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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    The PDII comparisons starting to flash into the picture.
  2. andyhb
    I do think there's a logical limit to how far north the mixing is based on how strong the Arctic high is initially. Someone is going to get absolutely hammered with ice though if the SE ridge amplifies significantly.
  3. andyhb
    If the dynamics get super charged by that northern stream wave, it increases the chances of a 2'+ jackpot for someone, if you want it in real weenie speak.
  4. andyhb
    That northern stream wave/lobe of the PV continues to get stronger with each passing Euro run. Not sure if that continues, but it absolutely raises the ceiling on this if it phases. I should probably add that it also may induce more mixing concerns for areas further south, as it would lead to SE ridge amplification and WAA aloft.
  5. andyhb
    That run is an absolute disaster for the Carolinas ice wise, particularly upstate SC, Charlotte, and most of the Triad/Research Triangle metros.
  6. andyhb
    GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north.
  7. andyhb
    I'm telling you all what you don't want with this storm, and it's this centered over the Atlanta metro via the 00z Euro. Do not be in the ZR swath with this thing.
  8. andyhb
    That is absolutely not sleet via the 00z Euro in the Atlanta metro during the peak of the event.
  9. andyhb
    1.5+" of ice for much of the Atlanta metro/N GA thanks to an extremely strong CAD wedge. This is a nightmare.
  10. andyhb
    Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.
  11. andyhb
    Yeah, that UK is pretty damn ridiculous on the Kuchera.
  12. andyhb
    Bordering PDII levels on that UK run, deeper storm with a long period of heavy snow both in the WAA region and the deformation zone.
  13. andyhb
    And for the knockout punch...
  14. andyhb
    If you want a major storm, you want Tomer Burg talking like this. End of story.
  15. andyhb
    CPC analogs say snowbanks taller than Randy incoming.
  16. andyhb
    Big west based -NAO with a lot of cold air present usually equals some kind of pay dirt, just uncommon in a Niña.
  17. andyhb
    What in the 2010 hell was that AIFS run?
  18. andyhb
    That is a catastrophic ice storm on the 12z Euro for this region and particularly Atlanta.
  19. andyhb
    Ok but seriously, what in the actual hell happened with that run?
  20. andyhb
    Jackpots of over 16” in central IA and S WI with this, seems like many areas got over 10” by the end of it.
  21. andyhb
    Looks like the advertised spread the wealth event is coming into fruition. Seems like N IN is doing pretty well compared to expectations, widespread 6-12" elsewhere.
  22. andyhb
    Des Moines looks like it’s getting hammered.
  23. andyhb
    18z EPS mean is 10" for the QC even at 10:1 ratios, pretty impressive considering I'd expect the ratios to be better than that through a good chunk of the storm. This will punch above its weight class SLP depth wise given the favorable dynamics aloft and very strong LLJ/WAA minus a lot of strong convection in the warm sector. Height falls look excellent on the 00z GFS.
  24. andyhb
    HRRR continues to be very impressive, albeit likely overdone. Verbatim would likely mean some pockets of 12-18" over IA and N IL/S WI.
  25. andyhb
    IIRC that wave had a deepening trend closer to verification as well as the PV lobe became better resolved, I remember having some back and forth with @RCNYILWX about it at the time. The issue this time is that the upstream ridge isn't quite as amplified as that, and there's a bit more phasing required here for a higher end outcome.
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