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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. Poll is now closed for this. Most popular vote was 1200-1300. Tweeted about the new March seasonal forecast from ECMWF for AMJ and it looks active.
  2. Well so much for tomorrow's threat with the early contamination, looking like further south in KY/TN/MS/AL might have a better shot now with the limited destabilization further north.
  3. To further the notion, yeah those are multiple fast moving supercells there, it's not picking up on a squall line. I tend to put a lot of weight in the 500 mb setup assuming thermos are adequate in these kinds of cases. This 500 mb setup with a powerful vort lifting ENE out of a mean positive tilt long wave trough, with an elongated west-southwesterly upper level jet and the surface low position, is notorious in the Great Lakes for significant severe weather events.
  4. Yeah I’m thinking the same thing, plus it’s the position that I’m paying attention to mainly since it is still a pretty strong surface low despite being filling.
  5. Pretty anomalous setup for March here for NM and W TX tomorrow. Strong signal on the CAMs for a supercellular storm mode initially and those could be tornadic judging by the wind fields. Going to be a question of how much moisture can be advected in there before initiation. Current obs closer to the Gulf Coast show mid-upper 60s dewpoints becoming entrenched near the Rio Grande Valley in south-central TX. Given the strength of this cyclogenesis/low level wind field, I would not be shocked to see 50s dewpoints common in E/SE NM, which, given the terrain, would amount to a fairly substantial amount of CAPE. Slow moving closed lows like this tend to perform well in the High Plains.
  6. Might be a decent shot at severe weather in the subforum on Thursday looking at recent guidance as very strong wind fields (broad 55-65+ kt LLJ) and cold air aloft overspread mid-upper 50s dewpoints (perhaps low 60s further south towards the OV). Could be one of those events where you have a large amount of instability concentrated in the low levels. These types of events tend to do some dirty work in this region.
  7. Paul Roundy was my OU advisor's phD advisor. This is another shot across the bow regarding this upcoming severe wx season.
  8. Wrong system @AfewUniversesBelowNormal The SPC outlook is for 3/9, which is the shortwave before the one you keep posting maps for.
  9. MLCAPE is already >1500 J/kg over a sizable chunk of the risk area at 17z so that element is basically checked off going forward. Going to come down to storm mode and whether the storm relative wind profiles are favorable enough for longer lived/strong mesocyclones (read: if the surface winds can remain at least southerly).
  10. *looks at end of the 12z Euro* *sees massive AK/Beaufort sea ridge and downstream Hudson Bay low/TPV*
  11. Y'all rang? New CPC monthly outlooks should be out today I think.
  12. Ship sinker on the 12z Euro for next weekend, thing deepens 31 mb in 24 hrs between 168 and 192 to 973 mb over southern Superior.
  13. 2015 with more dry air aloft probably would’ve had at least two high risks in May.
  14. @raindancewx I saw you post the TWC spring outlook elsewhere and am curious as to why you don’t agree with them for May/what your general thoughts for May are (for obvious reasons).
  15. I will say that I’m willing to try my luck with an El Niño (contrary to Gensini’s tweet) given 2017 and 2018 were both Ninas and generally didn’t yield much chasing wise. 2015/2016 on the other hand...
  16. Adding the new February run of the NMME to the growing signal for above normal precip in the Plains in peak season.
  17. Yeah I noticed that. That seems to be the only model not socking the entire area in with clouds through the day. Given this is such a potent system dynamically (500 mb jet in excess of 120 kts on Thursday), there's definitely going to be strong forcing for ascent over a large area, i.e. clouds/precip, but I do wonder whether the dry punch aloft might be stronger than forecasted by some of the global models and sneak in there/allow some insolation for a time. Should that happen, the dewpoints are sufficient for a severe threat and the shear is obviously off the charts (70-80+ kts of bulk shear) if anything can organize.
  18. Normally I'd say yes with it being only ~3 weeks to met spring, but the weeklies have also been performing horribly all winter lol.
  19. I'll tell you what, that system on Thursday would be a major severe wx/tornado outbreak in late March/April for the region should that type of setup come back around.
  20. But one trough isn’t really a way to judge a whole season’s potential, especially one that requires phasing in order to reach any sort of potential. All you can really ask for at this range is a hint at a good large scale regime, hence my post. Obviously some of 2015’s setups didn’t reach their ceilings, but at least there were troughs/enhanced precip in peak season, which is more than can be said for last year in particular.
  21. This is one of the stronger signals I've seen in recent years from the seasonal guidance (the other being 2015) for above normal precipitation in the Plains during the main severe/chasing season. There wasn't much reason for optimism last year given the near across the board signalling for dryness /well above normal temps heading into spring + the ENSO/tropical forcing regime we were in, but it definitely seems to be different at least on a larger scale. There is a lack of drought across most of the states east of the Continental Divide right now. California getting persistent stormy patterns with multiple heavy precip events is one of the changes from recent years too.
  22. 12z Euro run would suggest actually a pretty substantial severe threat next Tuesday in IL/vicinity with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints present and very strong shear. That would be an incredible flip from today/tomorrow.
  23. Man if that wave can amplify just a bit more and get some more Gulf moisture involved, this could easily be a top 10 snowstorm for the subforum, and I mean that with 100% seriousness. It's not everyday you see such an ideal air mass in the cold sector with potential access to anomalously high PWATs. This also probably won't have the wind component that some other major storms had in the region, which should yield better rates.
  24. Lol now that is the clipper to end all clippers, would have Jan 2005 licking its dust.
  25. That is some truly mind-numbing, 1994-esque cold there on the Euro, 850 mb temp anomalies of -30˚C, only this time with a major winter storm along with it.