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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Via Clint Hendricks. Apparently became a large stovepipe and then a cone after this.
  2. andyhb
    Very reliable report here.
  3. andyhb
    Tornado in progress near Lucerne MO, TDS, report from Colin Davis.
  4. andyhb
    Central/southern part of the Chicago metro is getting rocked. Seeing a lot of 80-90 mph outbound bins from KLOT not too far off the deck.
  5. andyhb
    The 3 km NAM has a 100 kt 500 mb max tomorrow in IA, I cannot recall very many systems at all with that in June @RCNYILWX.
  6. andyhb
    Parameter space near/south of that warm front in the backed surface winds tomorrow is alarming for any semi-discrete storms that can maintain themselves in the area. While there certainly are some caveats such as storm mode, degree of HP dominance given less than ideal venting flow and high PWATs, and prior convection, the high population and potential for relatively fast moving storms makes this likely the most dangerous setup so far this year on paper.
  7. andyhb
    That is quite a potent shortwave on the 12z Euro for Thursday with a 90+ kt 500 mb max, especially for June. Morning convection will rule the roost as usual, but I would expect a pretty widespread and potentially significant severe event given the magnitude of the flow overlapping strong instability.
  8. andyhb
    PDS tornado watch out for the area surrounding the MS/OH River confluence. 80/80 tornado probabilities.
  9. andyhb
    Probably worth pointing out that the 12z HRRR has a) a lot of morning convection and b) what is likely a significant tornado outbreak later across E MO and W IL. The outflow restricts some of the spatial extent of the threat, but recovery occurs quickly given the strength of the wind fields.
  10. andyhb
    Very strong wording in the latest D3 for Monday, got the feeling this ends up as a D2 MDT.
  11. andyhb
    00z model guidance in so far certainly does nothing to quell concerns for Monday. Could be a widespread outbreak based on just about everything I'm seeing, and the trough/EML looks to favor discrete convection for a pretty lengthy window. Going to need a dedicated thread for this soon.
  12. andyhb
    Potential for a large scale severe weather event from the Lakes southward into the Mid South appears to be increasing for Monday (4/27, go figure) based on recent model guidance. EML looks potent across a large area with plenty of moisture, a favorable trough ejection (as of now), and strong shear across a large expanse of real estate.
  13. andyhb
    I'm not so certain there won't be a few supercells further south into N IL, although things may be a bit more mixed out down there so the tornado threat is less. Haven't looked much into the QLCS threat yet, but I'd imagine with strong shear and strong instability that it is certainly elevated. Oh and the 18z NAM is not just bordering on a tornado outbreak in WI, it is one.
  14. andyhb
    18z HRRR and 12z MPAS variants are bordering on a tornado outbreak in WI tomorrow. The former would be a huge problem for the I-94 corridor.
  15. andyhb
    Tornado just went right through the middle of Clinton MO. Using this thread since it's the same system.
  16. andyhb
    The EML on Friday morning/early afternoon is ridiculous and should raise alarm bells for anyone familiar with what is necessary to get an outbreak in the Midwest.
  17. andyhb
    Friday could be a very volatile severe weather event up north in IA/WI/N IL/E MN based on what I'm seeing come off the latest guidance. Going to almost certainly need a thread for it.
  18. andyhb
    This storm has been officially rated as a Category 5 on the RSI scale for the Upper Midwest. It is the first Cat 5 for any region since Jan 2016, the first for the Midwest since GHD 2011, and it is the highest value on the RSI achieved for any region since the Jan 1996 Nor'easter.
  19. andyhb
    For lack of a more scientific analysis, holy shit.
  20. andyhb
    Man that would be a massive bust if it verified.
  21. andyhb
    Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).
  22. andyhb
    Some pretty jaw dropping wording from the headlines of the latest AFD from NWS Marquette. This thing is going to be a truly remarkable (and dangerous) storm for even the winter-hardened folks of the UP.
  23. andyhb
    12z NAM was an outbreak of severe storms across the SE into the Mid Atlantic Sunday evening through Monday. There is a very large area of high shear and sufficient CAPE overlap showing up here.
  24. andyhb
    Another death has been unfortunately found in a damaged home in Aroma Park from the Kankakee-area tornado.
  25. andyhb
    18z GFS casually with 6 feet of snow near Marquette. Ungodly with the lake enhancement to boot.
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