Jump to content

andyhb

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,299

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    HRRR solutions later are likely going to be pretty nuts if the 3 km NAM is already this aggressive across the warm sector (with supercellular storm modes).
  2. andyhb
    Early 3 km NAM runs certainly don't do anything to suppress this potential. Impressive parameter space across the entire warm sector.
  3. andyhb
    Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8.
  4. andyhb
    Huge D3 enhanced/30 hatched area issued.
  5. andyhb
    Somehow the 00z Euro came in and outdid last night's 00z run in terms of insanity. A 971 mb low with plenty of moisture access. Absolute bomb. Will just report my tweet here for the ensemble means, which all indicate that Tuesday could be a big day.
  6. andyhb
    Probably because it's almost -20 degrees at 500 mb and below freezing at 700 mb yielding extreme 0-3 km CAPE and low-level lapse rates.
  7. andyhb
    12z GFS/GEFS is also incredible in the Tuesday-Wednesday window next week.
  8. andyhb
    00z Euro for 4/4, holy mother of god...
  9. andyhb
    You could take a... "detour" to Eastern AR perhaps.
  10. andyhb
    500 mb presentation on the Euro is a classic for a significant severe event in the Midwest.
  11. andyhb
    CSU MLP is going off for Friday with a massive 45% hatched area.
  12. andyhb
    That’s a very large 30% in the D5.
  13. andyhb
    Strong tornado ongoing WNW of Tuskegee AL.
  14. andyhb
    00z models look nasty for Friday in portions of the sub-forum. A couple of them have what would probably be a significant severe weather outbreak from the Mid MS Valley to the western Lakes. Some very high end solutions here in the GEFS.
  15. andyhb
    And now up to 21...
  16. andyhb
    Report from another forum of the situation in Amory MS. Death toll looks to be up to at least 14.
  17. andyhb
    7 dead per county coroner in Sharkey Co. MS (Rolling Fork area).
  18. andyhb
    That was a devastating hit on the northern portion of Amory.
  19. andyhb
    Absolutely violent tornado heading for Amory, and that is not a small town.
  20. andyhb
    Debris above 30k feet with this thing, very likely violent.
  21. andyhb
    Large wedge tornado in progress near Rolling Fork, MS.
  22. andyhb
    06z HRRR, holy mother of god…
  23. andyhb
    SPC outlook makes it seem like they were quite close to a high risk, but the disagreement from the CAMs held them off.
  24. andyhb
    Looking over this for the past few days, Friday could be a very nasty day basically from the Sabine Valley across the Lower MS Valley towards the Tennessee Valley. The 500 mb setup on the GFS/Euro/etc. favors a significant severe event, and a few of the models are starting to catch on to greater destabilization than indicated earlier, and some of this could be nocturnal. 30% hatched on the D3 currently and I think there's a good chance we see at least a moderate risk by D2/D1.
  25. andyhb
    Lol, now the ensembles back away from the more amplified 3/26 idea. Naturally. Initial troughing isn't amplified enough in the west and there's too much vorticity leaking eastward early + the PV lobe near Hudson Bay is creating confluence that shears the trough out with eastward extent. Looks like it's 3/24 or bust right now.
×
×
  • Create New...