Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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For kicks and giggles....The ever cold CFSv2 extended is working to top itself with each run. The control is even more extreme with some 5 day time frames at twenty-five below normal. The mean is warmer, but still very cold w/ some huge departures.
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That is what I was thinking as well - meaning Canadian cold would work.
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Agree. We just don’t want the 12z EPS solution which flushed cold out of NA. The GEPS and GEFS looked really good. Get some storms undercutting that ridge, and we would be in business. Not sure I buy the EPS solution at this point. It looked similar, just a different variation.
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The 18z GEFS is a very cold winter pattern with a strong EPO/AK ridge. No idea if that continues during future runs. That looked like a very stable pattern. That is a total reversal of the current pattern. Not sharing a foxhole with the GEFS, but fun to look at.
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AK block at 288 set to empty the Arctic into the Lower 48 if it doesn't form a shallow trough.
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270+ Major winter storm under way for far western areas of the forum ice/snow.
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Awesome to see you posting! Yeah, tempted to stay up and watch that run!
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1060 hp in southern Alberta at 210 on the 18z GFS.
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Another nice look on the 18z GFS at 102.
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On the plus side, the CFSv2 has now flipped Jan to seasonal to BN here. As @Mr. Kevincorrectly noted, where the CFS goes towards right before January is often telling. The CFSv2 extended(comes out 4x per day) is pretty cold for most of its run at 12z...but keeping' it real, it is cold pretty much all of the time. It is the ying to the EPS yang.
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Nice PNA/EPO signature on the 12z EPS. It does create a chinook which scours a lot of the cold out of NA. Always something! As each trough pushes through the ridge reforms slightly west of its previous position. It may well be that a formidable EPO eventually builds and cold empties back into NA in a pinwheel fashion as cold wraps around the vortex over Greenland. Looks like a good pattern but a period of moderation over central and western Canada. Would be our luck to finally get a good pattern and the source region be less than optimal. The GEFS and GEPS look much better in terms of source regions. I suspect there would be enough cold given it is January and AN air masses to our north are still often BN if they can get here in decent shape.
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The 12z GEFS has similar look(to the GEPS) but further west. Both looks will work in the LR. Those looks, if we can get split flow, are excellent for winter in the east. Big red ball is in the right place for now. LOL. @Blue Moon, keep us updated on the severe!
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If you all want to see a MONSTER EPO/PNA, take a look at the GEPS at 12z in the LR. Wow. That'll do it.
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12z GFS and CMC and their ensembles continue to look good. Looks like several opportunities are on the table. The ensembles are quite cold.
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Was just digging back through the December thread, pretty amazing to see modeling pinpoint this upcoming timeframe for both cold and rain. @Holston_River_Rambler, the EPS may have hit this rain at max range. If the cold arrives on Sunday/Monday, it was hit at max range as well by almost all globals. The CMC may have again shown its worth. Again, modeling has done really well this winter with the overall longwave pattern at 500. It wasn't so great during November, but has been decent since then. The Euro Weeklies may have had the Jan 3 shot around December 13th. I can remember when modeling had almost no skill past 7-8 days. Now, it is still pretty sketch after those timeframes, but decent work by those 0s and 1s.
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Finally starting to see Jan 3-10 timeframe come into focus just a little. Looks cold and stormy at times from the MS eastward. Just how far that come southward is up for grabs. With this setup, I tend to favor west and middle forum areas just a little bit more. In general, in the LR modeling has a similar look to the past few days. Just tough to tell if that is the look or if it is transitioning to another pattern altogether. Easy to look at a transitional pattern and think it is the next pattern. I am 50/50 that we are seeing a pattern transition to a more favorable Pacific with some sort of smorgasbord of a -WPO and and EPO ridge(potentially AK block)...OR just a relaxation of the current pattern(and then a return to an Aleutian high. What I am seeing this morning is a more traditional La Nina high off the West coast. That would allow the cold to push in waves. Very much agree with Flash that this looks a lot like last year. I definitely note that cold fronts are stalling just short of the Apps or at the Apps. The good thing this time....it is January and the cold is stronger. Great pattern discussion above. Of note, both the ECMWF and GEFS MJO plots depict a stalled MJO on the 7/8 border...hard not to like that. The actual MJO itself is almost in 8 today. There is a risk it could loop back to 6 in the very LR. But Daniel Boone made some great points about the water warming in the 7/8/1 regions and potentially allowing the MJO to move into those areas. Lots of uncertainty, but the fickle MJO looks decent today. Oddly, the GEFS has come around...While it is not to be trusted in MJO IMHO opinion, the model easily has the best look for winter and its LR is finally in sync with its actual MJO look. The ECMWF isn't too far from that look. I alway note that when discussion veers away from the MJO, it must be in decent territory or headed that way. When it is the main subject of discussion, our wx pattern is hot garbage. LOL.
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Bit of an uptick in the 18 GEFS snow totals. 3.4" or NE TN which is decent. 2" north of 40 for a good chunk of the state of TN....I mean it ain't zero. LOL.
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Welcome to the party happy hour of the GEFS. The 18z GEFs is now cold - very cold at times. It reflects a similar look now to the 12z EPS. Slightly displace westward -EPO. Y'all remember those GEPS runs from a few days ago at the surface? Like those in regards to temps. @John1122, looks like a more traditional placement of the eastern Pacific high during a La Nina don't you think? If it will not retrograde into the Aleutians.....
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Just gave a quick look at the teleconnections on the EPS: EPO: goes positive and descends to neutral (looks strongly negative on maps...might be a false reading or it is just slightly displaced westward) PNA: very negative and ascends to barely positive by the end of the run (a BIG reversal) NAO: negative and goes positive AO: negative and goes positive WPO: negative and slow ascending. First half of January is a month of transition. The NAO quite likely takes longer than modeled to flip - stubborn feature once in place. Wouldn't surprise me to see it return. Overall, looks like a PNA pattern at least temporarily.
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Biggest thing right now, and the GEFS has caved since yesterday at this time, is the elimination/severe weakening of the Aleutian high. How long it stays gone is anyone's guess. One step at a time right now. My guess(and it is a guess) is that we see the Pac drive the pattern through mid-Jan. Then, it is up for grabs.
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Biggest thing is we are seeing the pattern reshuffle. We can see the transition. We just can't really see past the transition period with any rigor at this point. I definitely see some good things and things which would bring back warmth after mid-Jan. I just don't know past mid-month. But the first half of the month should be seasonal to slightly BN after the 3rd which is indeed cold since it is January. Now, just have to wait for the details to come into focus. IMHO, the thing we really need is an active STJ with frequent systems undercutting the western ridge. The STJ is the key moving forward....otherwise, going to be dry during those cold snaps. I am 50/50 on whether it will bring enough precip to up our chances for winter wx.
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I am sure I do. I normally don't look at them. I usually just look at the various regions on the map and eyeball it. I only do this as a hobby, so eyeballing usually has to do. I will give it a look later this evening. Just spitballing, In the LR looks like EPO is good, PNA neutral, NAO strongly negative. AO was likely heading negative late in the run. Looked very similar to the 18z GFS, but not that extreme. If it is going to hold, we need the AK block or EPO from the 18z GFS to lock. John is on the money with that post he just posted. He is the guru when it comes to unspoiled local climate data and Pacific patterns - I know of none better. Truly, we want cold being directed into the area and just let the warm GOM waters do their trick. The cold is the match. Gotta have it.
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The GFS has been all over the place, and I mean all over the place. Just needed to say that before mentioning that the 18z GFS is an excellent winter pattern. And the pattern switch/relaxation has remained around Jan 3 for the past 10-12 days(noted that before). The real question is the duration of the pattern/relaxation which brings waves of cold every 2-4 days. Best guess is that we have a couple of weeks after Jan 3rd of cold/snow. That is the window at the moment. I think folks on this subforum have done a really good job of tracking that window. And let's be honest, that is about how long those windows last in this area, 1-2 weeks of cold at a time. Would not surprise me in the least to see Cosgrove's thaw after that...and then maybe another chance later in the season if we are fortunate per his forecast. I will also echo John's post about '84, the way these troughs are amplifying, an extreme shot of cold is on the table(single digits is extreme in my book). Just not comfortable in floating that timeframe quite yet.
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Pretty sure that we did have an SSW(not huge, but significant enough to perturb the 30mb and 50mb levels) back in mid-December if I remember correctly. SSWs don't have to result in the splitting of the PV in order to be a strat warm. One could make the case that the cold coming in early Jan is a direct result of that.
