andyhb

KCRG-TV9 reports at least 4 fatalities in Greenfield.

DOW finding winds well in excess of the EF5 threshold 44 m AGL while the tornado was in Greenfield.

No rest for the weary. Saturday (Southern Plains) and Sunday further east are looking pretty impressive on the various 00z model runs.

Can we at least wait for the surveys to get in? And also, yes this tornado will get EF4+. We can have the other debate when it's finalized.

Catastrophic damage in Greenfield IA. TDS went up over 40,000 feet.

Large tornado confirmed on this storm.

Tuesday has big league severe possibilities in Iowa and surrounding area. Don't see many shortwaves with 500 mb flow approaching 90 kts (and relatively low amplitude) and 850 mb flow of 50+ kts this time of year. Has outbreak potential, especially if the trough slows a bit and we get a solution that resembles the last few runs of the ECMWF.

Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting on the southern periphery of the mid level wave ejecting into KS. Multiple 12z CAMs with supercells on the nose of the higher theta-e in W OK. Got that mothership look to it with a tornado chance as the LLJ cranks towards sundown.

Large tornado down near Henagar AL with a debris ball.

Maury County TN tornado.

Significant damage reported in Fairhaven WV from that tornado WNW of Pittsburgh earlier that had a 62.5 dBZ debris ball at one point on reflectivity.

Greenville OH is in a bad situation right now.

Pretty sure that TORE is for a signature in clear air/sidelobe contamination.

Large tornado moving into Portage.

Sig tor looks imminent on the Centreville MI cell.

TDS on the supercell near Dowagiac MI, heading up in the direction of K'zoo and Portage.

I think the extent of the tree damage probably pushed them over the threshold for EF4. That stuff was high end, especially just NE of town.

Barnsdall rated EF4.

Also that Terre Haute cell is heading on a line for Indianapolis later and already has a strong meso.

85 kts of 0-6 km shear on the Fort Wayne VAD right now.

Pretty nasty environment near the warm front in N IN right now.

Today and tomorrow look pretty volatile across a fairly large expanse of real estate. Indiana today seems like the best bet for chasing, good recovery going on in behind the earlier line of storms plus winds are staying more backed than the RAP was indicating.

Just going to point out that 9 times out of 10 when you see an MRMS rotation track map like this, you'd be wondering "was that a high risk" or something like that. I believe the processes that happened to cause N/W OK and S KS to underperform occurred on timescales shorter than outlook forecasts are meant to cover. To put it in simpler terms, the high risk was warranted, but it was death by a thousand paper cuts storm morphology wise. That Hennessey OK storm would've dropped an absolutely monstrous tornado had it not been seeded by the storm in behind, resulting in too much precip in the RFD. Other storms looked reasonable early and at one point we had a string of 4-5 discrete/semi-discrete supercells -> i.e. the incipient states of a tornado outbreak, but it seems they took just ever so slightly (perhaps less than an hour) too long to reach the really high theta-e air that was closer to I-40 and, say, US 281. Also the storms that formed in SW OK later were dealing with veered winds near the Pacific cold front and probably were having difficulty not being undercut by the same front. Had they propagated slightly off the front -> yikes.