andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Have a pretty optimistic view that this will be the catalyst for a reanalysis of tornadoes from recent years for revisions to their ratings.
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Plains States Observations and Discussion Thread
andyhb replied to lookingnorth's topic in Central/Western States
Locally significant tornado threat possible over NE OK and NW AR tomorrow, in the vicinity of a modifying outflow boundary from tonight's MCS along the OK/KS border. -
Could always tell (and appreciate) when it was Burns who was moderating since he treated it all as it should be treated -> as a principal disciplining unruly children. RIP to a good man.
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Why are we trying to spin this as a good thing? Seriously. There is no good reason to end SSMIS regardless of what program it is a part of. The other microwave imagery is significantly degraded compared to SSMIS.
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So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.
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F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad. Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.
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Wednesday could be pretty gnarly in the region especially if the 18z Euro or 00z NAM 3 km are on the right track.
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That cell might be rather photogenic if you can get a view of it.
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Pretty curious to see how today plays out in this region. Very potent vort max should provide a lot of dynamic support for strong convection, although the mid level lapse rates/instability definitely leave something to be desired (which immediately makes me question the height of the ceiling). Seems a supercell storm mode may be favored though, which given the magnitude of the low level shear should be a cause for some concern.
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At least 23 fatalities from that devastating E KY tornado last night, now the deadliest single tornado since Mayfield in the US. The damage near London is catastrophic.
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Fatalities confirmed in London KY from the long-tracked destructive tornado that went through Somerset (Pulaski Co.) and London (Laurel Co.) earlier.
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Somerset KY tornado.
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2 fatalities in Scott Co. MO from earlier tornado. Large tornado down W of Somerset KY rn. This has indeed turned into a very significant/widespread event.
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Tornado down, power flashes. This is bad.
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St. Louis might be in trouble here. Rapidly organizing low level circulation moving right towards downtown.
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Veered surface winds are the only thing that is having me question the exact ceiling re: tornado threat with this one. Otherwise, pretty much everything is primed.
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Lansing getting hammered by the strongest part of that line right now.
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Tornado just made a direct hit on Mayville WI, pop. >5000.
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Tornado in progress near Juneau WI right now.
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Those are some impressive obs across N/central IL right now. Lots of upper 80s temps/low 70s dewpoints with backed surface winds. Should moisture stay near that level, this could really change the game (in a bad way) for the Chicago area later.
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00z HRRR gets way too warm down south, outflowy/hail-driven mess if that's the case. Still has a few supercells in Wisconsin. Edit: And shows what would likely be a major severe weather outbreak on Friday across the OV/Mid South.
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The MPAS variants like this idea too. Given the environment, that cell would be a whopper and probably significantly tornadic.
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Most of the high res guidance has this now.
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Friday (5/16) should be added to this thread. Think it has more potential to become a widespread severe episode than Thursday, which may be a bit more localized pending moisture quality.
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Friday could also be a problem for areas further south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Shortwaves with zonal flow down there can be quite prolific.
