andyhb

Tornado looks imminent heading towards Abilene.

Good lord.

Also on Freddy McKinney's live stream. 6 of the last 7 days have had tornadoes now.

Tornado in progress on the Anson TX supercell and there was one earlier near Ballinger as well.

Tuesday has some serious potential pending the convection from Monday. You do not troughs of this magnitude come through in May very often and that secondary jet streak rotating around the southern periphery of the occluded upper low should amplify flow fields considerably with a (potentially) very large and strongly unstable warm sector available.

12z guidance looks overall pretty dangerous on Monday, especially in KS. Some big time dates popping up in both the Great Plains and Southern Plains sectors of the 12z CIPS analogs. Biggest questions are again going to be related to trough timing (how much does it slow down) and amplitude.

Best shots I've seen of the Hollister wedge.

And now a major anticyclonic tornado with a very strong TDS just south of the original tornado. This is absolutely insane.

Violent tornado east of Hollister, nearly stationary.

Big cone tornado on Vermilion.

Spectacular tornado near Westmoreland KS right now.

Fatality confirmed from the Winchester IN tornado from 3/14.

Sulphur OK tornado rated prelim EF3 by OUN.

Okemah got spared. Dickson on the other hand is in very dire straits right now.

Major tornado north of Marietta heading towards Ardmore and Dickson.

Massive wedge tornado near Holdenville earlier.

Environment near these storms is extreme. 500+ m2/s2 ESRH and STP of 6-7.

Large tornado just went on the west side of Ardmore.

Uh oh.

Still all hype now, Naso?

Major tornado in the W Omaha burbs!

Large wedge tornado in progress near Elba NE.

Ohio has literally been the most active state for tornadoes this year. Please read more and post less, you're clogging the thread.

You're also applying recency bias to this whole discussion and assuming that's going to carry over for 4/25-28. IMO the character (and also background climatology) of this sequence is different, substantially so, than other events that have "underperformed" earlier this year. Already, the moisture quality for tomorrow looks much better than 4/15 in a similar area. The other big factor that could really set Saturday off is the lack of influence from the sub-tropical jet, which is shunted southward by the passage of the first shortwave on Thursday/Friday. That likely removes a number of caveats that have affected other events this year detrimentally.