andyhb

D2 and D3 ENH w/ sig hatching for Tues/Wed. If I didn't have prior commitments, Tuesday would be a slam dunk chase as it looks like a pretty high quality TX Panhandle day. Wednesday is more up on the air in terms of how much the cold front sinks south, prior convective influences, and also the degree to which the shortwave deamplifies as it ejects during the day. If wave timing is off, low level winds may veer, muting the threat.

Blue/Bokchito tornado rated EF3, strongest in OK in April since 4/14/2012 (Woodward).

All I know is if the front is as far south as the Euro/NAM project (albeit they have been shifting north a bit), the threat is pretty much cooked. The LLJ axis to the E might get interesting though if there isn't a large amount of antecedent convection.

Lovely start to May, not. Just stupid.

Screw that. That is all. #analysis

Going to hit Georgetown shortly if it stays down.

What in the hell is going on out there.

That supercell crossing Chesapeake Bay right now is a beast.

Looks like this has been revised down to 1 fatality. Better news than last night.

5 fatalities now in Monroe County.

Can't see it in the lower levels. In a radar hole.

That Demopolis storm has an incredibly intense meso aloft from KBMX. Have over 110 kts inbound with a huge BWER.

Supercell moving up towards Demopolis in the near term looking to be on a course for Tuscaloosa/Birmingham if it stays together...

Yeah, this is one of the more concerning reports I've read in awhile.

Pecos Hank's video of the Crockett/Alto, TX tornado from earlier.

Now perhaps? But good lord that is an incredible radar loop from KGWX.

Looking pretty outflow dominant at the moment.

Likely TDS now NE of Crockett with an extremely strong meso aloft. Had 125 kts inbound a scan ago.

Tornado in progress with the discrete cell near Madisonville/Midway.

I drive through that area regularly, a lot of rural residences near Highway 6 between Hearne and Calvert. Also that storm is moving up towards Franklin on US 79.

Potential for a sig tor there. Also a TDS on the latest scan.

Need to start paying attention to Sunday in the Upper Ohio Valley. Incredible soundings for the region coming off the 00z NAM/NAM 3 km and both of them have a string of supercells/bow echoes in the area.

Not to be overdramatic, but that 00z HRRR run is quite possibly the most dangerous looking solution I've seen from that model since maybe 4/27-28/2014, and possibly even back to 2011. The number of supercells it has interacting with an extremely favorable low level environment is pretty unreal. It's not alone in upticking the apparent threat at 00z, either. Taken face value, we're easily looking at a high risk setup, but I can definitely understand if SPC wants to delay an upgrade until the situation is more certain tomorrow morning in case any convection decides to blow up on the warm front potentially limiting its movement north (but, at the same time, I could very easily see one at 06z).

The combo of low level moisture and hellacious low level shear is at a level seldom seen here. The possibility of multiple bands of convection interacting with this environment assuming things stay at least semi discrete certainly has me thinking that there could be a) an expansion of the ENH/MDT east to account for sig severe storms moving across MS after dark into AL and b) potentially an upgrade to the current MDT in the D1. My concern would go even higher if something like the 06z NAM were to verify with more SW 500 mb winds atop a raging southerly/even slightly backed LLJ. The amount of veering with height in the lowest 3 km and a rapid increase to near 60 kts at 850 mb is sure to send SRH values skyrocketing perhaps even higher than current model progs. I'll say right now that 4/2/17 didn't look as favorable as this on a synoptic scale, but as always, the mesoscale will make or break it.

That is all going to be very bad for the Missouri/Red/Platte River flooding later on.