andyhb

Yeah this is phenomenal.

That is absolutely unreal.

They’ve had numerous 0 or 1/16th mile visibility reports over the past couple hours, I’m not so sure that’s sensor failure.

I mean by definition, it would be extremely rare to have two historic LES events over the course of just over a month.

I'm still a bit suspicious of how far north the 00z NAM is with the primary surface low during its main development though given the location of the strongest upper level diffluence presented in the model (and also in the 18z Euro, which was the more impressive solution). Such a difference could make or a break a major storm for many areas, particularly in Michigan/NW OH/N IN.

Conditions on Lake Erie and Ontario late Friday into Saturday are going to be absolutely nuts.

Probably should have a separate thread for this thing here.

Matures too late on the Euro.

GFS way west. Gonna be another cutter before long lol.

Could actually see severe blizzard conditions verify over a pretty large area if this thing is as intense as it could be. This one checks off all the boxes as of now. “A severe blizzard has winds over 72 km/h (45 mph), near zero visibility, and temperatures of −12 °C (10 °F) or lower.“

This dude is kind of an idiot tbh, not a great source for vetting.

A fitting finale for this historic event. Additional low level convergence near/along the cold front is probably enhancing this thing quite a bit. Would have to think that this will kick several places over 80" for the event and many over 70".

That’s the national versus the state record.

This might be the best photo I've seen yet of the "white wall".

Band is shifting/expanding north again slowly, southern Buffalo suburbs are just going to have ungodly totals that may eclipse 2014 in spots.

I am a bit suspicious of the Orchard Park measurement given it is so much higher than the rest.

This is why I think that this event in the end may end up being more impactful than the 2014 event. You simply can't shovel this kind of stuff in these amounts.

Holy sh*t.

Jesus.

The latest HRRR is pretty damn ridiculous.

I'd probably want to be in central Erie County, maybe a bit north. Lightning is definitely a possibility, if not a likelihood.

Just chiming in to say this one looks like a doozy, certainly haven't seen this type of potential since Nov 2014. Duration might exceed that and the thermos shouldn't be terribly far off thanks to the record lake temperatures. Looks a potential once-in-a-decade type event if not larger.

Now have a pair of EF4 tornadoes confirmed from this outbreak. Powderly TX and Clarksville TX/Idabel OK.

So far the HRRR has the best handle on current convective evolution, with the NAM 3 km and NSSL WRF being far too bullish on early elevated convection. The environment close to the warm front later looks pretty dangerous from CDS towards OKC. Seems like a low-level flow has ramped up in forecasts as well the closer we've gotten to verification.

Monday is trouble for S KS and OK. There will be early convection with the lead wave that passes through, but there is a signal across the board for recovery in its wake with upper 60s dewpoints returning towards the KS/OK border as a strong/progressive shortwave emerges from the Rockies. Should we see recovery and initiation, which I think is nearly certain in S KS and slightly less likely further south, it will take place in a very moist low level environment with hodographs favorable for tornadic supercells. There is regional severe event potential depending on how many storms develop.