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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z GFS wants to go with a couple of light wintery events next week. We will see. For whatever reason, I like the look of the Jan 7 system.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I got 6" of snow on that run. Must be a heckuva SE wind on the run!!! Legit might be a good day to head to Roan Mountain.
  3. Carvers Gap
    During winter, snow often follows closely behind storms here in NE TN. Always amazed when it occurs. As for the LR, not much has changed. Looks like seasonal to BN through the first half of January. So without beating a dead horse, major pattern shift/relaxation still on track for Jan 3. After that, we will see 2-4 cold shots with warm interludes. Spacing and timing will determine our fate regarding winter wx. After mid-January, we will have to see. Kind of two lines of thinking there...the Pacific is favorable and a trough stays in the East or the trough reverts back West. As it is, plenty of cold and snow opportunities from the Rockies to the Apps for the next few weeks(north of I-40). The NWS map today alone should show that winter is far from over. Strong Nina climatology in play right now with the cold arriving during the first half of winter. Would not be surprised to see us break for spring early if Nina persists, though I do think we see one last period of cold/snow before winter finally exits in Feb. Sounds like Cosgrove, but looks likely nonetheless. Now, if Nino takes over with a quick flip...all bets are off on that.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Great looking wave along an strong cold front around 150 on the 0z GFS. That is a feature that easily could be found along that front. Other than that, too tired to comment after that abomination of a forward progress call. See you all tomorrow. Go Vols!
  5. Carvers Gap
    So true...LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Christmas Ale isn't going to ease the burn from that one.
  7. Carvers Gap
    LOL. What a terrible call....well, at least all of the mustard (and water) stayed in the stands. Cause you know somebody was tempted.
  8. Carvers Gap
    While the Vols were getting the shaft, MRX has issued this statement about Sunday night. Gives a bit of credence to our discussion I think.
  9. Carvers Gap
    When the coal gas plant had a "problem" that was the term that was coined. That 18z GFS was a process upset for someone to my west. Good opening drive for sure. GFS with a clipper type system a few days later on the 7th. Been a while since we have seen one of those.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Process upset.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Near my house, so we know this solution is legit - KNOW IT! LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Need a PNA/EPO ridge and some more Tillman/Hooker.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Wow, man. Glad you all are out of the NICU. Amazing what the NICU can do. Also, had no idea you all got flooded out. Glad to see you posting, man.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS coming in with a full fledged snowstorm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is slightly slower than that great looking GEFS run, but gets there a couple of days later in the LR. Only difference is the EPS retrogrades the trough westward vs just building the PNA ridge in place like the GEFS does. Whether that ridge stays in place or is transient, just can't tell as we can't see past that time frame. For now a big PNA/EPO ridge is the trend in the LR.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks similar for sure. Snow showers and light snow possible for E TN. Both the 12z GEFS and GEPS now show a Pacific driven pattern. Prior the GEPS didn't have the deep trough that the GEFS does after 300. Does now. Good trends. Cold pattern if true. Vols are on at 3:00PM. GBO.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS....Verbatim, that is a very active winter pattern and is a stellar run. I am currently just looking for opportunities vs narrowing in on details. Remember, I just look for windows where it can snow. We have had exactly zero up to this point this winter. By my count there are four opportunities for wintery weather on that run alone. Now, obviously the details will change, but my takeaway from that run is we are going to be on along the battle lines between cold and warm. If you want to see a big snow(or no snow if you are south of the demarcation line), that is the pattern. Oddly, and I have toyed with this for several weeks. I have often wondered if the NAO was weaker if the western trough would have been allowed eastward. That run was a good test of that theory.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think Sullivan Co is up to 10-12" of total snow for that run. Biggest run of the season from the Plateau eastward.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is truly a good winter run. Cold, chances for snow, and a good overall mean trough in the East. Nice little storm after 300 which shows what can happen if the cold front taps the GOM. Roughly three trackable features. That is a wintry pattern.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the NAM is like the old DGEX. Just gets way too amped outside of 48 hours at times. The 12z RGEM and NAM looked fairly putrid. The 12z GFS was fairly close to something good on the 3rd. It actually turned the corner. That is likely 6-10"(or more) for the mountains if that track were to verify. CMC was more backend snow showers and flurries.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Probably is a wee bit too cold, but the CFSv2 is about as cold as I have ever seen it here - nearly off the charts. I had to do a double take as I thought I clicked on some other parameter than temps. Some of its 5-day means are 25-30F BN in the western forum areas. MJO looks good this AM. Ensembles tend to shallow out troughs a bit more this AM, but let's see if those MJO plots begin to push things a bit. Overall, a good look and cold start to Jan beginning Jan 3.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Overnight partial update: Operationals still flirting with a system early next week... In the LR, 12z GEFS/GEPS both showing a strong EPO signal that could deliver some quite cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies to the Apps. Slight westward trend of the trough, but overall placement the same. We needed that westward trend or that pattern would have simply not reloaded. Don't want to see a continue trend west. Still not convinced we are seeing the new pattern...may still be seeing a transition. We will see what the EPS has in store overnight. There is a sweet spot there that the pattern will have to hit regarding the western ridge alignment. As for '84, not seeing those types of temps on modeling yet, but seeing ensembles produce significant BN departures is noteworthy. However, weak La Nina winters(as has been noted been many on this forum....nearly every day for weeks) tend to have these really extreme temperature flips. There are definitely duds in the mix. But many of the great winters IMBY came with this sort of weak La Nina pattern. Not saying that happens, but worth noting. Jan 85 was historically cold...and then it was spring. Big swings. Still need to reel this in, but the possibilities for decent cold are there. That pattern after 300 on the GEFS has the mechanism to deliver severe cold(2020s style). Long way off in model land, though. Biggest thing analogs do is help recognize a pattern. Great discussion though!
  23. Carvers Gap
    UT played about as well as can be expected. Our lottery pick point guard and top post player were out. The two guys who we never need to miss....both missed the same game. Tough loss.
  24. Carvers Gap
    BTW, I was wondering what the wx was like under that big red ball in the Aleutians. That Kodiak high temp tells the story.
  25. Carvers Gap
    This for you. Joe D'Aleo was commenting the wild swings in Alaska this December. BTW Antartica recorded -144F last winter. Boggles my mind. Anyway... This past Sunday, a record 65 degrees reported at the Kodiak airport was 20 degrees higher than the previous high temperature record of 45 degrees set on Dec. 26, 1984, the National Weather Service reported.
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