Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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12z Euro has less precip in the NW quadrant, but we take that track at this range 10/10 times.
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That is 3/3 with all global ensembles checking-in with a powerful winter storm next weekend. We will see if that look holds. We all know the drill.
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12z Euro has formed a compact slp along the GC. Not sure it has a way to gain latitude. But all three models now have a potent system during the same time frame.
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12z Euro about to give it a run as well?
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Back to reality after two wild model runs....TRI for the month of January so far. Impressive to see the positive departures of the first two days, and now the month is BN in terms of temps and AN for snowfall(those snowfall averages are woefully underdone IMHO BTW). The next week should place temps firmly BN for the month of January. For comparison, here are December and January wx data spreadsheets from TRI.
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That is the second big run of the GFS within this time frame. It had it yesterday at 12z as well.
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Both the 12z GFS and 12z CMC phased systems within about 24 hours of each other. Models might be(and might not be) honing in on a threat during that time frame. If the GFS hadn't stalled that first system, there might have been a second right behind it.
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The 12z CMC also has a big storm. Just toggle over to precip instead of precip type on TT, and you can see it. It is a slightly different evolution of the storm as it hits on the energy next in line after the GFS storm. I think time of day, latitude, and elevation are going to be a important for the borderline storm on Tuesday....Guessing a slopfest IMBY or just cold rain.
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The 12z CMC has a very similar storm but phases with the piece of energy which is following.
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For posterity. Digital Winter Storm "Mo" which is short for molasses - cause it wa moving that slow. There was a similar storm on modeling the other day which hammered eastern North Carolina. This is a bit west of that run.
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LOL. Pretty epic run and I don't say that lightly. No idea if that stays on modeling, but the ICON hinted at this on its 12z run. Modeling has been wanting to churn up a big storm between Tuesday and next weekend...but lately has been leaning towards a weekend event. That storm is on the map so long that it phases with with the next system which is like 2-3 days behind it. Not often we get to see that type of run. Hope it comes back on future runs needless to say!
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And that storm gets cut off. It is going nowhere. It is stalled out.
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That is a whopper of a storm. 966 slp at 204 over the South Carolina beaches. That would surely be big for E TN. That is a great phase.
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Yep. The 12z GFS is a good look for next weekend.
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Not sure how this works out at the surface, but the northern stream and the southern stream are pretty much phased by 174
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The 12z GFS may or may not get there around 160, but that is an entirely different look from that model than compared to 6z.
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The ICON picked-up on this look at 12z as well. It may not phase on this run. But there is a piece of the northern stream and southern stream which are interacting a bit.
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News is a little slow today. The GFS still has the marginal event Tuesday. However, around 150, it is showing some promise regarding next weekend. Let's see where it goes.
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Here is the 6z 3k NAM at hour 3....holds there throughout much of the morning and early afternoon.
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Just went and checked some higher res modeling....Interestingly, the WRF-ARW and 3K NAM have some super light precip hanging around in your area this morning. Super faint on the modeling. Looks like it is just yesterday's system moving out. Very cool though!!! Congratulations on the bonus snow.
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That is wild. Wonder if it is just squeezing out moisture from yesterday due to orographic lift or if there is some connection to the incoming storm? The 6z RGEM sneaks some precip into the western foothills this evening.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, take a look at the trend of the system this evening and tonight since the Jan 19th 12z run of the GFS. Center it on hour 24 of the 6z run this morning. It is almost comical how far it has moved northwest. It has moved from a coastal ice storm to a decent even for almost all of North Carolina.
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1. Ensemble modeling overnight actually improved in the LR - colder and less SER on both the 0z CMCand 0z GFS. We may be able to carry seasonal or even BN temps through the first week of February now. For now the GFS carries the most weight for me. IF that is the new pattern on both of those models, we can work with that. 2. Of note, the system that trended SE for tomorrow...the precip shield now makes into the first layer of E TN counties. Shouldn't be much, but wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the air in both the mountains and maybe in the valleys just next to the mountains. While that shouldn't affect most of us, it does show that modeling was likely in error with the far envelope of eastern solutions. Something to tuck away and remember for the next storm. That storm is likely to affect much more of NC than shown a couple of days ago. The NW trend is legit. 3. MRX has released a statement or next Monday night into Tuesday.... For late Monday night through Tuesday night, deterministic models from the GFS and ECMWF are coming in closer agreement in phasing a little better with a northern stream jet moving across the mid- Atlantic states and a southern stream system moving across the Gulf coast states. The surface low remains fairly far south across the northern Gulf. However, enough phasing of the two systems to spread light precipitation into the region. GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble are in agreement with around 0.25 inch or less of QPF for this event especially south and eastern areas. Ensembles also show a light snowfall across much of the region, especially for the higher elevations. The main features of the system that will be watched closely are the following: 1) How much phasing occurs between the northern and southern stream energy. The more phasing the greater the QPF and potential of heavier snowfall amounts, especially higher elevations. 2) Vertical temperature profile/Top-Down precipitation type. Currently, the deterministic models hang onto a boundary layer warm nose limiting snowfall in the valley. 3) Strength of the arctic high building into the plain states. Will add the potential of wintry mix/snowfall within the HWO. For Wednesday and Thursday, surface ridging builds back into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry conditions.
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The Euro Weeklies this evening FTR didn't look torchy. Looked cold until roughly Feb 2nd. Then it is kind of off and on warmth after that. Feb looks weakly base warm with some cold extrusions.
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Some bonus snow today for folks.... 18z GFS continues to advertise a pattern with some opportunities. The 12z CMC looked ok as well. Looks like it wold have some clipper opportunities after a week of dry weather. Again, I think as this pattern relaxes later next week, we are going to see some opportunities.....and then February will be cutter city w/ a few that take the low road.
