andyhb

Just a massive tornado, has finally occluded from the looks of it, but I doubt that supercell is done.

Holy sh*t.

Ugly reports starting to come in from NE AR.

TORE for the Bootheel tornado.

Now just spiked well over 200 kts GTG. Violent, violent tornado.

That long-tracker that just crossed into the Bootheel is just an absolute monster. 170 kts GTG currently and has been stronger with an enormous TDS.

So that 16z HRRR is probably nudging towards territory that would warrant pink in the convective outlook. Multiple pre-frontal supercells in highly volatile shear/sufficient low-level buoyancy environment.

Td of 69˚F at Memphis before 10 AM in December is pretty much absurd.

Have some 2/28/2017 vibes from that 12z HRRR run. We are dealing with some pretty incredible moisture for December (or any cold season month, really) and it should get pretty far north given the lack of morning convection.

They considered a moderate risk, wouldn't be surprised to see one later given the size of that 10 hatched in the newest D1.

The 12z Euro is probably an outbreak from MO and S IL southward given verbatim.

Period around next weekend has potential (that will probably be squandered). Certainly cold air available and a substantial baroclinic zone if we do indeed get a wave ejecting around that time.

So the October measurement for the PDO via NCDC was -3.06, which is extremely strong. Last time it was that strong per that calculation was 1955 (precursor to a major drought year on the Plains). Not sure what Mantua's calculation has, but we've clearly transitioned out of the predominantly positive phase that was present since 2013 or so.

Nothing about what raindance posted suggested the La Nina is dead.

Major tornado damage being reported north of Fredericktown and in St. Mary MO.

MO maybe into W IL also looks interesting on Sunday, especially closer to the triple point/warm front.

That's a nasty looking setup for MO/IA/IL next Tuesday on the 12z GFS, big change from earlier runs.

Meanwhile the 12z Euro says nada. Not much of a trough ejection.

Already seeing a few checkmarks starting to be ticked off in terms of a fall severe wx potential early next week across recent guidance. Not sure how far north/east it will extend, but it seems there could be a chance for an anomalously large warm sector to exist ahead of whatever ejects eastward from a developing longwave trough in the west. Obviously a lot that could go wrong as with any 8+ day prog, but seeing that moisture available along with a very strong Pacific jet streak making landfall has my eyebrows perked up a bit.

Looking towards the earlier part of next week, I wouldn't be surprised if we see another elevated period of severe potential relative to climatology for the Plains and perhaps eastward. Pattern looks quite conducive to moisture return and potentially quite anomalous moisture return in front of another large scale trough developing in the west on ensemble guidance.

Also I have quite a bit of concern that Norman is going to take on its second major hailstorm in less than 6 months tomorrow. Soundings near the triple point indicate very large cloud layer shear and plenty of CAPE in the hail growth zone.

Regardless of tornado potential, I will be heading to the Wichitas tomorrow to do some hiking in the late morning/early afternoon. That would put me in great position for whatever initiates in the 21-00z window.

I still have some very bearish opinions towards Sunday as a whole, mainly from the moisture standpoint. There is not a single model that shows anywhere near the moistening/destabilization that the NAM/NAM 3 km shows, especially pre-00z. Looks to me like most convection should be nocturnal and likely quasi-linear.

Bottom continues to fall out on the sub-surface readings. This is a pretty stout cooling occurring.

That doesn't really say a whole lot about whether there will be storms and of what mode.