended southeast on that run - actually significant move by the 12z NAM. Looks like freezing rain and sleet along the southern border w/ moderate to heavy snow for a good portion of the state north of I-40. Not sure if it just got too amped at 6z or what. There is likely going to be a minor to moderate problem with the rain shadow as they system comes off the Plateau....IF it is that flat. Right now, I think modeling is having trouble with the strength/speed of the cold front. Let's see where the RGEM goes.
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The 6z NAM/RGEM have been trending northwestward for several runs. I went ahead and have compared their most recent run to 12z yesterday. The most recent trends usually matter the most. Now, most NW trends tend to stop and come back slightly at the tend. Edit: Forgot to add the Euro run comparison, 0z to 6z. Take a look at the westward expanse of the precip shield and also where the ice is. (New run is on the left. Old run is on the right.). Both have shifted northwestward, though not as pronounced at the RGEM/NAM runs. Watch the northwest edge of the precip. When those shift, it can mean the storm is strong and/or that the entry into the forum area has shifted westward. Here is the Euro comparison from 0z to 6z.
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Will get you a comparison map. Give me just a sec.
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Looks like that map was likely made prior to the 6z RGEM/NAM runs. We will find out in a few hours if those 6z short range models caught an actual trend or amped up a bit much. The RGEM moving that much is a significant.
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The trick is to watch the snow axis, not the eastward extent of the snow. If you live in the eastern valley, the further west that snow axis gets, the more likely the storm loses strength as it moves eastward. Modeling is in two camps right now w the westward trending camp having the most recent runs. Trends matter from this point forward.
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Definite and clear northwest jog trend underway. RGEM and NAM are the best examples. The 6z Euro shows this trend, especially in northern Kentucky. The 6zGFS was pretty steady. Could be the short range models are pretty amped, but....they both started the trend within a run or two of the other. Makes me think some new data has been ingested into modeling. Not surprising, but the extent of the jog on the two short range models is a pretty big jump. Now, they may trend SE again...or they may not. Just have to wait and see.
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Convection along the GOM robbed the last system of moisture which caused the amounts to be less. I think @Daniel Boonewas on the money with that. No convection this time the I am aware of. That MAY allow this system to perform as modeled or even over-perform. GOM convection is an absolute pain in the neck. Oddly for MBY, modeling repeatedly put me on the cut-off for this last system. Sure enough, I was on the wrong side of it! LOL. 18z RGEM and NAM looked good. They increased amounts quite a bit. Good sign.
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If there is a hand off, I just don’t want an early (or -non) whistle. LOL. All kidding aside, I need to go back and look. When there is an slp east of the Apps, almost always some type of handoff as you know. To me it just looks like the operational just ran out of gas. Ensemble looks healthier. I tend never to discount wonky Euro runs, because sometimes they are right. But that precip shield is an outlier for sure.
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Yea, we are probably still at a range where smoothing out the edges probably helps.
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I always like looking at trends once we get within 48 hours or so. Here are side-by-side comparisons of the 6z and 12z snow and precip totals from the EPS. Slight move to the south and east. Snow totals are more robust. Otherwise, the ensembles didn't change much which is good. Only downside, at this range the operational would likely catch a trend first. 12z on the left. 6z on the right.
