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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    I'm not so certain there won't be a few supercells further south into N IL, although things may be a bit more mixed out down there so the tornado threat is less. Haven't looked much into the QLCS threat yet, but I'd imagine with strong shear and strong instability that it is certainly elevated. Oh and the 18z NAM is not just bordering on a tornado outbreak in WI, it is one.
  2. andyhb
    18z HRRR and 12z MPAS variants are bordering on a tornado outbreak in WI tomorrow. The former would be a huge problem for the I-94 corridor.
  3. andyhb
    Tornado just went right through the middle of Clinton MO. Using this thread since it's the same system.
  4. andyhb
    The EML on Friday morning/early afternoon is ridiculous and should raise alarm bells for anyone familiar with what is necessary to get an outbreak in the Midwest.
  5. andyhb
    Friday could be a very volatile severe weather event up north in IA/WI/N IL/E MN based on what I'm seeing come off the latest guidance. Going to almost certainly need a thread for it.
  6. andyhb
    This storm has been officially rated as a Category 5 on the RSI scale for the Upper Midwest. It is the first Cat 5 for any region since Jan 2016, the first for the Midwest since GHD 2011, and it is the highest value on the RSI achieved for any region since the Jan 1996 Nor'easter.
  7. andyhb
    For lack of a more scientific analysis, holy shit.
  8. andyhb
    Man that would be a massive bust if it verified.
  9. andyhb
    Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).
  10. andyhb
    Some pretty jaw dropping wording from the headlines of the latest AFD from NWS Marquette. This thing is going to be a truly remarkable (and dangerous) storm for even the winter-hardened folks of the UP.
  11. andyhb
    12z NAM was an outbreak of severe storms across the SE into the Mid Atlantic Sunday evening through Monday. There is a very large area of high shear and sufficient CAPE overlap showing up here.
  12. andyhb
    Another death has been unfortunately found in a damaged home in Aroma Park from the Kankakee-area tornado.
  13. andyhb
    18z GFS casually with 6 feet of snow near Marquette. Ungodly with the lake enhancement to boot.
  14. andyhb
    The totals being printed out of N WI and the UP/northern LP of MI from the 12z suite are just absurd.
  15. andyhb
    To be clear, GRB's all time record snowfall is 29" from 3/1-2/1888. Some model progs are smashing that even accounting for the earlier clipper.
  16. andyhb
    That IKK storm yesterday produced multiple record breaking hailstones for IL in addition to the multiple strong tornadoes, including one that was apparently nearly 8".
  17. andyhb
    Major damage in/near Lake Village IN with a report of 2 fatalities, multiple homes destroyed.
  18. andyhb
    Cat 2 on NESIS and Cat 3 on RSI, I think the latter is a far better representation of this storm’s magnitude despite not quite hitting all of the population centers as hard as it could’ve, like some in the past (PDII, Jan 1996, Feb 1983, etc). If the core Boston area had gotten 2 feet instead of 15”, it’d easily be a Cat 4 on the RSI.
  19. andyhb
    This storm has been rated a high end Cat 3 on the RSI scale for the Northeast, which to me seems like a fair ranking considering it didn’t quite bullseye most of the population centers with the heaviest amounts, missed DC/Baltimore entirely, and was fairly confined to the coast. However, it produced historic or near historic snowfall amounts over the area it did strongly affect and did drop 20+” on most of the NYC metro. Way better than NESIS IMO.
  20. andyhb
    So is Central Park just going to pretend that the 0.15" of liquid after their 1 PM observation of 19.7" didn't exist or...
  21. andyhb
    Did PVD not get additional snow after their 37.9" measurement? There were a couple of bands that pivoted through there that probably should've got them above 38" officially. Central Park is obviously worse, they got 0.15" of liquid after their 19.7" observation at 1 PM. That is straight up shortchanging.
  22. andyhb
    Those Fall River pics remind me of some that I’ve seen out of Woonsocket/vicinity from 1978.
  23. andyhb
    Next level/biblical stuff out of Fall River MA.
  24. andyhb
    Yeah it was 34.5", that's the highest I can think of for second place.
  25. andyhb
    There's like two dozen 30"+ reports from the Providence area, you were just north of the highest amounts.
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