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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That sounds cold!!! We heated our house at the time with a portable kerosene heater and one wall heater. The cold was almost like a liquid. It just seeped into everything. The insides of our windows froze due to condensation. Pipes froze. We had to make sure that the light in the well house was left "on" in order to keep the well head from freezing up. It was an amazing time.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Obviously singling one run out(at long range) is just speculation on my part. I am just providing an example of one potential path modeling may settle upon. After 198, TRI only goes above 40 for (1) six hour time frame until the end of the run - I think. I would say right now that temps below zero are in the realm of possibility if modeling is anywhere close to being right. Just going to depend on whether an eastern storm deepens. If we were to get hit by an inland runner which deepened and sent the cold south...93-94 is within the realm of possibility. That means snow would be around for days if that transpired. I remember driving to UT on the interstate from my apartment at Papermill with just one lane of the interstate open. It was brutal. I somehow forgot that winter, but John reminded us that winter was brutally cold. I do remember an afternoon that winter when we had convective snow thunderstorms. Have never seen that before or since.... A little ahead of myself at this point. Want to wait a few days before really saying this is likely. I think the potential is there though.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yep, models are definitely honking, and so are analog packages and the MJO to some extent. Obviously, nothing is a certainty, but very strong hints for sure. The 18z GFS took TRI below freezing at 294 and didn't get back above freezing until 384. Couple of days with highs in the teens. The GFS has been very cold in the LR. Ensembles 500mb patterns would allow for cold to get pretty far south. Seeing 93-94 and 95-96 show up in analog packages today. @John1122There is 1994 in the analog package. It was in the 6-10 as well.
  4. Carvers Gap
    CMC has done well. It has a cold bias, but decent. Other modeling has been close during that time frame. The way the 12z GEFS and GEPS ensembles looked at 12z, one would expect multiple storms in the east with that look.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Man, would have liked to have seen where the end of that 12z CMC run was heading.
  6. Carvers Gap
    LR looks good. The MJO looks good on most of the CPC plots as well. The ECMWF(bias correction), gets a wee bit too close to phase 6 for my liking. The GEFS basically stalls the MJO on the border of phase 8 in perpetuity. The Weeklies look like background cold phases. The Weeklies do provide an idea of where the Euro MJO is heading - i.e. creates a reasonable bridge from todays plots to the LR. Not a lot to add. A bit of a break in tracking right now. Nearly all ensembles and the GFS operational show a very active and cold pattern beginning around the 15th or 16th. Cold shot on tap early next week. I do have my eye on that, but don't see much more than back end flurries at the moment. Looks like a warm-up from the 13th-15th. Again, LR modeling has been pretty decent since early December. So, hopefully they reel in yet another good timeframe for tracking winter storms.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. I had just about given up - had given up!!! Same here in terms of snow. Nice to get on the board for this winter. What a wild week. Glad you got some snow!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    And even more crazy, temps were in the 70s in the eastern Valley on Jan 1.
  9. Carvers Gap
    95-96 is sneaking in there. This snow in middle TN is super similar to one of those storms, just displaced to the west a bit. We have had two forum snowstorms in one week. The high temp was 78 here on Saturday. What a flip!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Good pasting. About ~1" of snow. Will take. On the board for the season....
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, they are money up there. If we had to name a snow capital for the forum area, it would be in my top two. Sits at 2,400' and has a latitude advantage and gets lake effect snow to some extent on northwest flow. The snow totals they have for storms rivals some cities out West.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Snowing pretty good here (north side of Bays) as well. Ground is white. I didn't even know it was snowing until I read @1234snow's post. LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS(several previous runs as well).....What really has me intrigued is the parade of storms with relatively BN temps in place - cold weather plus an active STJ. Beginning around the 15th(210), I count roughly 4 systems out to 330. Models hasn't finished running yet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The map that @Bigbaldposted above is wild. It will change here at 18z most assuredly. But this is what was under that at 500. I know you know this, East Knox, but for those new to the forum...this is just for fun since it was so extreme.
  15. Carvers Gap
    That look is bringing the hammer.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Textbook winter pattern. If I lived on the EC, I would be licking my chops - neg tilt trough over NA. YAS!!!!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Pattern looks great from the 15th to roughly the 30th. Get the EPS looking like what Holston posted, things could be rocking. What a turn around from last week. The 30d map on the Euro Weeklies is BN for temps and roughly AN for precip for the forum area. As we have seen this week, AN precip and BN temps is a good combo.
  18. Carvers Gap
    15-30th looks really good. Not guaranteeing anything, but about as good as it gets. Let's hope we can reel it in.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That northwest trend yesterday told the story. Have seen some light and scattered flurries. That should be it for this storm unless it reorganizes. Euro absolutely nailed this system, including the late trend which split the system over E TN. Cold ensues! Next round after mid-month. Time for a break in tracking! Two in one week is work. Congratulations to those in middle TN on their snow!
  20. Carvers Gap
    That would be extreme for sure. Pretty sure that is with zero snow on the ground. We will have to watch as LR modeling is trying to spin-up storms after mid-month. With so much cold in Canada, wouldn't take much. For now, definitely fantasy land...but maybe not for my pipes!!!
  21. Carvers Gap
    I am feeling a dry slot in my near future. Quick rain/snow shower and that should be it for MBY.
  22. Carvers Gap
    300+ 12z GFS is what can happen if a slp deepens with cold air in place. Teens below zero to end that run.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 12z GFS isn't going to back down not matter what! Can't decide whether to chuckle or not.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Man there are a crap ton of people watching this thread relative to our forum. Awesome to see.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains. That said, it upped total precip. Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley. If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast. If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom).
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