andyhb

This year is very much reminding me of those insanely quiet periods between 1985 and 1988 where flow across the US just generally died in peak season. Poleward displaced Pacific jet is the main culprit of this, and that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

l'll take an order of the 12z Euro kplzthxbai. Out there from the 9th to the 14th.

Because the current run is the one that is running right now, not the displayed one necessarily. Since Wednesday is not in range yet, it defaults to the previous run when you try to display the data for that particular day.

The Euro data comes out from ~12:45 to 2 PM CDT during daylight savings. There's no way that site would have the 12z run in that far already.

....what are you talking about? That's the 00z run. Look: FH 168 hrs. 168 from last night's run was Thursday 00z. FH 156 from the 12z run today will be Thursday 00z.

00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.

One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.

Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new. There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.

With a pitiful pattern it looks like heading towards May I might add. Upper flow over the CONUS dies with the unfavorable +dAAM/dt tendency. A lot of bad in the CPC analogs too with 2006 and 1987 showing up at/near the top (easily two of the worst Mays for chasing).

On the other hand, the CMC and UK have basically nothing because they aren't nearly as amplified with Friday's trough. Thing more or less just slides through the large scale flow as opposed to really digging.

GFS was definitely more promising than the 00z run though.

I'm pretty impressed with the overall synoptics with this system (especially the strong LLJ throughout the afternoon), looks like a fairly prototypical earlier season High Plains event. Also a strong LLJ like that will help counteract any negative effects the ongoing drought might have on moisture return. Need that lead system to both help recover the Gulf sufficiently after the FROPA this weekend but also stay a bit less amplified so as to not suppress the cyclogenesis/warm sector behind it.

Certainly taking more note of Friday with the recent model runs aside from the GFS (which looks to be too fast). The 500 mb winds over the southern half of the threat especially have definitely shifted more straight out of the SW as opposed to the SSW, partly due to the somewhat more positive tilt nature of the trough. Not all of guidance is indicating a wash out in the morning/early afternoon either now. Curious to see how far north the destabilization gets closer in proximity to the surface low, it seems possible that we could have an arcing band of semi-discrete storms up in that area. Low level shear should be rather favorable over most of the threat area, although I do have some questions regarding more boundary-parallel deep layer shear in some portions of the risk. Should note that a lobe of vorticity (especially apparent on the latest Euro run) on the SW side of the ULL may lead to pressure falls further south and subsequent convergence/low level wind response.

2010s post-2012 are fun, eh? This entire regime that we've been in for most of the last half decade has been very testing on my patience for following this stuff (and that says a lot). Fortunately there was 2016 to have success with chasing to keep the interest high, but aside from that, not a whole lot. All of this bupkis on Twitter/etc. about calling the season now isn't helping either.

I mean, my frustration is more arising from Twitter than anything else, where people are basically trolling while not offering anything productive regarding actual meteorology. You're fine. That was probably the wrong thread to quote on that.

No, I'm annoyed by some of the lack of objective analysis for anything that isn't focused on the Plains. My analysis now is that this thing is too amplified and its wavelength is too short. How quickly everything turns to a lesser threat these days.

Too amplified though, trough matures too quickly and thus the next day looks like a mess with an occluding surface low.

Would be nice if I saw more than just statements about the Plains there. That's all I'm going to say about that.

Well this is rather impressive, to say the least.

The Euro/EPS for the last several runs has been indicating a large scale pattern that could result in a more widespread severe wx episode next week should it hold until then. Seems there is some potential for an unseasonably strong trough to eject at that time. The EPS mean last night had a sub-990 mb (yes, sub-990 mb) lee cyclone at 216 hours, which is pretty phenomenal for a 51 member mean that far out. Something to keep an eye on.

The idea shown on the Euro/EPS mean is a more low amplitude pattern that doesn't necessarily mean a big SE ridge.

The 500 mb height gradient across the SW is total garbage for this weekend especially on the Euro and the most recent 18z GFS.

Looks at recent GFS and especially Euro runs for this weekend -> Just can't get anything going whatsoever apparently. Doesn't help that we aren't getting a lot of help from the polar jet.

Yeah the pattern next weekend (specifically the 18th and 19th) is definitely beginning to catch my attention. Large warm sector being suggested with days of return flow and the potential for a seasonally strong trough to eject out of the SW. Plenty of ways for that to fall apart closer in though, but moisture looks to be available with quality mid level lapse rates (i.e. thermodynamics are generally a non-issue) assuming things come together.