Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Well, let's enjoy 2-3 cold shots to start January before we worry about an indefinite torch. We could end up wishing our lives away for the perfect pattern. Bottom line, winter is not over yet.
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18z GFS loses the first system, but "found" the second one on the 7th. It is within the realm of reason that the second front could be cold enough to allow for snow if the cold pushes enough. Modeling definitely favoring the middle and western parts of the forum areas. VERY similar to last winter in that the SER will fight east of the Plateau. Need the STJ to become more active. These fronts are so strong, they are suppressing everything, but when the rebound to warmth occurs, it is nearly equally strong.
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Pretty much the story for December.
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The big red ball(aka the AH) break it? LOL.
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I would add that the transition to that a transition to a new pattern is likely underway or at least a significant pattern disruption. Cold fronts will press eastward into anomalously warm air. That in turn will set the state for possibly two severe events, before cold begins to surge eastward. Looks like a 2-3 day warm-up after the first big front not he 3rd before the next from moves through. Again, I suspect the new pattern would be cold building in the West and pushing eastward. The 12z EPS would imply the cold dives into the Plains and spreads eastward which means less modified cold. Now, one caveat....the EPS rotates all of the cold eastward, completely emptying the Mountain West of its cold(remains seasonal though). While I do mention a pattern change/disruption, if that trough simply rotates through, we need the trough to reload and the western ridge to hold, or it may simply reload the old pattern. MJO will have a say in this.
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The 12z EPS is now, IMHO, advertising a pattern change. I have been holding off on that terminology for a bit. Indeed, it looks there will be a new pattern. The transition to that new pattern certainly looks like a dominant EPO/PNA ridge which is a reversal from where we are currently. Is the new pattern a zonal pattern where the trough moves eastward and pulls north? Sure. It the new pattern one where there is very cold air being dumped into the eastern US w/ the EPO/PNA pattern continuing? Sure. And it could be something entirely new. Won't rule out a head fake either. For now, pattern looks good. GEPS and EPS look quite similar. Did the GEFS stop reporting mid-run? My three sources have it paused.
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Really interesting Tweet. 12z GFS certainly reflected that. Watching the GEFS roll as we speak. Seems like modeling likes the AK block but flirts with re-establishing the Aleutian High. For at least a time, I think the AK looks likely. Great find. Thanks for the share.
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Been out enjoying the gorgeous weather before big changes next week. Actually was able to wear shorts and a t-shirt on my run today, a rarity during late December. So far, modeling looks pretty similar to overnight runs. Didn't have a lot to add this morning and don't have a lot to add right now. Cold shot set to arrive on Jan 3rd. Modeling has been remarkably consistent with this time frame for nearly 10-12 days. A ridge slides through after that. Modeling differs on when the next cold shot arrives, but likey the 7th through the 10th. Definitely can see winter on mid and long range modeling. That is a significant change from two weeks ago.
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In addition to the sever wx tomorrow and tomorrow night(I leave severe wx discussion to those folks as I don't track it much), we may get some of @Holston_River_Rambler's rainfall tomorrow. We need it. Just planted my garlic(late due to supply chain issues), so the water will be nice. Just hope we don't need a boat! TRI still on the lighter side of amounts as we have been for several months.
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If you need a snow fix this morning, here is a link to Star Valley Weather. Star Valley is in western WY. The writer of that blog is a veteran met who spent some time in Norman. I don't know him, but stumbled across this great site a few years ago. Just click the weather cameras tab. You will see cameras for many places in that region. Two weeks ago, the ground was brown there which is very unusual. https://www.starvalleyweather.com
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, having a couple of guys out is going to be problematic, but Barnes will make sure the game gets played. Winning in Bama has always been tough for TN. UT plays at Bama, LSU, and UK during the first three weekends of the SEC season....all ranked, all on Saturday, and all on the road. Rob Lewis mentioned that the SEC did UT no favors...I concur. Then, we scheduled Texas for the last weekend of January in Austin. Brutal schedule for January. If we can stay slightly above 500, that would be an accomplishment given the SOS. If Memphis hadn't cancelled, UT would have played Memphis, Zona, and Bama in consecutive games. Barnes doesn't shy away from great competition. We have already played Villanova, Texas Tech, UNC, Colorado(in Boulder) and the aforementioned Arizona team. -
LR looks good overnight, more of a status quo when compared to modeling yesterday. Still not sure I trust the MJO, but looks good. Question will be does it keep progressing into one and two or loop back into 6 and then start the process over again? @jaxjagmanmentioned (I think...correct me if I am wrong, Jax) that the waters in the equatorial regions of the western Pacific are warming from Nina levels. Think I read that the subsurface was very warm. That may well allow the MJO to progress into phases 8-1 much easier. The storm next weekend has always been a bit of a push for MBY. Front is too strong, and it is OTS. Front is too weak and cuts west. We really need the front to slow down once it exits our region and drag the trailing front into the GOM. The GFS was getting by with that solution, because it was likely (and possibly erroneously) modeling a weaker cold front. That allowed the front to wash out and essentially stall. Flow backed just enough to allow for a storm. Now, that front is blasting through and it is cold chasing rain. Still, I wouldn't give up on that window just yet. Not uncommon for storms to be lost in this time frame. Agree with @John1122 that it is often a sequence of storms which eventually gives us a shot. I think we are entering a pattern where the cold loads out West and surges eastward. How long that lasts? TBD. Again, when severe is seen in the valley, it is not uncommon to see a cold/stormy pattern follow a couple of weeks later.
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My lights are still on, so I know that isn't true! LOL.
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18z GEFS looks fantastic. Has the cold shot on Jan 9/10. Two trackable windows right now. No assurances, but better than watching the big red ball over Dutch Harbor.
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Will be interesting to see where modeling goes tomorrow. Need to see a day or two more of this before I would buy what they were cooking today - huge EPO/PNA ridge, multiple Arctic fronts, prolonged cold/snowy pattern. I remember a few years back where we had a great looking pattern headed into Jan on modeling....then the models missed a strat split(which occurred) and modeling went sideways.
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The great Chattanooga teleconnection. Like clockwork.
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Either that or they are just letting us all go play in the backyard for a bit to get some energy out, and then will call us in for dinner when gets out of hand.
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@John1122, that is your pattern, man, on the EPS after 300.
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LOL. That is a legit EPO/PNA ridge at 354. Models are all over the place this suite. Not sure which one my money is one(probably wise to take the warmest), but I hope the EPS is on to something and not on something!
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The 12z EPS is bound and determined to flip the PNA pattern. Whether that occurs or not, I give it an "A+" for the effort. In all seriousness, looks like the 12z CFSv2 and GEFS leaned towards the EPS...correct or not? Again, the irony of the EPS is that it is now a +PNA/-EPO pattern after 300. Take a look at the surface temps...cold is cutting under those 500 heights.
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Good thing...the EPS is at the point of the season where it begins to have lots of weight. If the tables were turned and we were in a cold pattern that the GEFS was continuing and the EPS turned warm...which one would you think might have the most chance of being right?
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Through roughly 300, it has kind of doubled down on its look....consistent with its MJO look as well. BIG, BIG difference is the AH is basically gone when compared to other ensembles.
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The 12z Euro doesn't feed back with the western slp(off the coast of California). Overall, good look from that run. We will see what the ensemble says.....
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Euro looks a lot like the cmc at 500 and GFS for the 3rd storm...best of both worlds.
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So looking at both the GEFS and GEPS finish their runs after 300. Both show a cold pattern at 500 for much of the US between the Rockies and the Apps. That looks more like their MJO plots. Just wanted to add that addendum. The GEFS looks more like the EPS now(which was a good look at 0z). Maybe another cold shot around the 10th.
