andyhb

I'll trust Levi Cowan's analysis over yours, sorry to say.

Here's your microwave loop, not seeing any signs of an imminent ERC here.

Eye warming to greater than 20˚C on the most recent IR scans. Still intensifying, would expect a substantial drop in pressure on the next recon fix.

This is quite the high-res visible shot from GOES-16 at 19:41 UTC.

This would be better diagnosed with a microwave satellite pass, still too far out from the radar to know for certain.

Is the eye actually contracting or is it just an illusion from mesovortices and storm tops from the hot towers in the eyewall?

The great annual Yanksfan takeover of the tropical threads is on.

Definitive statements of "will" or "won't" happen probably aren't the best to be making in borderline cases like this.

What? There is no sign of an outer ring of convection/moat between the newly forming eyewall and the exterior. Nor should there be with a storm just getting it going like this. Please stop.

Oh and the 18z Euro is a big problem. RI once it enters the Gulf followed by a Cat 4 landfall north of Galveston. First global run I've seen go sub 940 mb.

Re: the NAM 3 km. It is not ocean-coupled, which means unrealistic processes physically will take place in the model, leading to unrealistic feedbacks and unrealistic intensities. In case you didn't get my message there, it's unrealistic.

For a degreed meteorologist you sure make a lot of definitive statements like this when a more nuanced approach may be more fruitful (and in this case, in the face of observations that clearly may speak in contrary). Ah hell, who am I kidding...

To some degree the interaction with Cuba is probably helping this via frictional convergence and flow-channelling/downsloping off the mountains to the north.

Looking at IR loops, I wouldn't be surprised to see a relocation of the low level circulation to the south once again as convection continues to pulse on the southern flank. Most recent ASCAT analysis indicates attempted surface cyclogenesis between Cuba and Jamaica as well. This would open up the possibility to a considerable bout of strengthening over the very warm water south of Cuba and minimal shear, not to mention likely result in a further south track.

For all of those people wasting time with a...certain individual in the Laura thread, all I have to say is "divide by zero".

...because it runs up the entire spine of Cuba going by the center-line track...

That was...not a great initial fix by the 12z Euro.

On top of the 12z HWRF, both the operational 00z Euro and 12z UK have a strong (sub 950 mb) landfall, the former near Galveston, the latter close to the TX/LA border.

The 12z HWRF comes in a lot stronger with the more southern track that allows additional development south of Cuba, result is a higher end Cat 4 making landfall just east of Houston/Galveston. I'd also lean towards the current core interacting destructively with the mountains near the SE coast of Cuba, but it may not mean a whole lot in the long run if it finds itself over water again quickly, especially the given extremely high OHC in the northwestern Caribbean. Continual redevelopment of convection and frictional convergence may encourage the development of additional LLCs should the current core succumb to land interaction.

Holy mother of god. Warning: viewers with headphones might want to lower the volume. Information about where it was filmed.

Summer severe wx prediction has been documented to have less skill than its spring counterpart. Composite parameters and high resolution/convective allowing guidance have less ability when flow becomes more nebulous in the summer, capping is generally stronger over synoptic scales, and forcing is weaker.

Multiple other 120+ mph estimates coming out of that survey, including 126 mph at Atkins unofficially measured by a private wx station. We already knew this was a top end event, that just confirms it.

A cyclic pyrosupercell. Now I’ve seen it all.

Incredible picture of a fire-induced tornado from the Loyalton Fire near Reno earlier. Radar confirmed it as well and it was tornado warned.

So apparently DVN has decided to not survey this event. That's honestly pretty sad considering the impact of this thing.