andyhb

Perhaps the best benchmark for specifically W NC here is comparing to the Great Flood of 1916, which was the previous flood of record for the area and was caused by back-to-back hurricanes and their inland rainfall. The death toll from that was approximately 80 via most sources I can find. Chatter I've seen from local news outlets echoing first responders indicate this may significantly exceed that. I don't see 1000 deaths, but I could easily see 200-300 overall, which would make it the deadliest tropical cyclone in the United States aside from Katrina in decades. It already is deadlier in SC than Hugo and is the deadliest in NC likely since the mid-1800s. There are not enough superlatives to describe this event.

WRAL reporting 35 dead in Buncombe Co. alone.

35 dead in Buncombe Co. alone per WRAL.

Have seen some EMA chatter about this being comparable to Katrina's impact in LA/MS for E TN and W NC in terms of the extent of the destruction and infrastructure disruption. Certainly comparable to Agnes and Camille at the very least in terms of inland impacts.

This flooding in W NC and E TN is just about as bad as it gets. Like Camille was for central VA or Agnes was for central PA.

Probably the strongest message I have ever seen from Brad Panovich.

To be fair, the Tampa/St. Petersburg area is flooding badly right now. This is going to be a very costly storm for that area, even though it didn't hit them directly.

Extreme velocities showing up from the dealiased TLH radar data right now. 175-180+ mph in the northern eyewall.

Might be the best the eyewall has looked from the Tampa radar in terms of closure.

Tops to over 60k feet.

Extreme wind warning issued for the landfall location and northward to the GA border.

I mean a difference of 1.6 mb when it comes to strengthening is notable.

Huh? 2/3 of the eyewall is enveloped in some really intense convection right now. That's still going to drop the pressure even if one quad is a bit ragged.

Potential aborted recon mission here. This does not happen often at all from a TC itself.

We are talking about Agnes in PA level flooding here.

The French Broad River (river that flows through Asheville NC) is forecast to crest more than 10 feet above the previous record at Fletcher, which is in the southern part of the metro.

Yeah the western part is definitely weak and still feeling some of the dry air.

Warm waters don't mean much until it gets rid of the dry air.

But without any context as to what the picture is showing (and the cutting off of the color bars), how is someone supposed to answer that question?

This picture tells me literally nothing.

This map may look substantially different in a few days. The projected track of Helene is into an area that's generally devoid of intense hurricane strikes.

Would be dependent on it mixing out dry air and completing its inner core by tonight/early tomorrow.

Considering the storm makes landfall at sub 920 mb and is moving quite fast, this would be the worst case scenario for GA. Think Michael but larger.

New HWRF is, for lack of a better term, a complete disaster. Makes landfall as a very large/high end Cat 4, takes it over Tallahassee, and then remains sub-960 mb into N GA with gusts that would probably exceed 90 mph over a large area (along with the flooding in the Appalachians).

Why are you still up to this cringe BS?