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andyhb

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Large tornado NE of Ottumwa per Spencer Dant.
  2. andyhb
    That E Peoria storm is big trouble.
  3. andyhb
    06z HRRR has a trio of long tracked supercells across the northern third of IL, endangering several large population centers including Chicagoland from 3-6 pm. Very dangerous solution.
  4. andyhb
    Northeast IL/Chicagoland sure, north-central IL is definitely in a fairly high threat area though.
  5. andyhb
    When the 3 km NAM comes in looking like the hyped up runs of the FV3/HRRR, you might have a problem. 18z run is crazy for the northern MDT/vicinity.
  6. andyhb
    I won't make any comparisons to such high end outcomes this far out, but the synoptics with this one are screaming major severe weather outbreak, to say the least. Still comes down to the mesoscale on the day of and day before, but the potential here is at a level rarely seen given the consensus from the 12z guidance. Putting it another way for the long-timers, back in the day, this would be a level of threat that @CUmet would come out of the woodwork for.
  7. andyhb
    Lol you don't have to imagine it, there's 2000-4000 CAPE across the entire warm sector with tornadic supercell wind profiles.
  8. andyhb
    Unbelievable run again. All of those are occurring in environments favorable for strong/violent tornadoes.
  9. andyhb
    Put it this way, I would be in favor of moving Tuesday's thread to the main board if this place wasn't so poorly organized. Feel like both C/W and GL/OV are going to be involved in some manner here.
  10. andyhb
    These are some of the most dangerous model solutions I've seen in a very long time within reasonable range.
  11. andyhb
    30% D6 issued, with some pretty strong wording (understandably) for being that far out.
  12. andyhb
    Euro once again is a high end event for 4/4 (Tuesday). Massive trough with a wavelength of more than half the CONUS slams into a huge warm sector with mid-upper 60s dewpoints throughout. Other models definitely slowed so there is a bit of split now in the solutions.
  13. andyhb
    Bimodal D2 MDT, one closer to the surface low with a 10 hatched tornado risk (wind driven), the other in the Mid South with a 15 hatched tornado risk.
  14. andyhb
    Predictably, the 00z HRRR is insane.
  15. andyhb
    To be fair, he also has raised a lot of money for the community. You can't fault him for that.
  16. andyhb
    Come on, seriously now. You just don't see output like that from the 3 km NAM.
  17. andyhb
    HRRR solutions later are likely going to be pretty nuts if the 3 km NAM is already this aggressive across the warm sector (with supercellular storm modes).
  18. andyhb
    Early 3 km NAM runs certainly don't do anything to suppress this potential. Impressive parameter space across the entire warm sector.
  19. andyhb
    Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8.
  20. andyhb
    Huge D3 enhanced/30 hatched area issued.
  21. andyhb
    Somehow the 00z Euro came in and outdid last night's 00z run in terms of insanity. A 971 mb low with plenty of moisture access. Absolute bomb. Will just report my tweet here for the ensemble means, which all indicate that Tuesday could be a big day.
  22. andyhb
    Probably because it's almost -20 degrees at 500 mb and below freezing at 700 mb yielding extreme 0-3 km CAPE and low-level lapse rates.
  23. andyhb
    12z GFS/GEFS is also incredible in the Tuesday-Wednesday window next week.
  24. andyhb
    00z Euro for 4/4, holy mother of god...
  25. andyhb
    You could take a... "detour" to Eastern AR perhaps.
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