andyhb

12z Euro still has that slider/weaker look. Looks to track close to Cleveland.

I'd imagine this one will be dubbed the MLK Blizzard if it comes to fruition.

Widespread 50+ mph gusts pushing 60 at the lakeshore that run. Would be an upper echelon blizzard for a large chunk of the subforum.

That is simply filthy at 500 mb.

There are a lot of GEFS members with sub 970 mb solutions by the time the storm gets to the lakes this run. Definitely a majority.

00z high res guidance is not painting a pretty picture for the central Gulf Coast tomorrow night. Incredible shear with 70-80 kt LL flow and the potential for embedded supercells. It’s going to be hard to keep that warm sector offshore with gale/storm force southerlies trying to advect moisture north.

18z GFS is super weak and south, we’ve come full circle.

…Euro is instead super dry, a bit too “slider-esque” still and too broad with the main shortwave.

12z runs have been pretty stout thus far and the Euro is coming in shallower with the lead wave on Wed/Thurs. Seems to have better wave spacing between the two as well.

I think it's more likely for the Friday system to get suppressed south/shift too weak than cut that severely. That -NAO block is stout.

18z GFS is a higher end share the wealth solution. Ideal track for St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit to get buried.

Basically what it comes down to is that 1/11-13 shortwave needs to be the dominant one in the wave train for this potential with this to take off. In other words, it needs to be slower/amplify more in the west prior to ejecting into the Plains.

If we see the ensembles start to emphasize that in-between shortwave more in the next few runs, then we’ll know it might be curtains for the high end. Going to be difficult to get 3 consecutive waves to amplify significantly regardless of your background regime. Edit: EPS mean still looks rather promising.

The wave in between the first system and the one we’ve been tracking is now too deep/amplified as well. There’s no moisture leftover for that one to be the big storm. Storms with so many moving parts like this tend to be very iffy.

12z Euro is a total bust because the shortwave doesn’t amplify and just slides east. Number one concern with this one.

Thanks for saying all of this more eloquently than I can. Yeah the difference in the ensemble means (particularly the GEFS from the GEPS and EPS) in handling the PV interaction makes me think that this main wave needs to amplify in the west initially to avoid a) sliding east/south and turning into a nor’easter and b) getting suppressed to the point of a lesser event. CMC operational showed the former. If the timing is right though, the Euro, GFS, and what would be the UK just beyond range are the types of potential you look for once a decade essentially.

Yeah that second storm has true high end potential if it evolves anything like the 00z GFS or Euro. Both of those runs are historic storms for large swaths of real estate.

Pretty similar idea on the 00z GFS and Euro, 6 hours apart. Some truly high end dynamics at play here if this is the general idea we see in a few days, but there are a number of caveats of course. Timing and the amplitude of that main shortwave are the main ones.

UK about to uncork a monster as well at the end of the run. If that wave decides to dig a bit in the southwest and gets some help from the northwest via phasing or just as a kicker to help it swing out negatively tilted, the sky is the limit with the cold air waiting.

That would be rivaling the Blizzard of 1978 for the most severe on record in the Midwest. I say that with an entirely straight face.

...are you kidding me?

The 500 mb trough with that is... a spectacle, let's just say that.

@cyclone77 you still with us after that run?

Meanwhile the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the I-44 corridor with a historic winter storm next week.

12z Euro is quite simply a monster of a storm for the I-44 corridor next week. The overall pattern with an Arctic air mass dumping into the NW and a very potent jet/baroclinic zone seems supportive of something bigger for this region in that timeframe, although exact timing of shortwave amplification will dictate when and how high the ceiling might be.