andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Cell in SW NH near Keene also looks decent.
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Supercell near Poughkeepsie NY is worth keeping an eye on. A lot more isolated.
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Lapse rates aside (and actually in this particular sounding they aren't that bad), this is impressive.
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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
andyhb replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
That tornado near Marshall WI is nasty. -
See the problem with saying this all is that this is the highest tornado probs issued for this area of the country in quite some time. Given the lack of an EML which is a nearly universal indicator for higher end severe vs. run of the mill severe in this part of the country, I'm wondering why this was upped to a 10% so soon, tbh.
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I still don't like reading "weak mid level lapse rates" for any threat in the Northeast.
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At least 18 dead from last night, the situation in N AR sounds particularly bad.
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At least 10 dead now (7 in N TX, 2 in Mayes Co. OK, and 1 in Benton Co. AR) from last night's severe weather.
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Another large tornado down west of Decatur AR.
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Models playing catchup on moisture this morning/early afternoon, including basically all of the 12z CAMs.
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Absolutely insane tornado today in SW OK, pics to come.
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IMO a number of those photos show at minimum high end EF4 damage.
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Some FEMA CAP images showing incredible damage from the Greenfield tornado both in and southwest of town: http://fema-cap-imagery.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/Images/CAP_-_Spring_Storms_2024/Source/24-1-5261/Sortie_7_AerialOblique/
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Strong tornado WNW of San Angelo right now.
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KCRG-TV9 reports at least 4 fatalities in Greenfield.
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DOW finding winds well in excess of the EF5 threshold 44 m AGL while the tornado was in Greenfield.
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No rest for the weary. Saturday (Southern Plains) and Sunday further east are looking pretty impressive on the various 00z model runs.
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Can we at least wait for the surveys to get in? And also, yes this tornado will get EF4+. We can have the other debate when it's finalized.
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Catastrophic damage in Greenfield IA. TDS went up over 40,000 feet.
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Large tornado confirmed on this storm.
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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
andyhb replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Tuesday has big league severe possibilities in Iowa and surrounding area. Don't see many shortwaves with 500 mb flow approaching 90 kts (and relatively low amplitude) and 850 mb flow of 50+ kts this time of year. Has outbreak potential, especially if the trough slows a bit and we get a solution that resembles the last few runs of the ECMWF. -
Tomorrow is looking pretty interesting on the southern periphery of the mid level wave ejecting into KS. Multiple 12z CAMs with supercells on the nose of the higher theta-e in W OK. Got that mothership look to it with a tornado chance as the LLJ cranks towards sundown.
