Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Lots of ice/mix over TRI on that Euro run.
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I mean the Euro barely(and I mean barely budged). It might even be further east around Hatteras than 0z.
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In other news, the 12z Euro held serve.
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From Pivotal: (12 Jan 2022) GDPS and RDPS maps may be delayed or missing due to data feed problems at Environment Canada.
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Appears the CMC is "broke down"(poor grammar noted...but used anyway). LOL.
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12z GEFS is a slop-fest in NE TN. The 500 pattern argues that the cold should be scoured out, and it would be rain here. Cold just hangs on forever in NE TN and SW VA. Not sure that is actually what happens. A lot of times modeling will erroneously bleed cold air into TRI. Verbatim it is is snow to sleet to rain. One note, the 12z GFS is slightly colder across NE TN and SW VA. @Daniel Boone what do you think?
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Agree on all counts, but will add that I am in the camp that wants snow. LOL.
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Just digging around while waiting on 12z. When I first started following modeling, if I saw a d8-14 that looked like that, I was pretty excited - BN temps and AN precip w/ a great looking storm track. We may not get anything or we may do well...but tough to draw up a winter pattern better than that. Also, here is the analog package which was released yesterday. 1994 stands out. Some cold/stormy analogs in that package.
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Trends at 0z are important. I don't think we will see modeling step back towards a major hit. Agree on all points. I do hold out a glimmer of hope as the Euro op at 6z looked more favorable in terms of location and wasn't as wrapped up. EPS has more members going hybridB though the mean also looked weaker which we need. That is the first time during several runs in which I have seen modeling hiccup.
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The 0z CMC looks almost identical at 0z to the GFS. Most ensembles are trending towards a more hybrid-B. I wish the GFS didn't have support, but it has the lion's share right now. I definitely consider the GFS a plausible option as nearly every model is trending towards it, including and especially ensembles. The problem right now is I think the GFS has a bias with being overly amped, and has been so for most of January for our region. I think some sort of handoff is highly likely. The question is whether the GFS is over-doing it, and it might be. The bigger concern is the GFS has been a step ahead of the Euro during January, just have to take into account it juicing-up these storms. Right now that extra strength makes a world of difference for those along I40 and north.
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6z EPS was weaker and less northward with its slp. Yeah, if the CMC/GFS stay with a hybrid MillerB and the Euro continues to trend that way, definitely time to send the punt team out. For now, I am having to call a fourth down timeout on a short yardage situation at midfield. The 6z EPS does have more members trending to the hybridB track, but the surface reflection was weaker which blunted the warm air advection into our region. The control run looked similar to 0z. A weaker system might be a good counter balance to the overall track. Oddly, feels weird to see a more progressive system on the Euro and a more wrapped up system on the GFS(now the CMC). Going to wait for trends at 12z and 0z before throwing in the towel. Sometimes TRI can get some snow out of these set-ups if the transfer is early(but to the southeast of where it is now), and the storm is inside Hatteras. It is inside Hatteras for sure on modeling, but the slp reforms too late to help on the GFS/CMC. I said earlier we need a later transfer. Probably is more accurate to say we need an earlier transfer to a slp in southern Georgia and an initial slp which doesn't get overly strong and plow into the TN Valley.
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Agree. Good trend for sure. Euro trends are important. Maybe the NW jog has stopped. We are about to find out if the GFS has a tendency to be too wrapped up. This may be the first of several storms to track if the the LR ensembles are correct. Sometimes big storms end a pattern. In this case, this may very well be beginning a 14-17 day cold snap.
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On a very positive note, the 6z GEFS/0z GEPS/0z EPS are showing a very cold pattern after the 20th. That was a little in doubt a few days ago. I guess with the sever cold being about ten days out...it is still in doubt. LOL. Depending on the timeframe, most show temps dropping 10-20F below normal. That type of cold shot would likely place January below normal for temps at TRI despite having a +29 day to start the month and maybe a +17 day on the second. If models are to be believed, we are potentially looking at an air mass of Arctic origin during after the 20th. Below zero temps would be on the table depending on snow pack. The 0z Euro control and 6z GFS are stone cold.
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Good trend on the 6z EPS, the slp was smaller and not as far north. The slp looked slightly less wrapped up on the 500mb vorticity map. I would guess the handoff would have occurred later. The run itself was warmer over most of the East than the previous run.
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Trends over night are not the best. Need this to begin trending the other way. The 6z GEFS has a majority of its low placements moving into the TN River Valley. The 0z EPS now has a much bigger cluster of lows (1/3) making a significant move northward over Alabama. It had few, if any, at 12z yesterday. Unless something changes drastically, I think we will see some sort of significant energy hand-off to the coast. Just how much energy makes it into the TN Valley is open for debate. For those in the eastern valley, we need that slp further south. I have watched a lot of these hand-off type systems, often seems like they come further north than modeled in the eastern valley. Maybe the recon plane will help models get some clarification. For now, 2/3 of the global ensembles are generally depicting an elevation dependent event.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
66-46 and shot 44% from the free throw line!!! LOL. -
18z EPS looks good in terms of slp locations. Oddly, it is the 12z GEPS(Canadian) which has several members cutting west of the Apps and then handing off.
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The thing about operationals right now...they will likely be catching trends before the ensembles. The operational GFS caught the northwest jog on last weeks second system(edit) before all other modeling. It just over-did precip.
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Looks like the main system slowed down, allowed for more spacing between it and the Thursday night deal(which becomes the 50/50), and ultimately that spacing allowed it to come north/cut. That 50/50 is needed to prevent the cut. The spacing ultimately allowed it to move a hair north. Ultimately on that run it models a crap ton of snow on folks to our east who canceled winter about a month ago. LOL. It doesn't really affect the coastal low as the energy is going to form in the Panhandle it appears. But when it cuts into the forum area, it just washes out thermal gradients. I suspect we are highly likely going to deal with a handoff. Of note, the GFS has been entirely too wound-up with the last two systems. So, let's see where other modeling goes with this. I mean, this storm may end up in Ohio before this is said and done (with those big moves today). Lowering expectations on my part quickly!
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That is a non-starter for our area. Handoff leaves thermals washed out. On to the next run.
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Hybrid Miller B incoming. Low cut into TN and will hand off to the GOM at 111.
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Lots of rain on the front end this run. We really need the north trend to hold up, but I think it is going to continue with this for a few runs. Likely going to cause a hand-off issue(future runs) if the trend continues.
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This run is a bit warmer through 90. Tells me it is digging and is further north.
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Track should be about 20-30 miles further north by 84. That will likely allow a bit more of the warm nose downstream. Still could change even on this run.
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Slowed down a hair at 78 I think. Might allow for more spacing with the first system. Might allow it to track a bit further north without the 50/50 to hold it in place. As Holston notes, looks super similar.
