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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    That is wild. Cold appears to be outdoing modeling if that is the case.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Keep the lights on!!! I think spring will wait until after the 20th at least...but it is kinda headed toward spring at that point anyway with the days getting longer and being almost March. I think Arkansas actually may still see some winter after this even if modeling is even close to correct. I have a batch of onions to put in my hoop house. I need it to get warm at some point. LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The old school mammalian version of Dr No!
  4. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerbringing the goods with the mountain torque stuff. I couldn't find my way out of a paper bag if trying to discuss MT. @nrgjeff, man, was working on this post when you posted.... 1. I may have actually misread Larry on this one. Here is his quote regarding March. He is not overly cold for February BTW. This is just relating to the PV discussion: Changes in the circumpolar vortex at the stratospheric level (10MB), with a transfer of coldest values to Canada, might allow a comeback assault of frigid air at some point between March 1 and 10. But the sun is getting higher in the sky, and opportunities to build snow cover after this week appear limited. 2. The 50mb anomaly on the 18z GFS looks pretty jostled. 3. The GFS has had a clipper around the 204 range and is moving it forward in time. It has had that for days. 4. Here is the d5-10 500mb pattern and the d10-15 500mb pattern. If the EPS is correct, the pattern should mature in the d10-15 range. 5. CANSIPS model from WxBell shows a cold February(edit!) which looks awfully similar to the GEFS and EPS. With February often being an active weather month, hard not to like that. It has AN precip for the month over the TN Valley, but the event tomorrow may skew that a bit. The CPC today has the 6-14 w/ BN precip. That said, sometimes cold/wintry patterns have BN precip OR the pattern is just dry! 6. And the only teleconnection that matters.... Punxsutawney Phil, Poppy, Mount Joy Minnie and Octoraro Orphie gave their predictions today, with a nearly unanimous prognostication for six more weeks of winter. Only one -- Orphie -- is calling for an early spring. https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-punxsutawney-phil-and-lancaster-countys-own-groundhogs-predicted-on-groundhog-day-2022-photos/article_5457d342-8421-11ec-9f66-bfca0220a202.html I hope Phil has his crap together on this...
  5. Carvers Gap
    I don’t think it will be bone dry. Man, I could be wrong. Usually colder patterns have some dry wx embedded. Cold requires dry air masses for the most part in order to sustain the cold. I don’t trust details in modeling right now. The overall long wave pattern computer modeling has been stellar in the LR this winter. Really, the only thing modeling has missed is they flipped erroneously to a baser warm pattern for Feb. Feb may finish AN for temps, but it will be the first 4-5 days which do it. February looks like a battleground month for this area...some rain and some snow. I think the East is currently completing the dry spell which was forecast. With the heavy rain we are about to get, we need about 5-7 days to dry and/or thaw out. After the 10th(with the way the tough is aligned and assuming modeling is very likely over doing the depth of the trough), could be multiple systems at that point. I would be shocked if we don’t see 1-2 big storms after the 10th in the East That is a big time set up at 500. @Holston_River_Rambler, Cosgrove mentioned on FB that the strat may be getting jostled. Now, I admittedly skimmed that post. Have u seen anything of the sort? If so...spring may start...and then stop! Of note, the last part of spring looks a bit chilly on the cfs. Makes me wonder if El Niño is about to show up. LOL Lastly, if you all have not read math/met’s post on the mountain wave event, please do so. It is just a few posts above this one.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS is honking after d10. The d10-16 snow mean fro NE TN is 4"+ which is significant at this range. That is a big bump upward. @Wurbus, I have to hit the road again. Any big storms skewing that, or is that pretty consistent? You have a good eye or those individuals mean trends.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Well, I never posted more. LOL. We are in a lull in the eastern forum areas. Meanwhile, the western forum areas will be fighting to keep the lights on due to ice. IF....IF...the 12z ensembles of both the GEFS and EPS are correct, we have a good pattern at 500 following this storm. Again, I think the time to watch is Feb 10-20th. The EPS looks particularly good as it puts the storm track right on the eastern seaboard or slightly inland.
  8. Carvers Gap
    "Cold November" correlation paying off big time this year.
  9. Carvers Gap
    MW posts are some of my favorites. For those new to the forum, @Math/Metis an expert. As or the LR, I am going to keep it short(amazing, right?) so as not to bury that great MW post in the thread. The LR right after the 10th looks really good - as in really good. I do caution that pattern is about 8 days out, so that could still change. The configuration of the trough over the East would be quite a wintry pattern for however long that look lasts. See my ensemble post graphics from yesterday as a reference. For now, we get the pattern and worry about the details (storms in the pattern). Obviously one can never guarantee anything in the weather, and I will avoid that when at all possible...but that is a big time look. Will post more later.
  10. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS trends SE but still has the storm this weekend. It would not surprise me to see this trend off the board. What I do like is the clipper fest behind it. That is very 14-15ish. Would be a nice way to end the season.
  11. Carvers Gap
    UK and Duke are just juggernauts. Auburn is as well. LSU has potential. Tennessee has to go to a guard heavy line-up or one of our bigs has to get hot. And I do think JF is going to finish the year with a flurry of good games. He is a Kingsport player. He is tough because of that. This might be one year where the Vols have not peaked early. TN doesn't have the talent of other teams, but they like to fight(and get into fights). That will help come tourney time.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I addition to that second system which slides by just after, there is a parade of northern stream energy as well which would likely result in some northwest flow/clipper type events. We want the GFS to be right about where it is placing the battle zone which is slightly to our south. As Jeff notes, it will likely come back north some. February rarely has prolonged suppression issues(speaking of the pattern and not this weekend's system).
  13. Carvers Gap
    There is a piece of energy trailing that weekend system. Looks like there are two tightly spaced chances with SLPs passing to our south. Gotta get that slp south of here which those two looks do. Now the CMC does have the second look as well. The CMC is more progressive and washed out, and it may indeed be right. The GFS amping things makes me slightly distrustful. That said, is has been placing SLPs and systems in the right spot...just giving them too much juice in the process.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The CMC sends an ensuing hp a little further south(after the ice storm) and suppresses that buckle which forces that slp out to sea. Just can't tell if the GFS is moving to the CMC and this 12z GFS run is just a snapshot of its transition to a solution much further SE...OR if it has something. It really has wanted to put something into play during that time frame.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The thing I am noticing is a buckle(some might call it a weak SER or even just a seasonal upward curve of the jet along the coast) right after that system comes through which causes the ice storm. The front moves slowly enough that it drags its heals in the GOM. That allows another wave to form and head northward. The GFS has a tendency to be amped, and this could be right in the wheelhouse of its own bias, but we'll see. Anyway, if something forms underneath that buckle, it is going to try to gain some latitude.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is going to try the same thing. It has that little 500mb vortex (much weaker) pushing north of the stalled front along the GOM. Whether it amounts to anything...not sure on the Canadian run.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS....And there is another low right behind it.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Great look, now we just need to see it get some support. Just looking at the configuration of the 500 pattern after this brief warm-up(warm-up for some....for others it is ice), supports a storm lifting almost due north out of the GOM. Now where the launch pad for that storm will be(genesis thereof...) is the million dollar question. The GFS is likely correcting towards other modeling. So, it is entirely possible the 18z run will be suppressed further due to that correction. That said, there have been some operationals which are taking a slightly inland track, but are weaker. This run pops a stronger slp. The synoptics are there for a storm to press northward. I would guess this storm will possibly originate somewhere between Mobile and say Ocala. For us that difference in origin is hammer time or a whiff.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS...and there it is.
  20. Carvers Gap
    It looks pretty locked in...I could be wrong. I could see the transition line between rain and ZR move around 50 miles or so. I think the threat to western areas is fairly dialed in. Now, if that line pushes into BNA...that is the question.
  21. Carvers Gap
    As we watch what the 6z GFS had this morning in the LR...it might be worth again noting that the GFS nailed this storm in the d14-16 range. It would waffle around a lot in terms of placement, but just an impressive job by the GFS. It is simply uncanny how close that looks to what was placed in the banter thread about 2 weeks ago. Hats off to American modeling this winter.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Here are the 0z EPS(left) and 0z GEFS(right) for d10-15 in the LR. That is a great look for a snowstorm. The 6z GEFS looks a bit better as it has just a hint of a SER(prevents suppression of storm systems).
  23. Carvers Gap
    It is really important to look at the surface when looking at the LR, especially with a trough which is positively tilted. The 500mb maps will not tell the entire story. LR modeling continues to keep this region in the ice box for the next 2-3 weeks. We have more cold air than we have had during previous winters over NA. I suspect an at times cold, normal precip, and wintry pattern for some in the forum area through the first 2/3 of Feb. I could be wrong...and I will always preface a monthly forecast with that last statement.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles look good, which when past d10 this winter, have been very reliable. There are some warm-ups between extended cold shots. Operational models are going to be all over the place as we get closer to spring. Eventually we are just going to get to spring! LOL. Looks to me like we are going to end-up with a positively tilted trough over the mid-section of the US and the eastern US. That is over-running city for whoever is north of that cold from. I need to go back and look at 14-15, but pretty sure that was similar except it was more northern stream stuff. This weekend will be storm one of that setup. I think the pattern, absent a strong MJO signal, is going to simply repeat what it has been doing. With the lag that accompanies the MJO, we may well scoot by most of the month in this pattern. For eastern folks, we need a strong cutter to drive the boundary southeastward or a 50/50 low to pop. Either way, we continue to see winter produce across the forum. Will be interesting to see how far southeast the boundary is pushed for the TR/FR system. Then, we have the sneaky system Sunday that could be nuisance variety, but interesting.
  25. Carvers Gap
    From the NWS Office in Memphis: National Weather Service Memphis TN 516 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 .UPDATE... Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022/ DISCUSSION... Well it looks like we will be dealing with a fairly significant icing event for the Mid South later on this week. Today will be another great day for the region as we warm into 60s again. Today will be a great day to enjoy the weather as things will go down hill Wednesday through Friday as a front will approach the region. A few showers will develop tonight and should continue into Wednesday. There could be a small break Wednesday before things really go left. The arctic front will start to nose into the NE AR/Mo Bootheel late in the day and temps there will start to fall. Wednesday night through Thursday night is when the greatest chance for impactful winter weather across the region. Guidance is coming in more aggressive with the cold air and that in turn is causing forecast ice accumulations to go up. Soundings look very messy for the Mid South with several hours of Freezing rain and sleet across the area. Some of the total are downright nasty, but some of that is sleet. We have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include more of W TN, E AR, and a small portion of MS. I am very concerned with the icing issues that this system could pose as it could be fairly significant with numerous power outages and very hazardous driving conditions. We will have to monitor for the upgrade to Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings...in all likelihood they would be Ice Storm Warnings as snow will not be the dominant precip type. We are looking at the possibility of 0.1 up to a half inch of ice possible across portions of the Mid South when its all said and done. Again, the time frame for the most significant icing looks to be late Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Please stay tuned to the forecast because this is a very conditional situation and any fluctuations in temperature or placement of the arctic front will be the difference in you seeing a very cold rain or a significant ice storm. Please stay weather aware as we try to sort out all of the details over the next 24 hours. Before all of the icing issues we will have heavy rainfall on the warm side of this system. Up to 3 inches of rain over a good portion of the area during the course of this event which may cause localized flooding. Precipitation will taper off Thursday night with temps in the 20s by morning under a brisk north wind. Below normal temps and dry weather expected for the remainder of the forecast period with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s.
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