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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    TTU WRF also has a couple of intense supercells moving across northern OK later tomorrow afternoon. Seems most of the WRF based guidance is pretty bullish on tomorrow's prospects regarding CI on the dryline, although longevity of the storms still is TBD. Seems like the KS stuff may struggle if it moves into the more stable air too quickly, while any OK storms may have a longer runway of favorable conditions should CI occur that far south.
  2. andyhb
    That wave ejecting on Friday definitely has some potential for the southern/central Plains. GFS is the most aggressive and is pretty classic looking both at the surface and 500 mb. Other models are a bit more subdued, need to watch the moisture quality.
  3. andyhb
    I think we’re going to need a dedicated thread for Wednesday soon enough. If that trough deamplifies any further from current progs, you’re going to see a scenario where the upper forcing is spread across a very large warm sector (from the Lower MS Valley to Upper Midwest) with favorable moisture and shear profiles for supercells and tornadoes. To me, it has the potential of a large scale outbreak, especially if the NAM/UK/Euro blend are on the right track.
  4. andyhb
    Definitely have concerns that the I-35 corridor in central/S TX including the Austin/Round Rock and San Antonio metros will be targeted tomorrow around rush hour, which is already hectic at the best of times. Many of the afternoon CAM runs indicate the potential for supercells initiating off the Edwards Plateau with very large hail and tornadoes given the forecast soundings around that time. This isn't exactly an area known for potent synoptic severe weather events, either.
  5. andyhb
    Rumours of the La Nina's demise were greatly exaggerated.
  6. andyhb
    2 EF3s, Winterset actually may have a shot at EF4 based on some of the damage I've seen. That was a nasty tornado.
  7. andyhb
    Reminder to use the FRAM estimates available on PivotalWx for ice accretion and not ZR QPF. It's a much better (and scientifically sound) method for estimating/forecasting icing events.
  8. andyhb
    Michigan: where exciting weather goes to die.
  9. andyhb
    Here they are.
  10. andyhb
    Someone needs to dig up the baro post in @Thundersnow12's sig for nostalgic purposes, since I'm pretty sure it was about now 11 years ago that things started to go to hell in a hand basket around these parts.
  11. andyhb
    I have a bad feeling about I-44 particularly in OK with this one. Setup screams either a big sleet event with snow/ZR mixed in, or a nasty ice storm.
  12. andyhb
    Ready 2 b buried?
  13. andyhb
    Thought the same thing looking at that. If we get that shortwave to amplify just a bit more and eject more intact, not only does the potential for a blizzard go up, but I could see jackpots approaching 2 feet from that wave alone given how moisture logged this thing is. Effectively, this thing is basically two storms in one.
  14. andyhb
    N IN and NW OH absolutely destroyed.
  15. andyhb
    18z GFS is going to be an absolute crush job. Wider swath of large accumulations with the lead wave and the second one is coming in deeper.
  16. andyhb
    Northern stream looks like it's going to be too dominant on the Euro.
  17. andyhb
    St. Louis and Indy get absolutely shellacked by the CMC, I-70 special.
  18. andyhb
    Did places in N RI and SE MA legit get 4 feet in 1978 or is that just urban legend? Most maps I see from that are around 3 feet or so in the jackpot zones.
  19. andyhb
    QPF output on some of these models is nutty. Not very often where you talk about such a moisture laden system that lasts awhile, but this could be it.
  20. andyhb
    Too sheared out.
  21. andyhb
    This is looking like a top 5er potentially for the general Boston area.
  22. andyhb
    Granted for storms that have no chance of slipping out to sea, the SSTAs will obviously be a positive factor in terms of intensification, but that might not be the case for borderline events or those that suddenly have double low configs.
  23. andyhb
    So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?
  24. andyhb
    I believe the dynamic snow ratio (attempts to account for dendrite fracturing due to the wind) from Weathernerds might be a good reference here.
  25. andyhb
    Put this 500 mb plot in some sort of new Kocin-Uccellini textbook because that is just about perfect.
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