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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. This. Ignoring what weather weenies like us want in favor of what is simpler for the public to understand is the whole purpose of working with social scientists. I don't see any need to trash this decision until we see actual results from the change.
  2. I can't help but think the warming Pacific is influencing it.
  3. Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.
  4. Secondary pulse in the strong trades near the dateline looks to becoming as the intraseasonal interference wanes going into March. Would expect some resurgence in the La Nina especially over the western ENSO regions.
  5. Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific. Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW.
  6. So uh... this pattern seems to be delivering, eh? (I say from Heart of the Arctic, Oklahoma)
  7. You mean Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maue (original creator of the graphics) would seek all the attention they can get? Surely you can’t be serious! (I am serious, and don’t call me Shirley)
  8. Been nice knowing you all, given what has a good chance of happening in OK over the next week or so...
  9. Looking like the real deal folks. Setups like this with amplifying waves coming immediately in behind a PV lobe pushing a strong Arctic high into the Plains (and therefore not needing to worry about Ptype issues around here or even in TX) are exceedingly rare. The first storm next week is one thing (and obviously there is bust potential from dry slots/lack of moisture initially/exact track/suppression due to the Arctic air mass, etc.), but the real wild card is if it can be doubled up with the wave on its heels, which seems to be an increasingly possible scenario. Does remind me a bit of the cold snap and back to back storms in Feb 2011. Regardless, the answer to the question in the thread/topic description should be a resounding yes.
  10. Curious to see the exact periods of projected tornado events there. I have some disagreements with doing that, namely all of the things that could go wrong that can't be forecasted on the sub-seasonal/seasonal timescale. Are these periods just when "western trough/eastern ridge" is expected?
  11. Lol, all the climate models are like "what severe weather season". NMME, CANSIPS, Euro, you name it. Poleward retracted jet + torching southwest/south-central US + dry.
  12. A storm like the one towards the end of the 12z Euro would have almost unlimited potential with that Arctic air mass in the cold sector. That would be a rare combination of that plus a wide open Gulf. Shows the potential here if we can get a wave to properly amplify.
  13. Not going to see many crazier -NAO blocks than this on the 00z Euro at 168.
  14. Wants to torch the southwest/south-central States for spring too, not ideal for severe weather potential. I do wonder if it's killing the Nina in the western zones too quickly though.
  15. Track notwithstanding, powerful trough/jet streak + good moisture transport + cold air dumping in behind = potential for a blockbuster storm should the trough ejection go properly here (00z UK is an example of how that can be screwed up). 00z parallel GFS was dumping some stupid numbers over NE and IA. Edit: 00z Euro also an example of how the ejection can get screwed up.
  16. -PDO signature getting stronger over the last week per CDAS (cooling along the West Coast + warming over the north-central Pacific), as is the +TNI over the ENSO regions (Nino 4 substantially cooler than Nino 1.2).
  17. Lol @ McHenrySnow reacting with a weenie emoji to this. You're not acting like a degreed meteorologist, man.
  18. That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes.
  19. Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
  20. Not a single mention of the destructive, likely significant tornado in the northern suburbs of Birmingham (Fultondale/Center Point) tonight?
  21. Also can a moderator change the title of this thread, considering it is certainly no longer 2019?
  22. Did some skimming of SSTA data tonight and I'm intrigued by that warm pool centered at ~150˚W and 30˚S to the south of the cold SSTAs with the Nina. Based on looking into some previous analogs around this time, it seems like that strong meridional dipole is not present in years such as 2006, 2009, 2012, 2017, and 2018 (generally quieter severe seasons especially late season). It is more prevalent in several big Nina springs though, including 1974, 1976, and 2011. It's probably to some degree why this CDAS-derived SSTA analog product from Tropical Tidbits is essentially grouping a who's who of Nina springs with a lot of tornadoes/severe weather, including some with very large outbreaks. You can see the SSTA dipole present in the Southern Hemisphere in the mean here.