Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Looks like a Yukon block on the LR GEFS at 18z. @nrgjeffis that what that is or am I misreading that?
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The 12z GEFS brought back the colder shot (6z was cold...0z was COLD).
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It may or may not work out, but that is a nasty looking shot of cold showing up again on modeling this morning. I don't think lower elevations are out of the game. We just haven't seen a crazy March in a while. Even recently, I have seen light, measurable snow into April IMBY. It may well flip back warm during that time frame, but the speed of the flip on modeling could indicate significant cold relative to norms. We'll see. Still have a couple of weeks until that time frame gets here. A lot can and will change at that time. For now, we have the 0z GEFS/EPS/Euro Weeklies on board. It could bust. The much discussed 10th-20th timeframe will not verify as cold or snowy as modeled at range.
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Yep. I think that is what modeling is showing.
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New is left and old is right. Day 14-21. Cold is centered after March 2nd or 3rd. The overall configuration at 500 is a snowstorm look. Lots of cutters, but one of those cutters could likely force a bowling ball underneath.
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Major flip on the Euro Weeklies around week 2.5. They have turned quite cold. Of course, it could be a mirage, but those are some abrupt changes that are showing up on LR modeling. At least to me, that is a pretty significant storm signal which we don't always see during March these days. I don't think winter is over. It may take a break for a couple of weeks, but that looks not warm for early March.
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Unless I am just looking at the wrong slides, that is a fairly significant flip by the 12z GEFS post 300 to a cooler/colder pattern and away from the torch.
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And if the EPS is correct, we go from a flood pattern and back to a huge eastern PAC block which would set the stage for some cold wx in March. The GEFS is less enthused. I am a lot less bullish on a warm and early spring than I was a week ago. We are definitely going to see a warmup prior to any cold along with massive return flow and moisture.
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Just looking at the CFSv2 and the EPS with the east Pac/AK block...winter is not over IMHO. That is a BIG east Pac block at the end of the EPS run. CFSv2 is quite cold looking mid-late March. I would not be surprised (to each @John1122) to see a rogue snowstorm in March.
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Moderate to heavy dusting of snow IMBY.
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...In addition to the potential light event this weekend and the window around the 20th(the storm AFTER the cutter).
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Looks like the last window will be just after March 10th. Yep, I think there is one last gasp.
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Keep an eye on what comes after the big cutter in the Plains. Thunder here...and you know what might come next. TIMS models activation may be in order. Modeling is showing a system to our SE(low road) right after that cutter. The northwest trend is the real deal during late Feb.
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Time to get this thread started...and yes, spring is FINALLY on modeling after the 20th. Onions are in the ground. We have about 170 planted - combo of two varieties of yellow(Vidalia variety) and one batch of red. We use a hoop house and cold frames. We used all of our onions from last year's garden. We have learned to dry and store them. Garlic from December is looking good. It was planted late due to a late delivery(labor shortage on the supplier end of things). Lettuce seedlings are up along with broccoli, chard, and cauliflower. Interestingly, I got a bad batch of lettuce seeds this year - I think or it was just user error! The were packaged for 2020 and then relabelled for 2022. Lettuce seeds don't keep as long which explains the 2% germination rate which I got first go around. Sadly, the bad seed was from a reputable supplier. I reordered from another supplier, and had about 98% germination rates by day 2 or 3. With grocery prices sky high, I might actually be able to compete with store prices this year. Though I doubt it, American farmers grow food in plentiful amounts and cheaply! It is truly amazing to walk into a grocery store.
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Man, the ground here is barely unfrozen. I still see ice on small creeks where I run. The ground is not warm at TRI..maybe extreme south facing slopes, but otherwise, the ground is super cold.
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12z Euro 500 configuration is way different. LOL. On to the next suite...consensus denied.
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Looks like the Euro may swing and miss. Trough is too positively tilted. Let's see if something still pops.
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The northern stream is quicker and southern stream slower at 63
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And the 12z Euro is rolling...
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It is an odd, double barrel low set-up. Honestly, it has been a while since we have seen that set-up east of the mountains. The lee side low is a good set-up in and of itself. The energy transfer to the coast could cause the snow to go poof over E TN or it could accentuate it depending on where it fires. I will tag @John1122who will know the answer to the question most likely. I would have to dig back through the threads. I usually just make a mental note that double barrel lows are infamous and notorious regarding modeling being able to accurate depict them. Seems like I remember one where the lee side low was weak and we didn't get anything, and maybe one where the lee side low trended into an inland runner.
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This is a super similar set-up to how middle and west TN have scored...just displace the primary east of the Apps(instead of the eastern valley and secondary to the coast(instead of western NC). The really headache is accounting for two mountain ranges(the Plateau and Apps) being under the western precip shield instead of just the Plateau. The 12z set-up could be a combo of orographic lift and downsloping, one replacing the other depending on location. Fun times. LOL.
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Looks like the lee side is a realistic solution. We need it to fire to our SE vs directly to our east.
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The 12z ICON has the same set-up but weaker. So, that is the ICON, CMC, and GFS at 12z which have a similar setup and the RGEM looks like it would have gotten there as well. Time to watch trends at this point.
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The 12z CMC now has a similar set-up with an RGEM-esque look. It has less over E TN, as the inland feature fires a bit late. That said, pretty much the same synoptic set-up as at the GFS which makes both solutions a bit more believable. We do have to take into account the GFS amping things a bit too much.
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If you live in E TN, you want the flow to back as the front passes. You combine that backing with orographic lift due to the Plateau and you get a deformation band o sorts in E TN. Again, I am still wary of this set-up as modeling juggling an enormous amount of plates for this set-up. This is a timing set-up which is a royal pain to follow. We need the northern system to catch the southern stream energy which is kind of stalled. We have to hit the jackpot in terms of confluence. If the southern stream is too fast, we get a weak frontal passage with light snow. To slow, and it could legit cut(though highly unlikely)
