andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Officially in La Nina conditions per WMO. Thinking a moderate event is becoming increasingly likely with strong trade winds continuing near and east of the dateline.
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Further intensification and westward progression of the Niña seems likely should this trade surge on the ECMWF come to fruition. Looks to me like we’re heading for a moderate event. Seems like MEI is paralleling 2007 as well to a decent degree.
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This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.
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I can’t imagine a whole lot of people evacuated either.
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Probably not ideal to have an eyewall with 100+ mph winds parked over an area for hours that has already seen 15-20” of rainfall and currently has a flash flood emergency. Oh, and then there’s the storm surge that continues to build to the east towards Pensacola. This is quickly turning into a very ugly situation for those on AL/W FL Gulf Coast.
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This should help cool the western ENSO regions a bit...
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Good thread here from Brian Tang at SUNY Albany.
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That's impossible to know for now. I'd lean towards a quieter than normal chase season though.
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Typed up a Twitter thread regarding this.
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Should probably add the obvious Nina standing wave pattern showing up now in the 850 hPA zonal wind Hovmollers. Strong, sustained trades across most of the basin.
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September run of the NMME is getting pretty aggressive with the strength of the Niña come winter, with the majority of members reaching moderate strength. Getting rather concerned about a very active cool season severe weather pattern given the drought conditions in the SW supporting efficient EML advection east of the Plains and the La Niña supporting SE/W Atlantic ridging.
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I'm a fan of the low level hodograph curvature I've seen on a few soundings, although I'd like to see the magnitude of the 850 mb flow increase a bit to be more sure on tornado potential. SPC mentions 30-40 kts, but most soundings I've pulled are more in the 20-30 kt range.
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That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.
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I don't know, because expecting more than 1 out of 15 storms through August to be beyond a Category 1 seems reasonable? Again, it's all relative to the amount of actual activity. Sure if we had only 6 named storms by now, it might look more impressive in terms of "quality" if we had 3-4 canes and 1 major.
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And I said that where? Learn to read for context please. By no means am I calling for a "season fail" the rest of the way through, but consider some actual, I don't know, statistics.
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When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).
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Those are absolutely bonkers.
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Whole bunch of Cat 3/Cat 4 level gusts for quite awhile in LCH.
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ASOS station reported consecutive gusts of 117, 128, and 122.
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New gust of 122 mph at LCH. Man it is raging there. Have to be some of the more impressive obs. captured by an official station in a landfalling hurricane in the US.
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LCH gusting to 128 mph per live feed.
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Here's a radical idea re: the southern eyewall. It's both a combination of attenuation (from KLCH) and partial degradation (via KHGX). There may be some slight attenuation from KHGX since the southern part of the eye is not perfectly east of it, but the southern eyewall is certainly weaker. It may not be open, it may not be fully closed, let recon handle that, but it is weaker. Jesus christ.
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Lol. We get it, you all want it to be a Cat 5.
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This one is comparable to Charley in terms of wind speed/pressure relationship, but Laura is considerably larger.
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Updated surge potential map from NHC is frightening for Lake Charles.
