andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
andyhb replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
Not that the upcoming pattern for the next week or so will be great for severe prospects, but this is indeed getting a bit repetitive. Two days after you posted the bolded, there was a localized tornado outbreak along I-35 in S OK that was probably the best April chase day in a portion of the Plains in awhile (along with more tornadoes on 4/24 in SE OK/NE TX). -
Estill SC tornado upgraded to EF4.
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Really like today's setup south of I-40 in OK. Likely a couple of outflow boundaries to interact with for storms coming off the dryline, plus winds (as of now) are remaining more backed than in model guidance. Residual capping may also encourage rather photogenic storm structure in addition to the tornado threat.
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What? Mid-late May is climatological peak season for these areas.
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SREF popping a 90 this early (FH 72) is a pretty good indicator of a problem on Thursday.
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10+ violent tornadoes and the rest of the numbers usually follow suit. Any outbreak like that automatically earns the title "historic" in my book. Actually any outbreak with more than a half dozen violent tornadoes does so. There are other factors such as location (see: 5/31/1985) and time of year (e.g. 1/21-22/99, 2/5/08) that also factor in.
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Pressing X to doubt moisture mixing out that severely so close to the Gulf with unimpeded return flow. Not like the temps are in the upper 90s or 100s either.
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Probably worth noting that while the progged warm sector on the models is not especially extensive in terms of northward extent, it is very extensive in the longitudinal (W-E) direction. This matters when you have a setup with westerly winds aloft.
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Wouldn't be shocked if we end up with two EF4s out of that lead supercell.
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Absolutely nuts.
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Good stuff, retweeted.
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Not sure if this is yours or if you have a twitter account, but this should be shared.
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Yet another EF3 in Columbia’s CWA.
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Tornado scars showing up from visible satellite. Saw a lot of this post-4/27/11.
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High end damage all around along this portion of the Bassfield-Soso, MS EF4 track.
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Debris travelling crazy distances is a hallmark of high end tornadoes (and often high end setups) and this is no exception.
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Nope, I believe it is from the first tornado, which dissipated before hitting Bassfield.
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LIX keeping it at EF3 as of now.
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Tornado from second supercell is prelim EF3. The first tornado from the lead supercell (same that produced the Bassfield EF4) is EF2 (in Walthall County). Just wanted to clarify since this all is quite confusing indeed.
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Very intense vegetation damage along this portion of the first tornado's path near Bassfield, MS.
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Major tornado just struck Seneca, SC head on. 63.5 dBZ debris ball, TDS bottoming out.
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61 dBZ debris ball and I had +73/-134 mph a couple of scans ago, that is a very strong tornado.
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Cell near Thomaston, GA looks close to producing and it could be a sig tor if it does.
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This whole violent tornadoes on trolley tracks idea is eerily similar to 4/11/65 in S MI.
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Cell is taking on more classic supercell characteristics. Cell in behind doing the same.
