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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Acapulco is in trouble from this one if it continues to outpace intensity forecasts/doesn't fall apart on approach. Current official track essentially puts the RFQ right over the bay/city. Some Pauline '97 vibes with how it parallels the coast for a bit too, which produced extreme flooding in Guerrero.
  2. andyhb
    12z guidance, particularly the Euro, are not painting a pretty picture for 94L regarding the Antilles. MDR upper air pattern is amazingly favorable for it this late in the season in an El Nino year, plenty of heat content/warm SSTs to work with as well.
  3. andyhb
    https://twitter.com/seekndstroy7809/status/1699937840262512887?s=46&t=lVM9qxUr3uVWV5VH8ESp6g This may be a first.
  4. andyhb
    The new HAFS-A is literal weenie bait, gets down to 900 mb with 178 kt (205 mph) sustained winds in the next 36 hours. That would break the Atlantic record for wind speed by 15 mph (Allen, 1980).
  5. andyhb
    Getting even better.
  6. andyhb
    Basically a perfectly formed inner core on the latest microwave satellite imagery. This is likely going to be pushing Cat 5 in this first recon pass.
  7. andyhb
    Hurricane Jova is a monster right now. Current advisory has it at 130 mph/953 mb, but I guarantee it is considerably stronger.
  8. andyhb
    Potential Northeast storms are so annoying to track, most notably due to the constant influx of unnecessary 1938 comparisons that are bound to arise.
  9. andyhb
    A lot of very strong members with potential Lee. Looks like a potential long tracker/high ACE producer at minimum. Not an auto-fish look either.
  10. andyhb
    00z NAM 3 km is absolutely ridiculous rainfall wise and particularly in the orographic enhancement areas of the San Bernardino and San Jacinto mountains. Those totals (10-20” in less than 3 days) would be catastrophic for the surrounding runoff areas.
  11. andyhb
    Heading for some pretty densely populated areas in Augusta Co. over the next hour or so.
  12. andyhb
    Storm of most concern at this time looks to be the one approaching the Staunton/Waynesboro VA areas. Strong meso aloft on that cell.
  13. andyhb
    I don't know if you want to reach convective temp if you want to maximize severe potential here. Need shear to increase.
  14. andyhb
    LCLs aren't ideal in that sounding either, although I'm guessing the HRRR is overmixing, which might also be affecting the modeled wind fields.
  15. andyhb
    Going to need to see improvements in the wind profiles over the Mid Atlantic coinciding with convection to get a higher tornado/sig wind threat here. Current VADs from the area are pretty paltry on low level shear (and the RAP doesn't offer substantial improvements). They are better back in E TN/E KY though.
  16. andyhb
    Multiple vortex confirmed with that.
  17. andyhb
    No EML = no bueno in the Northeast. Banacos and Ekster 2010, all.
  18. andyhb
    Classic Michigan underperformance... again.
  19. andyhb
    Feel like the low magnitude of deep layer shear and iffy mid-level lapse rates/lack of an EML are going to curb this a fair amount. Would assume messy storm mode.
  20. andyhb
    Easy sig tor in this video.
  21. andyhb
    The larger of the twins out west looked strong from the video.
  22. andyhb
    You sure about that? RAP seems behind on recovery.
  23. andyhb
    No seriously, what a fucking terrible survey that was after learning more about it. Especially compared to the one from the Didsbury AB tornado from 7/1.
  24. andyhb
    First damage I've seen out of the Shoals IN area.
  25. andyhb
    20k feet at least. Can confirm there was never a TORR on it despite the TDS and intense couplet as it moved from the IND to LMK CWAs.
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